VZCZCXRO9472
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHRY #1695/01 3191218
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151218Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0218
INFO RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEPGBA/CDR USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE//POLAD/J2//

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CONAKRY 001695 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
TREASURY FOR OFFICE OF AFRICAN NATIONS 
 
E.O. 12598:  N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON PREF EAID ELTN SOCI ASEC GV
SUBJECT:  Guinea's Movement Towards Political Consensus: At a 
Snail's Pace 
 
REFS: (A) Conakry 1579, (B) Conakry 1617 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  Little has been done to implement the 
recommendations by Guinea's opposition and majority political 
parties since they reached consensus on political reforms on October 
¶16.  The changes, including an independent electoral commission, 
would be wide-ranging and could greatly increase transparency and 
support a more effective democratic process (ref A).  However, the 
"Commission Paritaire" has disbanded without ensuring its 
recommendations are enacted into law.  Without a coherent plan of 
action, the government is pushing the international community to 
fill the void, abdicating its responsibility for necessary 
preparations for improved legislative elections.  End Summary. 
 
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Signed Document Does Not Represent Final Consensus 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On October 16, representatives from Guinea's majority and 
opposition political parties signed a series of recommended texts 
for an electoral commission, party financing, opposition status, and 
amendment of the electoral code.  The document represented the 
culmination of ongoing political dialogues since 2004 and recent 
deliberations by the "Commission Paritaire" (ref A).  The 
Commission, created on August 23, was comprised of 12 
representatives from opposition parties, 12 representatives from the 
ruling PUP and allied parties, and five representatives from the 
administration.  It convened from September 8 through October 16. 
The historic document represented wide-ranging political consensus, 
particularly on the creation of an independent electoral commission. 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Because of the impending visit by EC Commissioner Louis 
Michel (ref B) in late October, party representatives told us they 
felt pressure to reach consensus, fulfilling one of the major 
criteria to resume EC funding.  Opposition party representatives 
said the pressure was positive, as they believed the PUP and the 
administration might not have agreed to several of the 
recommendations had their backs not been against the wall. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) At the same time, the opposition objected to the October 
16 document being presented to the EC as a final agreed text. 
Opposition party leaders, including Sidya Toure, Jean-Marie Dore, 
and Ousmane Bah have all made public statements about amendments 
they intend to propose to the October 16 text.  These amendments are 
principally centered on Article 2, clarifying the process of 
"co-management" of the elections.  The opposition leaders all 
described the document as a step in the right direction, but not one 
of consensus. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
Government Will Meet With Party Leaders, No Date Set 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Opposition party leaders requested a meeting with the 
Interministerial Committee on Dialogue, chaired by Minister of State 
for Territorial Administration Moussa Solano, to present their 
comments and amendments to the text.  Solano initially refused to 
meet with them, reportedly saying, "They signed, they agreed, and it 
is too late for any objections."  Solano planned to use the October 
16 document as the basis for a draft bill to be presented to the 
National Assembly.  Our contacts within the Ministry of Territorial 
Administration and Decentralization told us that Solano recognizes 
the need for sustained dialogue and has now agreed to meet with the 
party leaders.  However, no date has been set. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Commission Views Its Work Completed 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) While the document is stuck in a back and forth between 
the political parties and the government, a new, independent 
electoral commission cannot be established to oversee the necessary 
preparations for next June's legislative elections.  Since the 
Commission Paritaire completed its recommendations, it has 
disbanded.  On November 9, Visiting AF/W Desk Officer Deji Okediji 
and Poloff met with four members of the Commission Paritaire - two 
from opposition groups UPR and UFR, one from the PUP, and one from a 
small party allied with the majority party.  They detailed days of 
very difficult negotiations but asserted that their work was 
complete; it was now up to the government and the National Assembly 
to take the next steps. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) We encouraged them to take ownership of the entire process 
and to come back together to exert pressure on their party leaders 
and the administration to ensure that their work was not wasted. 
 
CONAKRY 00001695  002 OF 002 
 
 
The commission representatives agreed that until the recommendations 
become law, nothing will change.  They also said that certain key 
actors have a vested interest in stalling, so the election countdown 
expires without reforms being implemented.  With positive signs that 
the EC might release funding, one opposition party representative 
told Poloff that the pressure no longer exists to force the 
government's hand.  However, they promised to do their part to get 
the text moving once again. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
If You Want Transparent Elections, You Have to Pay 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) While the government did present a formal funding proposal 
to UNDP and the EC, the Ministry of Territorial Administration and 
Decentralization (MATD) has not followed up with the necessary 
details to engage the process.  During the weekly meeting of 
elections donors on November 8, the UNDP and EC representatives 
expressed significant frustration with government interlocutors who 
are either unwilling or unable to produce a plan of action for the 
elections.  Thus far, Guinea has produced a timetable with specific 
goals listed, but no details on what actions are necessary to meet 
these objectives, who is tasked with each, and how much they will 
cost.  The UNDP and EC representatives told us the ministry says it 
cannot complete a plan because it has never used the machines and 
the automated processes for voter identification that the EC has 
promised to fund. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The government has been provided with recommendations by 
the UNDP electoral expert who conducted a needs assessment for 
electoral financing, but MATD representatives said they are still 
"studying" the paper.  The EC representative confirmed that although 
the ministry could not articulate its vision for the electoral 
process, it has contested the part of funding document that 
prohibits the purchase of vehicles.  The newly appointed director of 
electoral activities (who served under Solano during the 2003 
presidential elections), told the EC rep that in order to be 
successful, it will need fifty 4x4 vehicles to be purchased for its 
use.  Although the government has said for weeks that it plans to 
hold a donors conference to detail its election plan, no date has 
been set for this either. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Guinea's preparations for its June 2007 legislative 
elections are moving forward, but the momentum is definitely in fits 
and starts.  Actors remain in a reactive mode.  While the EC is 
prepared to put forward 7.5 million euros for the election process, 
the government has not articulated its plan on how it will use these 
funds to guarantee an improved process.  Instead, it is waiting for 
the donors to take the lead.  At the same time, the "consensus" 
reached between the government and political parties has not 
translated into any concrete actions.  With a tight schedule to meet 
for the June 2007 elections, Guinea's pace of progress must quicken 
or it will lose its race toward transparent elections. 
 
MCDONALD