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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NAHA 000243 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/20/2031 
TAGS: JA PREL MARR
SUBJECT: CONSERVATIVE CANDIDATE NAKAIMA WIN OKINAWA GOVERNOR'S RACE 
 
REF: NAHA 0241 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Kevin K. Maher, Consul General, American 
Consulate General Naha, DOS. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
¶1. (C) Summary.  On November 19, Okinawan voters elected 
conservative candidate Hirokazu NAKAIMA over reformist, 
anti-base candidate Keiko ITOKAZU as their new governor by a 
margin of 5.6 points. Nakaima's victory showed the Okinawan 
electorate rejected Itokazu's focus on the elimination of Marine 
Corp Air Station (MCAS) Futenma and other U.S. bases from 
Okinawa by 2014. Nakaima has publicly stated willingness to 
accept within Okinawa a MCAS Futenma replacement facility (FRF). 
 Nakaima's stress on the need to lower Okinawa's high 
unemployment rate - the highest in the nation - and development 
of the prefecture's industrial base also resonated well.  In 
pre-election polling, voters picked the economy as the most 
important issue in this election.  Itokazu also failed to carry 
most of the base hosting communities, including Ginowan city, 
which currently hosts MCAS Futenma. However, editors and 
reformists refused to admit defeat for her anti-base position, 
blaming Itokazu's loss not on her policies but on her late entry 
into the race, about a month behind Nakaima.  Reformists warned 
both the GOJ and USG that the 300,000 plus votes cast for 
Itokazu show a large number of Okinawans remain opposed to the 
relocation of the FRF within the prefecture.  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Conservative candidate Hirokazu Nakaima won a decisive 
victory over reformist, anti-base Keiko Itokazu 347,303 votes to 
309,985 votes with a margin of 5.6 points.  Also-ran Okinawa 
Independence Party candidate Chousuke Yara received 6,220 votes. 
 Voter turnout, while low at 64.54 percent, was up 7.32 points 
from the 2002 gubernatorial race in which Governor Keiichi 
INAMINE was elected to his second term. 
 
¶3. (C) Itokazu's opposition to the relocation of MCAS Futenma 
within Okinawa and call for eliminating U.S. bases within the 
prefecture by 2014 failed to resonate with voters, including 
those in base hosting communities. In Nago City, location of 
Camp Schwab and future cite of the V-shaped, two-runway FRF, 
Nakaima beat Itokazu by 12 points, 16,090 to 12,537.  Ginowan 
City, current home to MCAS Futenma, also selected Nakaima over 
Itokazu 21,944 to 20,138.  Ginowan continued its conservative 
streak by electing conservative candidate Atsushin SAKAIMA in a 
bi-election for a vacant Okinawa prefectural assembly seat over 
the reformist candidate Seigyo ARAKAKI 15,067 votes to 10,940 
votes. Among other base hosting communities, Okinawa City and 
Kadena Town (Kadena Air Force Base), Onna Village and Kin Town 
(Camp Hansen), Ginoza Village (under the flight route of the 
proposed V-shaped FRF) and Urasoe City (Camp Kinser) went for 
Nakaima.  Only the small towns of Chatan Village (Kadena AFB) 
and Kitanakagusuku Village (Camp Foster) went for Itokazu. 
 
¶4. (C) As mentioned in reftel, Nakaima might not be a bed of 
roses for the USG or GOJ.  Following his victory, Nakaima 
reiterated his opposition to the V-plan because it was decided 
without input from Okinawans.  He also said that he would 
 
NAHA 00000243  002 OF 004 
 
 
continue Governor Keiichi Inamine's polices, which indicates he 
may continue to press for Inamine's proposal to build a 
temporary heliport at Camp Schwab.  Nonetheless, he maintained 
his flexibility by adding he would participate in the 
GOJ-OPG-municipal consultations to come up with a plan that 
incorporates the voices of Okinawans.  Nakaima also publicly 
back pedaled on his pledge to eliminate the danger of MCAS 
Futenma within three years, saying that he never used the word 
"eliminate" and had simply suggested that the GOJ work towards 
reducing the danger in three years. The morning after the 
election Nakaima told the press that with regard to the FRF 
plan, he will consult with the GOJ and the local government of 
Nago, and that he will represent the local voice.  Since Nago 
Mayor Yoshikazu SHIMABUKURO has essentially accepted the FRF 
plan, we find this a positive sign. 
 
¶5. (C) Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito said in the 
press that Nakaima's win reflected Okinawans' desire to focus on 
the economy.  LDP Okinawa said that Nakaima's economic policy 
was very concrete and supported by voters and this would help 
him to fulfill his public pledge. Komeito Okinawa more bluntly 
called Nakaima's win, "a victory of Okinawan people's common 
sense."  LDP Tokyo also welcomed Nakaima's election.  LDP 
Headquarters Policy Affairs Research Committee Specialist 
Shigenobu TAMURA told us privately that the LDP is comfortable 
with Nakaima and believes he will relax his policies post 
election and come to support the agreed FRF plan. 
 
