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86727
2006-11-22 13:22:00
06MEXICO6569
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
06MEXICO5318|06MEXICO6546
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TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 006569 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/21/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL MX
SUBJECT: AMLO ASSUMES SHADOW PRESIDENCY 
 REF: A) MEXICO 6546 B) MEXICO 5318 
 
Classified By: ACTING POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR ALAN D. MELTZER, REA 
SONS: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) On November 20, defeated PRD presidential candidate 
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) inaugurated himself 
"legitimate president" of Mexico before a crowd of thousands 
of supporters in the city's central square.  Although large, 
the crowd was nevertheless noticeably smaller than those 
present at AMLO's major post-election protests.  Perhaps more 
important than how many people attended the event, however, 
was who did not attend: all five PRD state governors were 
prominently absent, suggesting that AMLO may be losing 
support among some of the party's most powerful (and 
moderate) figures.  With AMLO's "inauguration" behind us, all 
attention now turns to Calderon's official inauguration on 
December 1, which the PRD has threatened to block.  Although 
the PRD will surely undertake some form of protest at the 
inauguration, AMLO's less than spectacular showing on 
November 20 could give the upper hand to those PRD 
legislators advocating for a more low-key, symbolic form of 
protest.  End Summary. 
 
Big turnout, yet less than previous rallies 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) On November 20, throngs of AMLO supporters gathered 
in the city's central square or Zocalo to attend AMLO's 
self-styled inauguration.  Crowd estimates -- which are 
notoriously unreliable and politicized in Mexico -- ranged 
from 100,000 to 1 million, although based on crowd estimates 
at prior events, we believe the crowd size was closer to the 
lower end of that range.  While turnout filled the Zocalo, 
poloff observed that attendance fell far short of that at 
AMLO's other post-election rallies, notably the September 16 
National Democratic Convention (NDC) (ref B), where the 
Zocalo was tightly packed and hangers-on overflowed into the 
surrounding streets. 
 
¶3. (C) Poloff observed the event with PRD-affiliated city 
government (GDF) officials, Ulises Lara Lopez, Director 
General in the Secretary of Government, and his advisor Raul 
de la Paz.  While Lara Lopez and de la Paz recognized that 
turnout was lower than at the PRD-sponsored NDC, they 
professed pleasant surprised with the attendance, explaining 
that far less effort was put into this event than the NDC. 
For example, they claimed that fewer resources were not used 
this time to transport people to the event and considerably 
less time and energy was put into advertisement/promotion. 
 
The shadow cabinet 
------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) At the ceremony, AMLO introduced the 12 members of 
his shadow cabinet who, according to the press, will be paid 
a monthly salary of 50,000 pesos (approximately USD $4,700) 
for their shadow services.  As with the turnout at his 
"inauguration," AMLO's "cabinet" is most notable for whom it 
excludes:  while numerous AMLO loyalists and former members 
of his team when he was Mexico City mayor are included, there 
are few, if any, PRD heavyweights, suggesting that party 
members who are not beholden to AMLO are keeping a safe 
distance. 
 
¶5.  (U) After the presentation of the shadow cabinet, AMLO 
was presented with a "presidential sash" with his chosen 
seal, that of an open-winged eagle -- the same symbol used by 
revered 19th century president Benito Juarez.  In his 
"inaugural address," AMLO articulated a program of 20 points 
for his shadow government which included proposals for a new 
constitution and institutional reforms. 
 
Other PRD attendees 
------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U) Also sharing the stage with AMLO were current Mexico 
City Mayor Alejandro Encinas and Mayor-elect Marcelo Ebrard. 
Others PRD heavyweights present included PRD President Leonel 
Cota, PRD General Secretary Guadalupe Acosta, PRD co-founder 
 
MEXICO 00006569  002 OF 002 
 
 
Porfirio Munoz Ledo, former Senator Jesus Ortega, and PRD 
legislators such as Leonel Godoy and Raymundo Cardenas. 
Conspicuous by their absence, however, were PRD moral leader 
Cuauhtemoc Cardenas and all five PRD governors. 
 
Next step: December 1 
--------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) With AMLO's "inauguration" behind us, all attention 
now turns to Calderon's official inauguration on December 1, 
which PRD legislators have threatened to protest and/or 
block.  A speaker at the November 20 ceremony called for AMLO 
supporters to gather in the Zocalo early on December 1 to 
protest Calderon's inauguration.  Juan Jose Garcia Ochoa, a 
former PRD federal deputy and a member of Ebrard's transition 
team, told poloff in a November 21 meeting that the PRD had 
decided to organize a protest in the Zocalo rather than 
outside the Chamber of Deputies -- the site of the official 
inauguration -- where there was greater potential for a clash 
with security forces.  Garcia Ochoa said that the best 
resolution to the inaugural controversy would be for Calderon 
to choose an alternate site, which presumably would give the 
PRD a symbolic victory.  In that case, he said PRD 
legislators would protest in a more mild form, such as by 
boycotting the event.  If Calderon takes the oath in Congress 
-- as he continues to publicly insist -- Garcia Ochoa said 
the PRD legislators' protest would be ugly but 
non-aggressive.  Garcia Ochoa claimed (perhaps 
disingenuously) that no matter where the ceremony is held, 
PRD legislators would not seek to prevent Calderon from 
taking the oath of office, because to do so would be illegal. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (C) The November 20 event was enough of a success to 
enable AMLO to save face, but it fell short of what was 
needed to give his movement a much-needed shot of momentum. 
The absence of all five PRD governors from the event was a 
particular blow, adding to the appearance that AMLO is losing 
support within the party hierarchy.  President-elect 
Calderon's announcement of several key cabinet appointees 
early on November 21 also served to ensure that AMLO's day in 
the spotlight was brief.  Nevertheless, AMLO remains a 
significant political force with considerable ability to draw 
the masses and it is far too soon to write him off.  As he 
travels the country over the coming months, we will get a far 
better idea of the strength of his support outside his Mexico 
City political base.  Moreover, in the months ahead, AMLO 
will be closely monitoring the Calderon administration's 
performance and will be ready to exploit Calderon's 
inevitable missteps which, depending upon their severity, 
could give his movement a new lease on life at any time. 
 
¶9.  (C) As for Calderon's inauguration, the less than 
spectacular success of Monday's event may give PRD moderates 
the upper hand in party deliberations over whether to 
undertake a symbolic protest or to actually seek to prevent 
Calderon from taking the oath of office in the Congress. 
Also noteworthy is the decision to gather PRD supporters in 
the Zocalo, rather than outside of Congress, making a 
conscious effort to avoid conflict.  While the PRD surely 
will seek to embarrass Calderon at his inauguration, the 
prospects for an aggressive confrontation are somewhat 
smaller now than they were last week. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
BASSETT