VZCZCXRO5466
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHKU #4430/01 3141401
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 101401Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY KUWAIT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7569
INFO RUEHEE/ARAB LEAGUE COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 004430 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NSC FOR RAMCHAND, LONDON FOR TSOU, PARIS 
FOR WALLER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KU FREEDOM AGENDA
SUBJECT: FREEDOM AGENDA: RUMBLINGS OF ANOTHER PARLIAMENT 
DISSOLUTION 
 
REF: A. KUWAIT 4418 
     ¶B. KUWAIT 4289 
     ¶C. KUWAIT 4206 
     ¶D. KUWAIT 2871 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (C/NF) Summary: Kuwait has been buzzing with rumors over 
the last two weeks that the Amir may dissolve Parliament 
again, this time unconstitutionally for a period of up to 
three years.  Many Kuwaitis have come out strongly against 
such a move, arguing that it would exacerbate existing 
political tensions and "plunge the country into the vortex of 
the unknown."  While not ruling it out as a possibility, 
most, though not all, of our contacts suggest that an 
unconstitutional dissolution is unlikely and the rumors may 
be intended as a warning to opposition parliamentarians to 
tone down their criticism of the Government.  The Amir and 
the Prime Minister have commented to visitors recently that 
the Parliament is difficult to work with, but that they are 
not surprised by the criticism leveled by legislators and 
will work with them.  On the other hand, the Amir has also 
noted in recent conversations the necessity for the United 
States to recognize that democracy cannot be imposed in the 
region.  Our contacts outside the Government largely blame 
the current political tensions on the Government's weakness 
and poor choice of Cabinet ministers.  They argue that the 
best solution would be to replace the Cabinet with one more 
competent and with closer connections to the political blocs 
in Parliament.  If Parliament is dissolved 
unconstitutionally, some predict the Kuwaiti people and 
political groups would "react strongly" and "take to the 
streets."  Others, however, note that this so-called "reform" 
National Assembly is so far focused on narrow self-serving 
objectives and some personal vendettas against ministers. End 
summary. 
 
Strong Reaction to Rumors of Possible Dissolution 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶2.  (C/NF) Local press have been buzzing over the past couple 
of weeks about rumors the Amir might dissolve Parliament 
again.  While the Amir is constitutionally required to call 
new elections within two months of a dissolution, some 
observers speculate he could delay elections for up to three 
years.  (Note: Parliament has been dissolved 
unconstitutionally twice before, the last time in 1986.  End 
note.)  A front-page article in the November 5 Arab Times 
(local English daily) reported that the Government was 
currently studying the possibility of "suspending 
(Parliament) for three years and amending Article 4 of the 
Constitution," which deals with succession.  The article 
quoted "a highly placed source" as saying "the political 
atmosphere in the country has become unbearable and the 
continuous threats of MPs to 'grill' ministers are preventing 
the Government from doing its duty and implementing 
development projects."  The source continued: "MPs should 
know Kuwait is passing through a dangerous phase and 
decision-makers won't hesitate to take tough decisions." 
Separate reports have cited leading opposition MP Ahmed 
Saadoun's repeated threats to "grill" the Prime Minister as a 
"red line" the Government will not tolerate crossing.  In 
conversations with visitors lately, the Amir has joked about 
the difficulty of dealing with parliament but has not hinted 
at dissolution, although he has noted the need for the U.S. 
to recognize that it cannot impose democracy on Middle 
Eastern countries.  The Prime Minister has evinced no 
particular concern about the difficulties with the 
Parliament, noting to the Ambassador that he has long-time 
ties to some of the leading oppositionists and knows how to 
deal with them. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Many Kuwaitis have come out strongly against such a 
move, arguing that an unconstitutional dissolution would only 
exacerbate existing political tensions.  One editorial warned 
that an unconstitutional dissolution would "plunge the 
country into the vortex of the unknown."  It went on to say 
that "the crucial issue before the Government now is battling 
corruption and personal aggrandizement....An unconstitutional 
dissolution will increase corruption and the pillaging of 
public funds will grow worse."  The Kuwait Journalists' 
Syndicate issued a statement November 8, stressing that an 
unconstitutional dissolution would trigger "sedition" and 
"destabilize Kuwait."  Other columnists called on MPs to 
moderate their criticism of the Government and give Ministers 
more time to address their concerns.  A few have argued in 
favor of an unconstitutional dissolution as the only way to 
resolve political deadlock and move forward on key 
 
KUWAIT 00004430  002 OF 003 
 
 
development projects. 
 
