VZCZCXRO3004
PP RUEHDIR
DE RUEHDIR #0015 33417
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 301809Z NOV 06
FM IRAN RPO DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHDIR/IRAN RPO DUBAI
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI
RUEHAD/AMEMBASSY ABU DHABI
RUEHAD/USDAO ABU DHABI TC

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000015 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA/IR; LONDON FOR GAYLE; PARIS FOR WALLER; BERLIN FOR PAETZOLD; BAKU FOR HAUGEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/30/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PTER ECON EPAT MCAP IR
SUBJECT: IRGC:  AN ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL POWERHOUSE (C-NE6-00566) 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000015  001.6 OF 004 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: JILLIAN BURNS, DIRECTOR, IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE 
OFFICE - DUBAI, DEPARTMENT OF STATE. 
REASON: 1.4 (D) 
 
1.(S) SUMMARY.  EXPERTS AND OBSERVERS AGREE THAT WITH THE 
ELECTION OF FORMER IRGC OFFICER MAHMOUD AHMADINEJAD TO THE 
PRESIDENCY IN 2005, THE POLITICAL INFLUENCE OF THE ISLAMIC 
REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS (IRGC) IS ON THE UPSURGE.  IT HAS ALSO 
AMASSED ECONOMIC POWER, PARTICULARLY SINCE AHMADINEJADS 
ELECTION.  UNLEASHED AFTER YEARS OF CURBS ON ITS OVERT ECONOMIC 
ACTIVITIES UNDER PRESIDENT KHATAMI, IT BEGAN WINNING LARGER 
CONTRACTS, WHILE CIRCUMVENTING GOVERNMENT TENDERING PROCEDURES. 
THE KHATAM AL-ANBIYA RECONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION (A COMMERCIAL 
ORGANIZATION CONTROLLED BY THE IRGC AND HEADED BY IRGC GENERAL 
ABDOLREZA ABED) IS REPORTEDLY THE LARGEST BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC 
TRUST IN THE COUNTRY.  IT RECENTLY SIGNED A DEAL WORTH $7 
BILLION WITH IRAN'S MINISTRY OF OIL.  ACCORDING TO GENERAL ABED, 
30 PERCENT OF IRGC FORCES ARE CURRENTLY DEVOTED TO SUPPORTING 
ECONOMIC AND CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS.  THE VAST SUMS OF MONEY 
GAINED FROM SUCH PROJECTS REPORTEDLY NOT ONLY LINE THE POCKETS 
OF PAST AND PRESENT IRGC MEMBERS, BUT STREAMLINE THE ACQUISITION 
OF WEAPONS SYSTEMS AND POSSIBLY FUND OF TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS. 
 NONETHELESS, A PROMINENT IRANIAN ECONOMIC ANALYST INFERRED THAT 
BONYADS WERE A MORE LIKELY SOURCE OF TERRORIST FUNDING, DRAWING 
ON MASSIVE RELIGIOUS TAXES.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ASSUMING GREATER POLITICAL POWER 
---------------------------------------- 
 
