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86237
2006-11-17 23:37:00
06MEXICO6546
Embassy Mexico
CONFIDENTIAL
06MEXICO5318|06MEXICO6278
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RUEAWJA/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHDC
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RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL
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TAGS: ECON FBI DHS PAS DAO CONS OPAD DCM POL AID
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MEXICO 006546 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016 
TAGS: ECON FBI DHS PAS DAO CONS OPAD DCM POL AID
SUBJECT: PRD PREPARES FOR TWIN INAUGURATIONS 
 REF: A. MEXICO 05318 
     ¶B. MEXICO 06278 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL MINISTER-COUNSELOR CHARLES V. BARCLAY, REASONS 
: 1.4 (B/D) 
 
Summary 
-------- 
 
¶1. (C) Poloff met with PRD leaders and Mexico City government 
(GDF) officials to discuss PRD plans for Andres Manuel Lopez 
Obrador's (AMLO) self-styled inauguration on November 20 and 
for the official inauguration of President-elect Felipe 
Calderon on December 1.  For November 20, the PRD expects an 
event similar to the September 16 PRD-sponsored National 
Democratic Convention, with GDF officials planning for a 
large turnout and party officials seeking to dampen 
expectations.  With respect to Calderon's official 
inauguration on December 1, the PRD leadership has decided to 
take some form of protest action at the ceremony, although 
party moderates are advocating for a symbolic protest, and 
party radicals have vowed to physically prevent Calderon from 
taking the oath of office.  PRD senate coordinator Navarrette 
told poloffs that the best resolution would be having the 
December 1 inauguration at a location other than the 
Congress, suggesting that many in his party would settle for 
such a symbolic victory. 
 
The PRD prepares for AMLO's self-inauguration 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (C) The PRD and allied parties PT and Convergencia (a.k.a. 
the "United Progressive Front" or FAP), have been preparing 
for AMLO's self-styled inauguration, which will take place on 
Monday, November 20, in Mexico City's central square or 
Zocalo.  GDF officials are planning for a turnout similar to 
the one achieved at the September 15, PRD-sponsored National 
Democratic Convention (NDC), when 200,000 people are 
estimated to have thronged the Zocalo (see reftel A).  GDF 
Secretary of Government Ricardo Ruiz told us that all 
 
SIPDIS 
necessary security precautions were being taken to prepare 
for the event.  At the same time, he warned that some radical 
groups might set up protest camps in the Zocalo again.  While 
the GDF is planning for a major turnout, PRD federal deputy 
Cuauhtemoc Sandoval -- perhaps seeking to dampen expectations 
-- downplayed the prospects for a heavy turnout, arguing that 
since the end of the post-election crisis, AMLO's civil 
disobedience movement had lost some of its fervor. 
 
¶3. (C) Mary Carmen Soria, assistant to AMLO advisor Dr. Perez 
Gay, said that the November 20 event would be similar to the 
NDC, with some formalities, including the "swearing-in" 
ceremony and the presentation of AMLO's "legitimate cabinet" 
(see reftel B).  When poloff questioned why AMLO did not 
choose current PRD legislators or respected PRD heavyweights 
for his cabinet, party contacts gave a uniform response, 
noting that AMLO needed people who could work full-time on 
the civil resistance movement.  On the other hand, Dr. Jose 
Fernandez Santillin, political science professor at Monterrey 
Tech, hypothesized that (1) either PRD heavyweights were 
offered positions and turned them down because they were 
trying to protect their political interests/reputation, or 
(2) AMLO, a pragmatic politician, made a conscious decision 
to choose those whom he could control. 
 
PRD vows to impede Calderon's inauguration 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (C) While the final logistical preparations are being made 
for AMLO's self-inauguration, the PRD continues to debate its 
next major protest action.  In a November 11 meeting, the 
PRD's National Political Council -- the party's highest 
governing body -- formally decided to follow through on 
threats to "impede" the December 1 ceremony in which 
President-elect Felipe Calderon will take the oath of office 
in Congress' Chamber of Deputies. 
 