A Warning to Parliament? 
------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (C/NF) According to several contacts, the Amir openly 
discussed an unconstitutional dissolution of Parliament in 
recent meetings with the Kuwait Chamber of Commerce, the 
Higher Council for the Application of Islamic Shari'a 
(HCAIS), and Speaker of Parliament Jassem Al-Khorafi.  Ahmed 
Deyain, the former Secretary General of the Kuwait Democratic 
Forum, told Poloff November 4 that the Amir had also talked 
about the possibility of creating a second chamber of 
Parliament and revoking recently-passed electoral reform 
legislation (ref D).  Deyain said he "(did) not rule out the 
possibility of an unconstitutional dissolution," but that 
such a move was unlikely.  He claimed the leadership lacked 
the "political will" to dissolve Parliament 
unconstitutionally, particularly given regional tensions.  An 
unconstitutional dissolution could inflame tensions rather 
than resolve them, he explained.  Deyain suggested the Amir 
might have "floated" the possibility as a warning to 
Parliament to be more cooperative and tone down their 
criticism of the Government.  Deyain claimed the Amir's son, 
Shaykh Nasser Sabah Al-Ahmed, told him the Amir had wanted to 
"frighten" MPs. 
 
¶5.  (C/NF) Deyain blamed the Government for the current 
tensions with Parliament.  He said the Government is "weak 
and does not take initiative, and argued that the "easiest 
and most reasonable solution" was to replace the current 
Cabinet with one "capable of reconciling with the political 
blocs in Parliament."  Deyain claimed "80 percent of MPs" 
want to work with the Government and have nothing to gain 
from a dissolution, but pressure the Government because of 
its "ineptness and poor leadership."  "If Government change 
is introduced, things will change," he predicted.  If 
Parliament is dissolved unconstitutionally, Kuwait's 
political groups "have enough experience to rally around each 
other and demand the re-instatement of the Parliament," 
Deyain said.  He suggested they could also demand "a more 
democratic constitution." 
 
Parliamentarians Disagree on Probability of Dissolution 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶6.  (C/NF) In a November 8 meeting, Ahmed Baqer, the 
Coordinator of the 17-member Islamic Bloc and a former 
Minister of Justice, downplayed the likelihood of an 
unconstitutional dissolution, which he said would have "very 
negative ramifications."  He blamed the current political 
tensions on the Government's weakness and poorly chosen 
ministers, who did not have "connections" to the political 
blocs in Parliament.  Baqer predicted the Cabinet would be 
reshuffled and, if that failed to resolve tensions, the 
entire Cabinet would be replaced before the Amir resorted to 
dissolving Parliament.  Even then, Baqer believed it would be 
a constitutional dissolution.  He claimed the Kuwaiti people 
and political groups would react "strongly" to an 
unconstitutional dissolution, "even more than in 1986," and 
predicted they would "take to the streets," which could lead 
to "clashes." 
 
¶7.  (C/NF) Liberal MP Mishari Al-Anjari, the Coordinator of 
the 8-member National Action Bloc, told Poloff in a separate 
meeting November 8 he believed an unconstitutional 
dissolution was "likely."  "The Government cannot confront 
the current Parliament nor those responsible for corruption," 
he explained.  Al-Anjari added that some MPs had also made 
"mistakes" by pressuring the Government to forgive loans and 
offer more benefits to Kuwaitis.  Al-Anjari claimed the Amir 
had told the Chamber of Commerce, the HCAIS, and the Speaker 
that he wanted to "see Kuwaiti society stable and secure, but 
due to the current uncooperative political climate, (he) may 
have no other option than to dissolve Parliament."  According 
to Al-Anjari, the Amir said, "If I am forced to do this, I 
will do it unconstitutionally." 
 
¶8.  (C/NF) Al-Anjari predicted an unconstitutional 
dissolution would be a "jump in the dark" and could lead to 
"conflicts."  He said the Government would be forced to use 
state money to "appease the street," contributing to further 
corruption.  Like Baqer, Al-Anjari criticized the weakness of 
the Government and the composition of the Cabinet.  The 
current ministers "do not have contacts with the (political) 
blocs" in Parliament, he complained.  "The choice of good 
ministers would ease tensions between Parliament and the 
Government," Al-Anjari said.  He concluded by predicting that 
 
KUWAIT 00004430  003 OF 003 
 
 
"either the Government or Parliament will be short-lived." 
 
********************************************* * 
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s 
 
Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ 
********************************************* * 
LeBaron