2.(S) IN JUNE 2004, THE ECONOMIST REPORTED THAT THE ISLAMIC 
REVOLUTIONARY GUARD CORPS (IRGC) OR "SEPAH-YE PASDARAN-E 
ENQELAB-E ISLAMI"  MAY BE "QUIETLY TAKING CONTROL," WITH THE 
CONSERVATIVES' BLESSING IN THE FACE OF WANING CLERICAL PRESTIGE. 
 THE ECONOMIST NOTED THAT THE IRGC SUCCESSFULLY HELPED 
AHMADINEJAD BECOME MAYOR OF TEHRAN IN 2003 AND SOME 90 FORMER 
IRGC MEMBERS GET ELECTED INTO THE 2004 7TH PARLIAMENT OUT OF A 
TOTAL OF 290 MEMBERS.  OTHER INDICATIONS OF IRGC INFLUENCE 
RECEIVED INTERNATIONAL MEDIA ATTENTION AS WELL.  THE TIMES 2004 
ARTICLE ASSERTED THAT THE IRGC HELD THE KEY TO THE NUCLEAR 
DISPUTE AS IT CONTROLS THE IRIG'S STRATEGIC TECHNOLOGIES, 
INCLUDING THE SHAHAB MISSILE PROGRAM AND VITAL PARTS OF THE 
NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGY EFFORT. THE ARTICLE ALSO NOTED THAT THE IRGC 
GREATLY INFLUENCED THE LAW ENFORCEMENT FORCES (LEF) AND NOTED 
CONTROL OF T NATIONAL TV AND RADIO BY FORMER IRGC MEMBER ALI 
LARIJANI.  THE TIMES ARTICLE CLAIMED THAT THE IRGC DOMINATED THE 
MINISTRIES OF DEFENSE AND INTELLIGENCE AS WELL. (COMMENT: THIS 
MAY HAVE BEEN THE CASE WELL INTO THE LATE NINETIES UNTIL FORMER 
PRESIDENT KHATAMI'S REFORMISTS WERE ABLE TO WREST CONTROL OF THE 
MINISTRY OF INTELLIGENCE AWAY FROM THE HARDLINERS.  END 
COMMENT.)  SINCE HIS ELECTION, AHMADINEJAD HAS BROUGHT BACK MANY 
OF THE SAME IRGC VETS THAT KHATAMI WORKED SO HARD AT GETTING RID 
OF FROM THE MINISTRY OF INFORMATION, AS WELL AS NAMING NUMEROUS 
OTHER RETIRED IRGC MEMBERS TO GOVERNMENT OFFICE. 
 
GAINING ECONOMIC CLOUT 
---------------------- 
 
3.(S)  THE IRGC HAS BEEN AMASSING ECONOMIC POWER SINCE THE 
CONCLUSION OF THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR.  THIS TREND GREATLY ACCELERATED 
DURING THE 1990S, WHEN THE IRGC PROFITED FROM BRIBES FROM THE 
LUCRATIVE IRAQI OIL SMUGGLING TRADE DURING THE OIL-FOR-FOOD 
PERIOD.  ACCORDING TO NUMEROUS CONTACTS, THE IRGC COMMAND GREW 
TO RESENT THE LUXURIOUS LIFESTYLES AND ENDEMIC CORRUPTION OF THE 
POST-REVOLUTIONARY CLERICAL CLASS DURING THESE YEARS, AS 
EMBODIED BY FORMER PRESIDENT HASHEMI RAFSANJANI.  THE IRGC 
REPORTEDLY FELT THEIR SACRIFICES WERE BEING SQUANDERED BY OTHERS 
AND MOVED TO CAPTURE A GREATER SLICE OF IRAN'S WEALTH AND POWER. 
 
 
4.(U) THE FIRST MAJOR PUBLIC INDICATION OF IRGC ASSERTIVENESS IN 
THE COUNTRY'S ECONOMY CAME WHEN IT SUCCESSFULLY CLOSED DOWN THE 
NEWLY-BUILT IMAM KHOMEINI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN MAY 2004, 
AFTER CITING "SECURITY CONCERNS" WITH THE FOREIGN OPERATOR, 
TURKISH FIRM TAV.  THE REAL REASON WAS SUPPOSEDLY RELATED 
INSTEAD TO CONTRACT ISSUES.  THE 2004 ECONOMIST ARTICLE 
MENTIONED FAILED ATTEMPTS BY THE PREVIOUS REFORMIST PARLIAMENT 
TO INVESTIGATE ALLEGED MISUSE OF IRGC JETTIES TO SMUGGLE IN 
EMBARGOED GOODS.  IN THE ARTICLE, TRADE ANALYST KHOSRO 
NASIRZADEH ESTIMATED THAT SOME 72 JETTIES WERE OPERATING 
ILLEGALLY, BRINGING IN $9.5 BILLION ANNUALLY.  THE NEW YORK 
TIMES ARTICLE, WRITTEN BY VALI NASR AND ALI GHEISSARI, CLAIMED 
THAT THE IRGC HAD A MONOPOLY OVER BLACK MARKET TRADE IN 
EMBARGOED GOODS, INCLUDING CONSUMER ELECTRONICS, WESTERN 
CLOTHING, AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS.  PARIS INTELLIGENCE ONLINE 
CLAIMED JULY 7, 2006 THAT THE IRGC IS GIVEN AN ANNUAL QUOTA OF 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000015  002.3 OF 004 
 
