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S E C R E T SVC SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000011

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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 IRAN RPO DUBAI 000011 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/6/2016 
TAGS: IR PGOV
SUBJECT: ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS ELECTION -- HARBINGER OF FUTURE 
CHANGES? 
 
REF: A. DUBAI 1217, B. RPO DUBAI 0008 
 
RPO DUBAI 00000011  001.3 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: JILLIAN BURNS, DIRECTOR, IRAN REGIONAL PRESENCE 
OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF STATE. 
REASON: 1.4 (D) 
 
1.(C) SUMMARY:  ELECTIONS WILL BE HELD ON DECEMBER 15 FOR THE 
ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS, THE 86-MEMBER CLERICAL BODY THAT ELECTS AND 
NOMINALLY SUPERVISES THE SUPREME LEADER.  SEVERAL IRPO CONTACTS 
HAVE PREDICTED LOW VOTER TURNOUT, NOTING THAT THE ELECTION WILL 
BRING NO IMMEDIATE CHANGES, AND CITIZENS HAVE LITTLE INCENTIVE 
TO VOTE.  OTHERS SAY THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS ELECTION HAS THE 
POTENTIAL OF IMPACTING FUTURE POWER ALIGNMENTS IN THE IRANIAN 
REGIME. THEY NOTE THAT THE ELECTIONS WILL REFLECT THE RESULTS OF 
A POWER STRUGGLE BETWEEN AYATOLLAH MESBAH-YAZDI, THE 
ARCH-CONSERVATIVE SPIRITUAL ADVISOR OF AHMADINEJAD, AND 
EXPEDIENCY COUNCIL CHAIRMAN ALI AKBAR RAFSANJANI, WHO IS ALSO 
CURRENTLY THE DEPUTY SPEAKER OF THE ASSEMBLY.  ELECTION COVERAGE 
IN THE IRANIAN PRESS LARGELY CENTERS ON CANDIDATE LISTS, AND THE 
ATTEMPTED USE, IN AT LEAST ONE CASE, OF THE RELIGIOUS 
QUALIFICATION EXAM TO BAR A REFORMIST CANDIDACY.  ONE CHALLENGE 
FOR THE US WILL BE HOW TO FRAME OUR PUBLIC STATEMENTS ABOUT THE 
ELECTION OF THIS CONTROVERSIAL BODY. END SUMMARY. 
 
2.(U) ON DECEMBER 15, ELECTIONS FOR THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS -- 
THE CLERICAL BODY THAT ELECTS AND NOMINALLY SUPERVISES THE 
SUPREME LEADER -- WILL BE HELD.  (NOTE: WHILE THE ASSEMBLY OF 
EXPERTS IS CONSTITUTIONALLY AUTHORIZED TO ELECT, SUPERVISE AND 
EVEN REPLACE THE SUPREME LEADERS, THE SUPREME LEADERS POWER AND 
INFLUENCE GREATLY CONSTRAINS THE SUPERVISORY ROLE.)  THE 
ASSEMBLY IS AN 86-MEMBER BODY ELECTED ONCE EVERY EIGHT YEARS IN 
NATIONWIDE POLLS.  IT MEETS TWICE A YEAR IN CLOSED SESSIONS. 
492 CANDIDATES REGISTERED FOR THE ELECTIONS, INCLUDING 13 WOMEN. 
 (NOTE: INITIAL PRESS REPORTS INDICATED THAT 495 CANDIDATES 
REGISTERED, BUT THREE REPORTEDLY REGISTERED TWICE, MAKING THE 
ACTUAL NUMBER OF CANDIDATES 492. ENDNOTE.).  CANDIDATES MUST 
PASS GUARDIAN COUNCIL VETTING, AND EACH MUST BE A QUALIFIED 
MUJTAHED, SOMEONE WITH THE RELIGIOUS QUALIFICATIONS TO INTERPRET 
ISLAMIC LAW AND ISSUE RELIGIOUS DECREES. 
 