¶5.  (C) However, local newspaper Reforma reported that the 
party was divided on protest strategies.  Deputies Cuauhtemoc 
Sandoval and Fernel Galvez said the precise nature of their 
protest might not be decided until a couple of hours before 
the event, and that the possibility remained they would adopt 
some form of symbolic protest short of actually seeking to 
 
MEXICO 00006546  002 OF 002 
 
 
block the event.  PRD's moderates reportedly have proposed 
such actions as boycotting the inauguration, turning their 
backs as Calderon takes the oath, and/or placing black 
blankets on their seats, to symbolize democracy's "death" on 
Election Day, July 2.  The party's radicals, however, are 
insisting on blocking the ceremony at whatever cost.  They 
are considering installing protest camps outside the Chamber 
and occupying the podium days before December 1.  Some PRD 
legislators, however, think it will be difficult to overcome 
the security measures planned for the event.  Many doubt a 
repeat performance of the September 1 protest, when PRD 
legislators took control of the podium in advance of Fox's 
annual address.  An element of surprise was present in the 
September 1 protest; this time the logistics are different 
and the GOM will be prepared. 
 
An alternate location for December 1? 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (C) Because of the PRD threats, some PRI legislators are 
suggesting that Calderon consider taking the oath of office 
elsewhere than in Congress, a suggestion supported by PRD 
officials.  Sandoval, for instance, alluded to President 
Lyndon Johnson's swearing-in on an airplane following 
President Kennedy's assassination.  Ignacio Maravan, a 
political science professor at CIDE and AMLO advisor, told 
poloff that Calderon would by operation of the Constitution 
be considered the "legal" (but not "legitimate") President on 
December 1 and it did not matter if or where he took the 
oath.  In a separate meeting, PRD Senate coordinator Carlos 
Navarrete said that an alternate location would be the best 
resolution for both Calderon and the party. 
 
¶7. (C) GDF Secretary of Government Ricardo Ruiz believes the 
GOM is actually considering an alternate site, even if they 
have not yet officially communicated this to the GDF.  Ruiz 
said the GOM is also exploring other routes and means of 
access to the Chamber of Deputies.  Ideology and political 
affiliations aside, Ruiz said the GDF was committed to 
providing security and avoiding blockades or disturbances 
outside the event.  He told poloff the GDF was going to 
establish a working group with the GOM on November 16 to 
coordinate inauguration security and logistics.  On the other 
hand, Ruiz forewarned that whatever happens inside the 
Chamber was not the GDF's responsibility.  He also admitted 
that he was not privy to PRD legislators' plans. 
 
Comment:  December 1 depends on November 20 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (C)  AMLO's self-styled inauguration could mark a major 
turning point for his civil resistance movement.  He needs a 
significant turnout to regain his lost momentum and keep his 
campaign against Felipe Calderon from degenerating.  Elements 
in his party already are signaling that they are prepared to 
negotiate with Calderon and his team, suggesting party 
discipline may be breaking down.  In addition to a loss of 
support from some quarters in his party, AMLO's cause may be 
losing financial steam:  local news sources report that AMLO 
has now resorted to soliciting contributions from ordinary 
Mexicans in order to fund his "parallel government."  The 
tactics that the PRD chooses for Calderon's inauguration may 
well depend on supporter turnout and enthusiasm at its 
November 20 event. If turnout or enthusiasm on November 20 is 
lower than expected, the PRD might opt for a more moderate 
protest on December 1.  On the other hand, if the November 20 
turnout is large, party radicals may gain more influence and 
seek to actually prevent Calderon from taking the oath of 
office in Congress.  In other words, the success of Monday's 
event may well set the stage for Calderon's inauguration. 
 
 
Visit Mexico City's Classified Web Site at 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/wha/mexicocity 
GARZA