 
OIL PRODUCTS TO SMUGGLE INTO NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES (IRAQ, 
TURKEY, PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN), NETTING ANOTHER $1 BILLION 
PER YEAR.  NASR AND GHEISSARI ASSERTED THAT THE BILLIONS OF 
DOLLARS REVENUE REMOVED BUDGETARY CONSTRAINTS OVER ITS SPENDING 
ON WEAPONS AND AID TO FOREIGN TERRORIST GROUPS. 
 
 KHATAM AL ANBIYA RECONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION - IRGC'S MAIN 
ECONOMIC ENTITY 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
---------------- 
 
5.(U) ON JUNE 26, 2006 SHARQ (NOTE: REFORMIST IRANIAN PAPER 
CLOSED IN OCTOBER 2006.  ENDNOTE) INTERVIEWED IRGC BRIGADIER 
GENERAL ABDOLREZA ABED,  THE ACTING COMMANDER OF THE IRGC'S 
KHATAM AL ANBIYA RECONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION.  THIS ENTITY WAS 
ESTABLISHED AFTER THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR TO ADVANCE RECONSTRUCTION OF 
THE COUNTRY AND ECONOMIC EFFORTS.  ABED, AS QUOTED BY SHARQ, 
CITED ARTICLE 47 OF THE CONSTITUTION STIPULATING THAT THE 
GOVERNMENT IS REQUIRED TO EMPLOY ARMED FORCES IN RECONSTRUCTION 
AND CONSTRUCTION EFFORTS DURING TIMES OF PEACE.  HE CLAIMED THAT 
30 PERCENT OF IRGC FORCES ARE CURRENTLY EMPLOYED IN ECONOMIC 
ACTIVITIES.  HE FURTHER ASSERTED THAT EVEN IN THE CASE OF WAR, 
THE IRGC'S ECONOMIC ARM COULD CONTINUE TO MEET ITS DEADLINES AND 
ENGAGE IN CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITIES THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY. 
 
6.(S) ABED STATED THAT SINCE ITS INCEPTION IN 1989, THE KHATAM 
AL ANBIYA RECONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION HAS COMPLETED 1,220 SMALL 
PUBLIC WORKS PROJECTS WORTH A TOTAL OF $2.7 TO $3.2 MILLION.  AT 
THE TIME OF THE JUNE 2006 INTERVIEW, HE SAID THE IRGC WAS 
INVOLVED IN 247 PROJECTS WORTH AROUND $2 BILLION AND WAS ABOUT 
TO SIGN SEVERAL LUCRATIVE DEALS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR.  WHEN 
ASKED WHY THE IRGC WAS STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM MORE 
TRADITIONAL CONSTRUCTION AND INDUSTRIAL PROJECTS - AND MOVE 
TOWARD THE ENERGY SECTOR - ABED SAID, "OUR STRATEGY IS TO SERVE. 
 WE MUST STEP IN WHEREVER THERE IS A MONOPOLY."  HOWEVER, AN 
IRANIAN ECONOMIC ANALYST TOLD ECONOFF THAT INSTEAD, PRESIDENT 
KHATAMI HAD THWARTED IRGC ATTEMPTS TO ENTER THE OIL AND GAS 
SECTOR, A PROHIBITION THEN LIFTED BY HIS SUCCESSOR.  AND RATHER 
THAN PROMOTING COMPETITION, THE CONTACT SAID, THE IRGC IS ABLE 
TO UNDERBID COMPETITORS BECAUSE OF THE COMPARATIVELY LOWER WAGES 
IT PAYS ITS SOLDIER-EMPLOYEES.  THE ANALYST ALSO NOTED THAT THE 
BEST AND THE BRIGHTEST OF DRAFTEES ARE OFTEN FUNNELED INTO 
IRGC'S ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES.  AN IRANIAN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR 
CONTACT EXPRESSED THE BUSINESS COMMUNITIES GROWING FRUSTRATION 
TO IRPOFF WITH THE IRGC'S INSIDER ACCESS TO LUCRATIVE GOVERNMENT 
CONTRACTS IN MANY FIELDS AND ACCUSED THE IRGC OF UNFAVORABLE 
PERFORMANCE ON LARGE CONTRACTS.  IN A CLAIM THAT CANNOT BE 
VERIFIED, ANOTHER IRANIAN BUSINESSMAN MAINTAINED THAT THE IRGC 
SKIMS 10 PERCENT OFF OF ALL FOREIGN CONTRACTS. 
 
