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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001307 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
AF/S FOR S. HILL 
NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR B. PITTMAN 
USAID FOR M. COPSON AND E. LOKEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2011 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PINR EFIN ZI
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH ZANU-PF'S MAKONI 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Christopher Dell under Section 1.4 b/d 
 
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Summary 
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¶1.  (C) In an October 26 meeting, ZANU-PF Politburo member 
Simba Makoni told the Ambassador the ruling party government 
is gridlocked and adrift.  Makoni professed ignorance of the 
details of the succession battle, in which he has been 
increasingly mentioned as a contender, but noted Mugabe may 
choose to stay in power.  On the economic front, Makoni 
acknowledged the government,s disastrous economic policies 
and said reform would require non-existent political will. 
Makoni, who attended the recent American Business Association 
of Zimbabwe (ABAZ) conference (septel), agreed with the 
Ambassador that the conference and follow-up private sector 
activities could help define the reforms needed for economic 
recovery, assuming a change of government.  End Summary. 
 
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ZANU-PF Gridlock 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Makoni told the Ambassador that the ZANU-PF 
government is gridlocked.  As a result the government and the 
country are adrift with no one in the GOZ making the 
necessary decisions to reverse failed and failing policies. 
One result is the dismal economic situation.  The GOZ,s 
command and control policies were leading to economic 
collapse.  He noted a UNDP comparative study of governments 
that had shown the GOZ engaged in more planning than 90 
percent of the sample governments but ranked in the bottom 
four percent in terms of effective implementation.  &Are we 
ready to do anything?8, he asked rhetorically.  Noting the 
continuing collapse of the economy, he answered himself in 
the negative--the political will is lacking.  He added that 
most Zimbabweans elites think of themselves first, then their 
tribes, next their political parties, and last their country. 
 
¶3.  (C) The Ambassador queried whether the state of the 
economy combined with political paralysis could portend an 
end of the regime.  Makoni responded that Mbutu had held on 
for 15 years as his country collapsed around him.  He noted 
that despite all the chatter about succession it was entirely 
possible that Mugabe could likewise decide to hang on to 
power indefinitely.  Makoni feigned ignorance of who the main 
contenders are in the succession struggle, despite the 
increasing number of reports that he is himself a potential 
successor. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
ABAZ Conference*Building Blocks for the Future 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶4.  (C) Makoni said that in his opinion nothing particularly 
new had come out of the ABAZ conference in October (septel). 
The reforms needed were widely known and have been discussed 
in other fora.  What is needed, he once more noted, is the 
political will to implement these solutions.  He pointed out 
there were only a small number of government officials 
present and that those officials who can make economic 
decisions did not attend. 
 
¶5.  (C) The Ambassador and Makoni agreed, however, that small 
meetings building on the conference could be a useful way to 
build a consensus on needed reforms to be implemented once 
there is a new and receptive government.  Participants in 
 
HARARE 00001307  002 OF 002 
 
 
such small meetings could include mid-level officials who 
would be part of the bureaucracy of a new government, 
professional economists and academics, a parliamentary 
portfolio committee leaders.  The Ambassador also noted that 
U.S. support of the ABAZ conference and follow-on serves to 
demystify the U.S. and demonstrate our potential to play a 
constructive role. 
 
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Comment 
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¶6.  (C) Makoni, a former Finance Minister, is linked by 
marriage to the Mujeru clan.  However, he is widely viewed 
within ZANU-PF as a technocrat with appeal to both the West 
and to average Zimbabweans.  In that regard, he is much like 
Central Bank head Gideon Gono, whose name has also begun to 
be mentioned as a potential successor.  We regard the fact 
that succession talk has increasingly shifted from Joyce 
Mujeru and Emmerson Mnangagwa, ZANU-PF dinosaurs, to these 
two individuals as a sign that the ruling party is 
increasingly aware of its lack of popular appeal and its need 
for external support if it is to reverse the economic 
collapse.  This effort to seek more moderate and more 
acceptable leadership to our mind underscores the degree to 
which the West can increasingly use financial incentives to 
leverage real reform here, both economic and democratic. 
DELL