¶6.  (C) Itokazu and the reformist parties backing her publicly 
blamed her loss on her late entry into the race, about a month 
behind Nakaima.  Itokazu said her policies did not have time to 
reach the voters. Still she emphasized that the more than 
300,000 votes that she got showed Okinawans' desire not to have 
new base construction on the island.  Itokazu's Okinawa 
Socialist Masses Party (OSMP) lamented her failure to penetrate 
into the floating vote due to the delay in selecting the 
reformist candidate.  The Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) called 
the result "unfortunate," saying Itokazu was the best candidate 
for the reformist camp, but they did not have enough time.  It 
added that if there had been another 15 days, Itokazu could have 
won.  The Socialist Democratic Party, Japanese Communist Party 
(JCP) and Jiyu Rengo also decried the loss, but warned the GOJ 
and USG not to interpret the election results as Okinawans' 
acceptance of the GOJ's policies.  JCP and Jiyu Rengo said that 
300,000 votes for Itokazu showed that Okinawans did not want new 
base construction.  Only center-right Sozo cited Itokazu's 
policies as the reason for her loss.  The party told Okinawans 
to accept the result as the result, noted that people put 
economic issues ahead of base issues and called on Nakaima to 
work to decrease Okinawa's unemployment rate by half. 
 
¶7. (U) From the start of the campaign, Okinawa's two major 
newspapers, the Ryukyu Shimpo and Okinawa Times, portrayed "the 
base problem" as the decisive issue in the campaign.  They 
focused especially on the planned relocation of Marine Corps Air 
Station (MCAS) Futenma from urban Ginowan City to rural Henoko, 
within Camp Schwab. During a dinner at the Consul General's 
residence November 6, eight local journalists complained that 
Nakaima and Itokazu rarely strayed from their talking points. 
 
NAHA 00000243  003 OF 004 
 
 
Two discussed heatedly how best to get Nakaima to reveal more 
clearly his position on relocating MCAS Futenma.  The consensus 
of the journalists was that Nakaima would approve some version 
of relocation to Camp Schwab, but his strategic ambiguity 
successfully muddied the waters so they could not accuse him of 
giving in on this key point. 
 
¶8. (U) The election day morning Okinawa Times Editorial went so 
far as to say MCAS Futenma relocation was the main point of 
contention.  It pointed out that Itokazu had taken a firm stand 
of opposing relocation within Okinawa, and described Nakaima as 
criticizing the opposition for being unrealistic.  The editorial 
threw in non sequiters tying the Koizumi and Abe administrations 
to the Bush administration's war on terror, the uncertainty 
raised by the resignation of Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld, and 
an over-reliance on the US-Japan Security alliance.  It ended by 
calling people to vote in a manner they would not regret. 
 
¶9. (U) The two papers did acknowledge that economic issues such 
as development funding, unemployment, financial restructuring, 
medical care and social welfare programs figured in the race. 
Both papers complained of lack of concrete, specific plans by 
the two leading candidates for dealing with these issues.  A 
Kyodo News Service poll taken in early November showed Okinawan 
voters put base issues behind economic growth, social welfare 
and unemployment. 
 
¶10. (C) Editorials after the election echoed the reformists' 
position that the 300,000 plus votes for Itokazu showed 
Okinawans' opposition to a FRF within Okinawa. The Ryukyu Shimpo 
admitted that Okinawans had entrusted the Okinawa Prefectural 
Government (OPG) to Nakaima because of his economic background 
and strong connections with the GOJ.  However, it warned that if 
the GOJ took this result as a sign to proceed with US military 
transformation, it would have misunderstood the will of 
Okinawans.  The Okinawa Times called on the new administration 
to develop concrete policies to revitalize Okinawa's economy, 
assessing that voters had selected Nakaima because they put 
priority on economic issues and promotion measures.  The paper 
explained Itokazu's loss as Okinawan voters feeling they were 
powerless to resolve the base issue.  It also noted that many 
Okinawans support Itokazu's policies opposing new base 
construction in Okinawa and Nakaima's victory is not a sign that 
voters accept US military realignment. The editorial said 
Okinawans still want MCAS Futenma relocated outside of Okinawa 
and that Nakaima should convey this to both the GOJ and USG. 
 
¶11. (C) Conservative Nago Mayor Yoshikazu Shimabukuro welcomed 
Nakaima's election and asked Nakaima to show "understanding" on 
the V-shaped FRF, which the Mayor accepted in discussions with 
the GOJ earlier this year. Shimabukuro said he wants to discuss 
various policies with Nakaima and the GOJ on northern area 
economic promotion measures, medical and welfare policy, and 
base issues. 
 
¶12. (C) Comment. We anticipate that Governor-elect Nakaima, 
shortly after his December 10 inauguration, will join the 
consultative meetings with the GOJ in order to demonstrate that 
he can express Okinawa views to the GOJ and that they are 
 
NAHA 00000243  004 OF 004 
 
 
listening.  We also think he will come around to accepting the 
agreed FRF plan, although it remains to be seen if he will try 
to place some conditions on that acceptance, as his predecessor 
Inamine did with the old SACO plan.  It also looks as if Nakaima 
is backing away from his pledge to "eliminate" the danger of 
MCAS Futenma within three years, although we expect the 
reformist camp will attempt to hold his feet to the fire on 
this.  In any event, we believe that our best approach is to 
continue with our position that we have reached agreement with 
the GOJ on a good realignment plan for Okinawa that will greatly 
reduce the burden of our bases here, that we expect the GOJ to 
continue implementing that plan in a timely manner, and that we 
look forward to cooperating with the new Governor in doing so. 
End Comment. 
MAHER