7.(U) A JULY 4, 2006 ROOZ ONLINE ARTICLE CALLED THE KHATAM AL 
ANBIYA RECONSTRUCTION ORGANIZATION  THE LARGEST BUSINESS AND 
ECONOMIC TRUST IN IRAN.  AS REPORTED BY ROOZ, IT SIGNED A $7 
BILLION AGREEMENT WITH THE MINISTRY OF OIL, AND IT PURCHASED 
SHARES OF ORIENTAL OIL KISH (ONE OF IRAN'S LARGEST PRIVATE OIL 
COMPANIES).  PARIS INTELLIGENCE ONLINE REPORTED JULY 7, 2006 
THAT THE IRGC SIGNED THREE ADDITIONAL CONTRACTS:  $2.09 BILLION 
TO DEVELOP THE 15TH AND 16TH PHASES OF SOUTH PARS GAS FIELD, $2 
BILLION TO BUILD A SUBWAY IN TEHRAN, AND $1.3 BILLION TO 
CONSTRUCT A 900 KM PIPELINE BETWEEN PARS JONUBI AND THE CITY OF 
IRANSHAHR. 
 
8.(U) ACCORDING TO THE JUNE SHARQ INTERVIEW, THE PIPELINE 
PROJECT WAS AWARDED VIA A NO-BID CONTRACT.  WHEN SHARQ 
QUESTIONED GENERAL ABED AS TO WHY THE DEAL DID NOT GO TO TENDER, 
ABED REPLIED "THEY HAVE SEEN OUR WORK.  WE MUST HAVE DONE 
SOMETHING FOR THEM TO BE WILLING TO AWARD US THE CONTRACT 
WITHOUT BIDDING."  VARIOUS NEWS SOURCES ALSO REPORTED THAT THE 
SOUTH PARS PROJECT AND SUBWAY CONSTRUCTION WERE HANDED OVER TO 
THE IRGC WITHOUT A TENDERING PROCESS - A MOVE THAT EVEN ANGERED 
THE REGULAR ARMY.  REACTING TO THESE NO-TENDER CONTRACTS, ARMY 
COMMANDER-IN-CHIEF SALEHI REPORTEDLY COMPLAINED THAT WHILE THE 
IRGC HAS "ECONOMIC PRIVILEGES," THE REGULAR ARMY IS FACING 
DWINDLING BUDGETS AND OBSOLETE ARMAMENTS, ACCORDING TO THE JULY 
7 PARIS INTELLIGENCE ONLINE ARTICLE. 
 
OTHER OPPORTUNITIES 
----------------------- 
 
9.(S) IRANIAN BUSINESS CONTACTS REPORT THAT AHMADINEJAD'S 
PROGRAM OF TRANSFERRING GREATER POWER TO PROVINCIAL GOVERNMENTS 
IS ANOTHER VEHICLE FOR EXPANDING IRGC ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL 
POWER.  (NOTE.  DESPITE STRONG CRITICISM, AHMADINEJAD RECENTLY 
TRANSFERRED CONTROL OF THE PREVIOUSLY CENTRALIZED MANAGEMENT AND 
PLANNING ORGANIZATION BUDGET TO  THE PROVINCES.  ENDNOTE.)  FOR 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000015  003.3 OF 004 
 
 
EXAMPLE, THE GOVERNOR OF ISFAHAN PROVINCE WAS REPORTEDLY ORDERED 
RECENTLY TO IMMEDIATELY DIVERT CONSIDERABLE PUBLIC FUNDS TO 
"DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS," ACCORDING TO A SOURCE WHO HAD RECENTLY 
VISITED IRAN.  CLAIMING AS HIS CONTACT A HIGH LEVEL OFFICIAL IN 
THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE, HE SAID THE GOVERNOR WAS ANGRY AT BEING 
ORDERED TO PRODUCE MONEY OUT OF HIS OWN COFFERS FOR THESE 
PROJECTS, WHICH WERE BEING IMPLEMENTED  WITHOUT PROPER PLANNING. 
 THE IRGC WAS REPORTEDLY SET TO RECEIVE SOME OF THESE PROJECT 
CONTRACTS. 
 
