VZCZCXRO4165
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHNJ #1318/01 3130711
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 090711Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4560
INFO RUCNFUR/DARFUR COLLECTIVE
RUEHTRO/AMEMBASSY TRIPOLI 0339

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NDJAMENA 001318 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2016 
TAGS: PGOV RREL PINR CD SU
SUBJECT: NEW CHADIAN REBEL ALLIANCE--UFDD 
 
 
NDJAMENA 00001318  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: PolOff John O'Leary.  Reason 1.4 (d) 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary.  Three Chadian rebel groups formed a new 
alliance in October 2006.  According to its communique, the 
Union of Forces for Democracy and Development (UFDD) wants to 
organize transparent elections and abhors taking power by 
force.  Nonetheless, it sent an armed column into central 
Chad in October and then, several days later, ambushed 
pursuing Chadian government troops.  Personality conflicts 
and ethnic rivalries among the various rebel groups will keep 
the rebellion divided, thus dissipating the UFDD's potency. 
End comment. 
 
¶2.  (U)  Three Chadian rebel groups announced in a communique 
dated October 10, 2006 that they were forming a new rebel 
alliance, the Union of Forces for Democracy and Development 
(UFDD).  The participating rebel groups are: 
 
--A Gorane group, Union of Force for Development (UFD), 
headed by former Chadian General, Defense Minister, and 
Ambassador Mahamat Nouri Allatchi; 
 
--An Arab groupm, Democratic Revolutionary Council (CDR), 
headed by former Chadian Foreign Minister and Ambassador 
Acheikh Ibni Oumar Said; and 
 
--An Arab faction of the predominately Tama group, United 
Front for Change (FUC), headed by former FUC Secretary 
General Abdelwahid Aboud Makaye, of Ouaddaien origion. 
 
¶3.  (U)  According to the communique, the three groups have 
placed their fighters under a unified command and formed a 
provisional executive bureau to give the UFDD political 
leadership until the organization can hold a congress at an 
unspecified date.  The communique continued with the 
following fundamental principles: 
 
--an affirmation of faith in and attachment to the unity of 
the sons and daughters of Chad; 
 
--a rejection of power seized by armed force and a commitment 
to hold a national forum comprised of representatives of the 
various armed movements, political parties, and civil 
society, for the purpose of deciding how to hold "free, 
transparent and equitable democratic elections". 
 
--a desire to strengthen solidarity and unity among the 
political-military movements and to create "a large, united 
front of forces passionate about peace and justice"; 
 
--a commitment to respect Chadian agreements with 
international and regional partners; 
 
--a commitment to abstain from interfering in the internal 
affairs of other countries; and 
 
--a call on Chad,s partners to help the Chadian people 
"reestablish peace, unity, and justice". 
 
¶4.  (C)  Observers consider the Gorane-Arab alliance 
important because these two groups have historic commercial 
and family ties; the Arabs are the largest Muslim ethnic 
group; and the Gorane are known as fierce fighters.  (Former 
President Hissein Habre was Gorane.)  Further, in the milieu 
of Chadian ethnic politics, both groups traditionally disdain 
the Zaghawa tribe of President Deby and rival rebel leader 
Timan Erdimi (Rally for the Forces of Democracy--RaFD).  The 
UFDD alliance--if it holds--could mark a significant 
development, not only in augmenting unified rebel forces, but 
also in the ability of customarily ethnic-based rebels to 
appeal to larger cross-sections of the Chadian public. 
 
¶5.  (U)  Despite the UFDD's communique rejecting power taken 
by force, the group engages in offensive operations against 
the Deby regime.  In late October, the alliance sent a column 
into central Chad where it briefly menaced the Chadian 
National Army (ANT) before withdrawing toward Central African 
Republic and Sudan.  On October 29, UFDD forces ambushed 
pursuing Chadian forces, killing the ANT's commanding general 
and capturing vehicles, ammunition, and other materiel.  Both 
sides reportedly took heavy casualties. 
 
¶6.  (C)  Despite the reported urgings of Sudanese officials, 
it does not appear at this time that the Chadian rebels will 
be able to unite their major factions in any meaningful way. 
Embassy sources indicate that such an alliance attempted in 
August 2006 between Nouri,s own Union of Force for 
Development (UFD) and Erdimi,s RaFD quickly collapsed due to 
personality clashes between the two leaders.  Additionally, a 
number of sources indicate that the non-Zaghawa rebels are 
 
NDJAMENA 00001318  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
not anxious to replace Zaghawa Deby with Zaghawa Erdimi. 
 
¶7.  (U)  Embassy files indicate that: 
 
--Mahamat Nouri was born in 1947 near Faya Largeau in 
northern Chad.  A member of the Anakaza clan of the Gorane 
tribe, he held the rank of Major General in the ANT and 
served as Minister of Health in 1993, Livestock in 2000, and 
Defense in 2003.  He became Deby,s ambassador to Saudi 
Arabia in late 2004 and held the post until his defection to 
the rebel cause in April 2006.  Embassy sources confirm that 
he has diabetes.  He is characterized as thoughtful, 
cautious, and crafty.  His defection in late spring 2006 was 
considered to be a significant blow to the regime as he is 
believed to hold considerable sway among the Gorane. 
 
--Acheikh Ibni Oumar Said was born on July 13, 1951 in 
N,Djamena.  An ethnic Arab, he served in the Habre 
government as Minister of Education, Defense, and Foreign 
Affairs.  With Deby,s assumption of power in 1990, he became 
Special Counselor to the President and served as Ambassador 
to the United States from 1992 to 1994.  According to press 
reports in 2004, he characterized Deby's desire for a third 
presidential term as an attempt to become "President for 
Life".  He is a long-time opponent of Deby and has spent many 
years in self-imposed exile, but he has never led a robust 
military force. 
 
--Abdelwahid Aboud Makaye, an ethnic Ouaddaien from the 
Abeche region, was Secretary General of the FUC before 
leading a faction into the UFDD.  In a January 2006 interview 
with Radio France International, he stated that the FUC had 
friendly relations with the Sudanese government and had met 
on Sudanese soil.  Although he denied that the group received 
logistical support from the GOS, he was arrested by Sudanese 
authorities and held for several days.  In September 2006, a 
FUC spokesman indicated that Abdelwahid tried to unilaterally 
depose FUC president Mahamat Nour, in violation of the 
organization's bylaws.  (Nour's exact status vis-a-vis the 
FUC is unclear at this time.)  In October, Abdulwahid's 
faction joined the UFDD. 
 
¶8.  (C)  Comment.  It is by no means clear that the UFDD can 
survive any longer than any of the other rebel coalitions. 
Its October foray into Central Chad and successful ambush of 
ANT forces, however, indicate that it can undermine popular 
confidence in President Deby and play havoc with ANT morale. 
Nonetheless, the apparent enmity between the Zaghawa RaFD and 
the non-Zaghawa UFDD will work to Deby's advantage as he 
struggles to defend his regime.  End comment. 
 
¶9.  (U)  Tripoli minimize considered. 
WALL