3.(U) ACCORDING TO IRANIAN PRESS REPORTS, 204 CANDIDATES WERE 
REQUIRED TO TAKE A RELIGIOUS QUALIFICATIONS EXAM, OF WHICH 37 
REFUSED, INCLUDING FOUR SITTING MEMBERS OF THE ASSEMBLY. 
REFORMIST CLERIC AND SENIOR MEMBER OF THE MILITANT CLERICS 
SOCIETY MAJID ANSARI WAS ONE OF THE FOUR SITTING MEMBERS WHO 
REFUSED TO TAKE THE EXAM, AND HIS CASE RECEIVED PARTICULAR PRESS 
ATTENTION BECAUSE OF CLAIMS THAT THE GUARDIAN COUNCIL WAS USING 
THE RELIGIOUS QUALIFICATION REQUIREMENT TO BAR REFORMISTS FROM 
COMPETING.  ONE PRESS REPORT LATER CITED AN "INFORMED SOURCE" AS 
SAYING THAT ANSARI WOULD BE EXEMPTED FROM HAVING TO TAKE THE 
EXAM, SINCE HE HAD PREVIOUSLY PASSED IT.  GUARDIAN COUNCIL 
VETTING WILL TAKE PLACE FROM OCTOBER 15 TO NOVEMBER 15. 
CANDIDATES WHO PASS THE VETTING PROCESS WILL THEN HAVE FROM 
NOVEMBER 30 TO DECEMBER 15 TO CAMPAIGN. 
 
WILL WOMEN CANDIDATES BE ALLOWED? 
--------------------------------- 
 
4.(U) NO WOMEN CURRENTLY SIT ON THE ASSEMBLY, AND WOMEN WHO 
ATTEMPTED TO RUN IN THE LAST ASSEMBLY ELECTION WERE BARRED FROM 
COMPETING.  IN RECENT MONTHS, THERE HAS BEEN DEBATE INSIDE THE 
COUNTRY ABOUT WHETHER WOMEN WILL BE PERMITTED TO COMPETE THIS 
YEAR.  SEVERAL RELIGIOUS LEADERS, INCLUDING HARD-LINE CLERIC AND 
CANDIDATE AYATOLLAH MOHAMMED TAQI MESBAH-YAZDI, GAVE QUALIFIED 
SUPPORT FOR THE IDEA OF WOMEN'S CANDIDACIES, SAYING THAT WOMEN 
WHO HAD ATTAINED THE REQUISITE LEVEL OF RELIGIOUS LEARNING (I.E. 
QUALIFIED MUJTAHEDS) SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO COMPETE.  SUCH A 
STATEMENT ALLOWS FOR THE APPEARANCE OF OPENNESS, BUT IN REALITY 
THERE ARE FEW FEMALE MUJTAHEDS.  ACCORDING TO DOMESTIC PRESS, 
TWO WOMEN CANDIDATES TOOK THE RELIGIOUS QUALIFICATIONS EXAM. 
 
POWER STRUGGLE FOR ASSEMBLY AND POSSIBLY SUPREME LEADERSHIP 
--------------------------------------------- -------------- 
 
5.(S) THERE IS REPORTEDLY A POWER STRUGGLE BREWING FOR THE 
FUTURE LEADERSHIP OF THE ASSEMBLY BETWEEN HARD-LINE CLERIC 
AYATOLLAH MESBAH-YAZDI AND EXPEDIENCY COUNCIL CHAIRMAN ALI AKBAR 
RAFSANJANI.  MESBAH-YAZDI, WHO IS THE SPIRITUAL ADVISOR OF 
PRESIDENT AHMADINEJAD, REGISTERED FOR THE ELECTION FOLLOWING 
MONTHS OF SPECULATION THAT HE WOULD ATTEMPT TO GAIN CONTROL OF 
THE BODY.  HE IS SUPPORTED LARGELY BY HARD-LINERS AND THOSE 
AFFILIATED WITH AHMADINEJAD.  RAFSANJANI, WHO IS ALSO CURRENTLY 
THE DEPUTY SPEAKER OF THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS, SIGNED UP FOR THE 
ELECTION ON THE LAST DAY OF REGISTRATION.  RAFSANJANI IS MOSTLY 
SUPPORTED BY TRADITIONAL AND MODERATE CONSERVATIVES, AS WELL AS 
SOME REFORMISTS, WHO ARE IN THE MINORITY AMONG THE CANDIDATES 
FOR THE ASSEMBLY.  NASSER HADIAN, AN IRANIAN POLITICAL ANALYST, 
PREDICTED THAT IF THE POLITICAL MAKE-UP OF THE ASSEMBLY REMAINS 
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RPO DUBAI 00000011  002.3 OF 002 
 
 
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME, RAFSANJANI WOULD LIKELY BECOME SUPREME 
LEADER WERE KHAMENEI TO BECOME INCAPABLE OF CARRYING OUT THE 
OFFICE.  IF MESBAH-YAZDI AND HIS SUPPORTERS WERE TO GAIN A 
MAJORITY IN THE ASSEMBLY, THE HARD-LINE CLERIC MAY THEN POSITION 
HIMSELF TO SUCCEED KHAMENEI AS SUPREME LEADER. 
 