10.(U) ROOZ ONLINE CLAIMED ON JULY 11, 2006 THAT IRGC COMMANDERS 
REQUESTED THAT COMPANIES UP FOR PRIVATIZATION UNDER THE NEW 
PRIVATIZATION LAW BE DIRECTED TOWARDS IRGC MEMBERS AND THEIR 
RELATIVES.  SOME OF THE COMPANIES CITED AS TARGETS INCLUDE: 
MOBARAKE STEEL PLANT IN ISFAHAN, IRAN KHODRO CAR MANUFACTURING 
PLANT, SAIPA CAR MANUFACTURING, KHUZESTAN STEEL CORP, TEJARAT 
BANK, MELLAT BANK, SADERAT BANK, REFAH BANK, ALL SHIPPING 
COMPANIES, HOMA AIRLINES, ASSEMAN AIRLINES, ASIA INSURANCE 
COMPANY, DANA INSURANCE COMPANY AND ALBORZ INSURANCE COMPANY. 
FURTHERMORE, ROOZ ALLEGED THAT THE MINISTRY OF POWER 
"UNLAWFULLY" GRANTED ALL ITS POWER AND WATER DEVELOPMENT 
PROJECTS TO THE IRGC WITHOUT FOLLOWING WRITTEN PROCEDURES FOR 
SUCH TRANSFERS.  (NOTE: ROOZ CLAIMS THAT AHMADINEJAD'S MINISTER 
OF POWER IS A FORMER IRGC MEMBER AND CONTRACTOR FOR THE KARKHEH 
DAM.  HE HAS ALSO SERVED AS THE MANAGING DIRECTOR OF AN 
ELECTRICITY DEVELOPING COMPANY AND AS CHAIRMAN OF IRGC OWNED 
MALEK-E ASHTAR UNIVERSITY.  ENDNOTE) 
 
USE OR LOSE 
------------- 
 
11.(U) IN THE JUNE INTERVIEW WITH SHARQ, GENERAL ABED ADMITTED 
THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE $2 BILLION FUNDING FOR THE SOUTH PARS 
PROJECT WOULD COME FROM THE FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVE ACCOUNT. 
THE FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVE WAS ORIGINALLY ESTABLISHED WITH THE 
UNDERSTANDING THAT 50 PERCENT WOULD REMAIN AS RESERVES AND 50 
PERCENT WOULD BE LOANED TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR.  THE SHARQ 
REPORTER QUESTIONED HOW THE IRGC OBTAINED FUNDS EARMARKED FOR 
PRIVATE INVESTORS.  ABED REPLIED SIMPLY, "THE FUNDS EXIST TODAY, 
THEY MIGHT NOT TOMORROW."  ECONOMIST BAHMAN ARMAN WARNED IN AN 
AFTABNEWS ARTICLE NOVEMBER 21, 2006 THAT IRAN'S CURRENT 
INFLATION WOES ARE A DIRECT RESULT OF GOVERNMENT WITHDRAWALS 
FROM THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVE FUND TO MEET THE COSTS OF ITS 
CURRENT EXPENDITURES. 
 
