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FM AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE
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INFO RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0741
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RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 0406
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C O N F I D E N T I A L LIBREVILLE 000688 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/24/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM GB
SUBJECT: GABONESE PUBLIC BORED, POLITICIANS FASCINATED, BY 
IMPENDING LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS 
 
REF: LIBREVILLE 300 
 
Classified By: DCM Katherine Dhanani.  Reason: 1.4 (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Most of the 877 candidates competing for 120 
seats during Gabon's December 17 legislative elections have 
no chance of success, regardless of whether the elections are 
free and fair.  The large majority of the winners will likely 
come from President Bongo's Gabonese Democratic Party (PDG), 
which currently holds 88 seats.  Other parties that 
participate in the coalition supporting the President had 
hoped to combine slates with the PDG, but are being forced to 
run alone, against PDG candidates in every constituency. 
Opposition parties decided not to boycott this election after 
Bongo agreed to meet some of their demands for electoral 
reform.  There is limited interest in the contest, although 
some curiosity about whether Bongo promised opposition leader 
Mamboundou assembly seats when Mamboundou left his refuge in 
the South African Embassy in April.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) While the campaign for Gabon's December 17th 
legislative election will officially begin only on December 
2, the Gabonese political class is already fully engaged in 
politicking.  On November 16 the National Electoral 
Commission announced that 877 candidates would compete for 
the 120 seats in the National Assembly.  President Bongo's 
PDG is running candidates in all 120 constituencies, and 
President Bongo began a program of travel to the provinces on 
November 21, ostensibly to review progress on implementation 
of his promised Acts for Gabon.  Several opposition parties 
are fielding broad slates, although their prospects of 
success may be more narrowly linked to geographical 
strengths: the Union of Gabonese People (UPG) has a slate of 
96 candidates, and Zachary Myboto's newly registered Gabonese 
Union for Democracy and Development (UGDD) is fielding 71. 
 
¶3. (U) President Bongo's successful mediation of political 
dialog in May paved the way for participation of the full 
universe of opposition actors in this election.  The 
prospects for a fully democratic exercise looked relatively 
dim in March when security forces launched an early morning 
raid on the headquarters of opposition leader Pierre 
Mamboundou.  After escaping the March 21 raid, UPG leader 
Mamboundou holed up in the South African Embassy until 
holding an April 19 meeting with President Bongo (reftel). 
The truce established at that time paved the way for 
inter-party talks at which opposition leaders aired demands 
for electoral reforms, backed by threats to boycott the 
legislative elections.  Fourteen parties supporting President 
Bongo and twelve opposition parties met from May 12 to 24, 
but failed to agree on most points.  President Bongo listened 
to both sides and announced his decisions on May 26.  Among 
the most important concessions to the opposition were 
decisions to give an official copy of polling station results 
to candidates' representatives, to discontinue the practice 
of holding a separate round of military voting, and to create 
a new, permanent electoral commission.  Bongo refused 
outright an opposition request to reinstate a second round of 
balloting in races where no candidate gains a majority, and 
yielded marginally to demands that a single ballot be 
implemented, agreeing only to experiment with a single ballot 
during local elections in 2007.  Nevertheless, the opposition 
parties unanimously accepted the deal offered by the 
President and agreed to participate in the vote. 
 
¶4. (C) The President also significantly shaped the elections 
when he rejected appeals from some of his supporters, led by 
Deputy Prime Minister Paul Mba Abessole of the Gathering for 
Gabon (RPG), that he form a new coalition party, the Union 
for a Presidential Majority, that would field a single 
candidate in each constituency.  Mba Abessole and other 
leaders in the coalition supporting the President fear their 
chances in direct competition with the better-financed PDG. 
Bongo's decision has led to some interesting match-ups, 
including a face off in one of Libreville's districts between 
Prime Minister Jean Eyeghe Ndong and Vice PM Mba Abessole. 
(Insiders say Abessole stands no chance of winning, but will 
be bought off with a promise of continued prominence in the 
cabinet.) 
 
¶5. (C) Comment: The Gabonese public shows little interest in 
this election, and with good reason: the important contest in 
Gabon was held a year ago, when President Bongo won 
re-election with an implausibly large mandate.  (Bongo's 
prominent role in laying the foundation for these legislative 
elections is further evidence that the Presidency is the one 
post that really matters in Gabon.)  The president has 
skillfully managed the pre-election period to avoid boycotts 
or protests.  The question now becomes the extent to which he 
 
will seek to manage electoral outcomes.  Many observers 
believe that in April Bongo cut a deal with Mamboundou that 
included a promise of a certain number of legislative seats 
for the UPG.  This suggests the election will be massaged to 
create appropriate numbers of winners from different camps, 
most plausibly before election day through the allocation of 
resources, but possibly on election night when results are 
compiled.  PDG party barons, however, have their own human 
and financial resources and appear unlikely to concede seats 
even if the boss requests it.  We will be surprised if the 
PDG takes fewer than the 88 seats it won last time, although 
opposition candidates may win more than the handful of seats 
they won in 2001.  (Most of the eight other parties 
represented in the Assembly are members of the Bongo's 
coalition, and most of the 12 independent legislators also 
support the President.) 
WALKLEY