6.(C) THE CURRENT SPEAKER OF THE ASSEMBLY, AYATOLLAH ALI 
MESHKINI, REGISTERED FOR THE DECEMBER ELECTIONS, DESPITE RUMORS 
OF HIS FAILING HEALTH.  IT IS VIRTUALLY CERTAIN THAT MESHKINI 
WILL BE RE-ELECTED AND MAINTAIN THE LEADERSHIP OF THE BODY, BUT 
BECAUSE OF HIS HEALTH CONCERNS THERE IS PUBLIC SPECULATION THAT 
HE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SERVE ANOTHER FULL 8-YEAR TERM. 
MESBAH-YAZDI AND RAFSANJANI ARE COMPETING FOR THE POSITION OF 
ASSEMBLY SPEAKER AFTER MESHKINI EVENTUALLY VACATES THE POST, 
WHICH WOULD GIVE EITHER MAN THE ABILITY TO INFLUENCE THE 
SELECTION OF THE NEXT SUPREME LEADER IN HIS FAVOR. 
 
WILL PEOPLE VOTE? 
----------------- 
 
7.(C) OBSERVERS AND ANALYSTS, INCLUDING SEVERAL IRPO 
INTERLOCUTERS, PREDICT LOW VOTER TURNOUT, DESPITE THE CONCURRENT 
MUNICIPAL AND MAJLES BY-ELECTIONS.  THE ASSEMBLY MEETS ONLY 
TWICE A YEAR; ITS ACTIVITIES ARE NOT MADE PUBLIC AND APPEAR TO 
HAVE MINIMAL EFFECT ON THE DAILY LIVES OF IRANIANS, LEAVING THEM 
LITTLE INCENTIVE TO VOTE.  EVEN IN THE EUPHORIA FOLLOWING 
PRESIDENT MOHAMMAD KHATAMI'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION VICTORY OF 
1997 WHICH FEATURED WELL OVER 80 PERCENT VOTER TURNOUT, THE 1998 
ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS ELECTION ONLY ELICITED A 46 PERCENT VOTER 
TURNOUT, AND REGISTERED A PALTRY 37 PERCENT TURNOUT IN 1990. 
 
8.(C) COMMENT:  THIS ELECTION WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH TO 
SEE IF RAFSANJANI AND REFORMERS COALESCE TO COUNTER MESBAH-YAZDI 
IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY OR WHETHER THERE IS IN FACT A REAL SUPPORT 
GROUP FOR MESBAH-YAZDI.  SEPARATELY, ONE CHALLENGE TO THE US IS 
HOW TO FRAME OUR PUBLIC STATEMENTS ABOUT THIS ELECTION.  ON THE 
ONE HAND, WE ALWAYS CALL FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS, AND IN THE 
CASE OF IRAN, SPEAK OUT AGAINST THE VETTING OF CANDIDATES BY THE 
GUARDIAN COUNCIL.  ON THE OTHER HAND, WE DO NOT SUPPORT THE 
ENTITY WHICH IS BEING ELECTED, A BODY LIMITED TO CLERICS WHOSE 
MAIN RESPONSIBILITY IS TO SELECT THE SUPREME LEADER.  WE 
FREQUENTLY CITE AS A WEAKNESS OF THE IRANIAN SYSTEM THE FACT 
THAT ITS LEADER IS NOT DIRECTLY ELECTED BY THE POPULATION.  THIS 
YEAR THE ELECTION IS BEING HELD CONCURRENTLY WITH THE MUNICIPAL 
AND MAJLES BY-ELECTIONS, WHICH MEANS THAT WE SHOULD MAKE A 
BLANKET STATEMENT FOR FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS.  HOWEVER, IF WE 
DO NOT COMMENT SPECIFICALLY ON THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS, WE GIVE 
THIS BODY IMPLICIT APPROVAL.  (IT MAY BE USEFUL TO TRY TO FIND 
OUT HOW THE US COMMENTED ON THESE ELECTIONS EIGHT YEARS AGO.) 
WHILE POLITICAL LEADERS IN SOME DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES ARE NOT 
DIRECTLY ELECTED, ONE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IS THAT THE INTERMEDIARY 
BODY IN IRAN - ALTHOUGH DIRECTLY ELECTED - IS RESTRICTED TO 
SENIOR CLERICS.  (NOTE:  REF A MENTIONS AN UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPT 
WITHIN THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS THIS YEAR TO EXPAND MEMBERSHIP 
BEYOND CLERICS.)  IN OUR STATEMENTS WE SHOULD QUESTION THE 
RATIONALE FOR RESTRICTING THIS POWER TO CLERICS AND ASK WHY THE 
GOVERNMENT AVOIDS GIVING THIS POWER DIRECTLY TO THE PEOPLE. 
BURNS 
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