12.(U) IN AUGUST 2006,  THE IRGC PLAYED A ROLE IN A HOSTILE 
SEIZURE OF A ROMANIAN OIL RIG WORKING OFF THE COAST OF IRAN. 
THE RIG WAS OWNED BY A ROMANIAN, SUPPOSEDLY RENTED BY A FORMER 
IRGC MEMBER AND DUBAI-BASED BUSINESS OWNER OF ORIENTAL OIL 
COMPANY, LEASED TO THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT, WITH THE DEAL 
FINANCED BY BANK SADERAT AND CREDIT SUISSE.  WHEN THE ROMANIAN 
OWNER ATTEMPTED TO RECLAIM HIS RIG AFTER A DEFAULT ON THE 
PAYMENT,  IRANIAN MILITARY VESSELS, ALLEGEDLY CONTAINING IRGC 
MEMBERS, PULLED ALONGSIDE IT, JUMPED ON, AND TOOK CONTROL.  NOW 
TANGLED IN LEGAL BATTLES, IT IS UNCLEAR WHAT THE FATE OF THE RIG 
WILL BE.  AN OCTOBER 14, 2006 WALL STREET JOURNAL ON IRGC 
INVOLVEMENT IN THE IRANIAN ECONOMY CONCLUDED THAT A "FEARED 
FORCE ROILS BUSINESS IN IRAN."  IT CLAIMED THAT THE BANK DEFAULT 
MAY HAVE BEEN CONNECTED TO USG EFFORTS TO  PRESS INTERNATIONAL 
BANKS TO STOP DOING BUSINESS WITH SADERAT. 
 
13.(S) COMMENT.  OUR OVERALL LACK OF ACCESS TO PEOPLE WITH 
DIRECT KNOWLEDGE OF IRGC ECONOMIC ACTIVITY MEANS IT IS DIFFICULT 
TO FIND RELIABLE INFORMATION, SUCH AS WHAT PERCENTAGE OF IRGC 
PROFITS GOES INTO INDIVIDUAL POCKETS, WHAT PERCENTAGE IS SPENT 
SUPPORTING WEAPONS ACQUISITIONS, AND WHAT PERCENTAGE GOES TOWARD 
SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM.  A LONG-TIME CONTACT, AN ECONOMIC 
ANALYST, INFERRED THE DEEP, MURKY POCKETS OF BONYADS ARE A MORE 
LIKELY SOURCE OF FUNDING FOR TERRORISM THAN THE IRGC.  HE SAID 
THE KHATAM AL-ANBIYA BEARS SOME SIMILARITY TO THE US ARMY CORP 
OF ENGINEERS.  HE MAINTAINED THAT IT WAS A NATURAL EXTENSION IN 
PEACETIME TO USE THE TECHNICAL EXPERTISE ACCRUED DURING WARTIME 
FOR THE COUNTRY'S RECONSTRUCTION.  FURTHERMORE, DESPITE ITS IRGC 
TIES, IT IS A COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATION AND THEREFORE IS AUDITED. 
SOME OF ITS INCOME IS REINVESTED, SOME OF IT LINES POCKETS, AND 
A SMALL PORTION MAY BE USED FOR NEFARIOUS PURPOSES.  THE 
ECONOMIST IMPLIED, HOWEVER, THAT THE RELIGIOUS TAX REVENUES 
GOING TO BONYADS IS "MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN MOST PEOPLE 
REALIZE." 
 
14.(S) COMMENT CON'T: A FEW OF OUR CONTACTS HAVE REFERRED TO THE 
IRGCS GROWING POWER OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS, WHICH THEY VIEW AS 
INSTRUMENTAL IN DELIVERING THE PRESIDENTIAL VICTORY TO 
AHMADINEJAD, AS A "CREEPING MILITARY COUP," AIMED AT TAKING 
POWER OUT OF THE HANDS OF THE CLERICS.  THE SPECIFIC IMPACT OF 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000015  004.3 OF 004 
 
 
THIS POWER SHIFT ON US INTERESTS REMAINS UNCLEAR.  WE WOULD NOTE 
THAT THE WORLDVIEW OF TODAYS SENIOR IRGC OFFICIALS WAS FORGED 
IN THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR, WHICH ENGENDERED STRONG RESENTMENT TOWARDS 
THE US AND THE ARAB WORLD FOR THE ASSISTANCE GIVEN IRAQIS 
AGAINST THEM.  FURTHERMORE, ONE CONTACT MAINTAINED THAT 
AHMADINEJAD AND THE SUPREME LEADER DRAW THEIR POWER FROM THE 
500,000 WAR VETERANS AND THEIR FAMILIES AND THEREFORE GEAR THEIR 
POLICIES TO SATISFY THEM. 
BURNS