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INFO RUCNCOM/EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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RUMIAAA/HQ USSOUTHCOM J2 MIAMI FL PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 002027 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CAR AND INR/IAA 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ST XL
SUBJECT: ST. LUCIA ELECTIONS DECEMBER 11; COMPETING 
POLLSTERS CONFLICT IN PREDICTING VICTORY 
 
REF: BRIDGETOWN 1946 
 
Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  Prime Minister Anthony announced that St. 
Lucian elections will be held on December 11.  Two key polls 
have predicted conflicting outcomes for the elections.  The 
track record of the pollster predicting that the ruling party 
will retain its majority in Parliament seems to be the more 
reliable.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) On November 16, St. Lucia's PM Kenny Anthony announced 
that parliamentary elections will be held December 11, 2006. 
If PM Anthony's St. Lucian Labour Party (SLP) wins, it will 
mean a precedent-making third term for the ruling party. 
Previous to its current administration (1997-present), the 
SLP held power from 1979-82.  PM Anthony pushed the date for 
this election to the limit:  constitutionally, elections 
should be held every five years.  The last elections took 
place December 3, 2001. 
 
Dueling Pollsters 
----------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Two polls, financed respectively by the two major 
political parties, reached contradictory predictions of the 
outcome of the upcoming elections.  The Caribbean Development 
Research Services, Inc. (CADRES), retained by the ruling St. 
Lucian Labour Party (SLP), predicted an SLP victory. 
According to the CADRES poll conducted in October 2006, 34 
percent of those surveyed preferred the SLP, while 28 percent 
supported the opposition United Workers Party (UWP), with a 
margin of error of 5 percent at the national level.  The 
polling results of an American firm hired by the UWP showed 
that the challengers were ahead in 11 of 17 districts, with 
two more leaning toward the UWP. 
 
¶4. (U) In the CADRES poll, 37 percent of those surveyed 
refused to say which party they support and were labeled 
"uncertain voters."  To bolster its prediction of an SLP 
victory, CADRES noted that, when comparing this year's data 
to that of a November 2005 survey, voters' references reflect 
a 10 percent upswing in favor of the SLP against an 8 percent 
drop in UWP popularity.  Furthermore, 29 percent of the 
"uncertain voters" placed greater confidence in the SLP to 
lead St. Lucia, while 18 percent were more confident in the 
UWP's ability.  Finally, those surveyed were asked their 
preferred choice for Prime Minister, with 47 percent choosing 
SLP leader and standing Prime Minister Anthony, while only 29 
percent supported veteran UWP leader (and former Prime 
Minister, 1964-79 and 1982-96) Sir John Compton.  This 
outcome is a notable change from the 2005 data in which only 
39 percent preferred PM Anthony to 40 percent for Compton. 
To date, CADRES claims to have achieved 100 percent accuracy 
in pre-election polling in the Eastern Caribbean. 
 
¶5. (C) The UWP hired an American firm to conduct a poll in 
late October 2006.  Although post has not yet received a copy 
of the results, a UWP figure reported to PolOff that the 
methodology of this poll focused more on individual districts 
than the CADRES poll.  According to the UWP source, the 
results show that the UWP is clearly ahead in 11 districts, 
the SLP is ahead in four, with two seats too close to call, 
but likely to go to the UWP.  The UWP-funded poll results 
also indicated a near dead heat in voter preference for prime 
minister, with Compton ahead of Anthony by just one or two 
points. 
 
Polling Challenges 
------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) Political consultant Peter Wickham, head of CADRES, 
explained to PolOff why district polling tends to be 
unreliable in Eastern Caribbean islands.  According to 
Wickham, it is unwise to place confidence in results based on 
district seats because of the difficulty in surveying an 
appropriate sample size.  Wickham explained that to have 
accurate district data, a sample size of roughly 1000 voters 
would have to be surveyed in each district, which is 
challenging in the Eastern Caribbean for two reasons. 
Because the population of each district is small, too large a 
sample results in oversampling of the necessary clusters. 
Second, obtaining accurate results from that many people is 
neither culturally nor logistically feasible (NFI). 
Therefore, although elections are won by individual district 
 
results, survey data attempting to predict outcomes by 
district are unreliable, according to Wickham.  He further 
stated that, from his extensive experience as a Caribbean 
pollster, district polling is not necessary because national 
polling trends commonly reflect district results.  Coupling 
his statistical knowledge with his personal observations of 
the St. Lucia campaign, Wickham predicts that the UWP will 
gain a couple seats, but that the SLP will retain its 
majority--currently 13 of 17 seats. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (C) CADRES's statistical methodology uses formulas the 
firm developed to account for unique characteristics of 
Eastern Caribbean populations.  Wickham credits his "100 
percent success rate" at calling elections to this specially 
tailored methodology.  Three weeks away from election day, 
CADRES's prediction of an SLP victory seems sound and is 
consistent with post's analysis (reftel).   Furthermore, 
general momentum, as seen in the press, at political rallies, 
and in the form of banners and posters around the capital 
Castries, appears to reflect the ruling party's stronger 
position. 
OURISMAN