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C O N F I D E N T I A L BRIDGETOWN 001946 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR 
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ST XL
SUBJECT: ST. LUCIA: RULING PARTY HAS A LEG UP ON A CLOSE 
ELECTION 
 
REF: A. BRIDGETOWN 469 
 
     ¶B. BRIDGETOWN 239 
 
Classified By: DCM Mary Ellen T. Gilroy for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  St. Lucia faces a close race in the upcoming 
national elections, which have not yet been called but are 
expecteD sometime in December.  The opposition party is 
resting its hopes on the current desire for change apparent 
among the populace, while the ruling party is basing its 
campaign on recent accomplishments and more experienced 
candidates.  The results will largely depend on whether the 
people feel only a party turnover can bring the change they 
desire.  The ruling party seems to have recently regained 
momentum and will likely win a third-term in office.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
----------------------- 
AN ATMOSPHERE OF CHANGE 
----------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Prime Minister of St. Lucia Kenny Anthony will soon 
call elections, likely for early December, as he is 
constitutionally mandated to do by the end of the year.  Once 
appearing to be a sure win for the ruling party, the 
elections now appear to be much closer, leaving some 
political observers unwilling to predict a victor.  Richard 
Frederick's victory in the March 2006 by-election for the 
Castries Central seat gave renewed hope to the opposition 
party and, according to political observers, shook PM 
Anthony's confidence (ref A).  The opposition party, the 
United Workers Party (UWP), is interpreting this by-election 
as evidence of the people's desire for change.  Guy Mayers, 
an opposition candidate, stated that the failure of the 
ruling party to win the March by-election against a 
last-minute independent candidate illustrates the ruling 
party's vulnerability.  Many compare this atmosphere of 
change to the elections of 1997, the last time there was a 
major power shift. 
 
¶3. (C) According to Sir John Compton, leader of the UWP and 
Prime Minister in 1964-79 and 1982-96, the ruling party has 
lost all credibility by breaking too many promises over the 
last nine years.  Furthermore, opposition leaders claim 
possible corruption in the government, citing sudden 
increases in the standard of living of many MPs following 
their victory in 1997. 
 
----------- 
THE PLAYERS 
----------- 
 
¶4. (C) Although PM Anthony is still the clear leader of the 
ruling St. Lucian Labour Pary (SLP), his popularity has waned 
recently.  Because of this trend, he cannot count on his 
popularity alone and has brought in reinforcements.  Dr. 
Julian Hunte, a former MP, returned from serving as 
Ambassador to the United Nations to run as an SLP candidate, 
and Dr. Vaughn Lewis, former Prime Minister and UWP leader, 
has crossed the aisle to run with the SLP.  Also, seven 
incumbents are running again, including Ministers Philip 
Pierre, Felix Finisterre, and Damian Greaves, all very 
popular and seen as effective ministers. 
 
¶5. (C) The jury is still out, however, on the addition of 
Lewis to the SLP slate.  Some believe Lewis provides further 
credibility to SLP because of his doctorate, his leadership 
of the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS) for 
fourteen years, and his short stint as Prime Minister in 
¶1996.  Other observers disagree, explaining that St. Lucians 
shy away from voting for losers.  Because of Lewis's loses in 
1997 and 2001, many see Lewis as a loser and believe he will 
hurt the ruling party's chances in the upcoming elections. 
 
¶6. (C) Having served as Prime Minister for almost 30 years, 
Compton is a legend in St. Lucian politics.  The rest of the 
UWP candidates, though, are young and inexperienced. 
Stephenson King is seen as one of the more respected leaders 
of the party, but lost in 1997 and 2001, tarnishing his 
image.  Guy Mayers, another up and coming leader, is a 
businessman and previous president of the Chamber of 
Commerce, but is a first-time candidate and new to the public 
sector.  In short, the SLP is seen as having a "much deeper 
bench" than the opposition, with both its first and second 
tier of leadership showing greater education and experience 
than even the first tier of the UWP.  However, Compton stated 
 
that, even with their inexperience, his party will prevail 
because the SLP candidates suffer from a loss of credibility 
due to the corruption and broken promises of the last nine 
years. 
 
¶7. (C) After his victory in the March by-election, many UWP 
supporters see Frederick as the new blood of the UWP.  As 
with Lewis, though, Frederick is receiving mixed reviews. 
Two party leaders confirmed that considerable friction exists 
behind the scenes between Compton and Frederick.  Also, 
newspaper editor and independent observer Victor Marquis 
claims that Frederick has a dark cloud over him because of 
his alleged criminal activities that will hurt his 
credibility in the election.  (NOTE: Marquis confirmed to 
PolOff Frederick's suspected drug and crime involvement 
reported in reftel A.  Marquis explained that his last 
live-in girlfriend of two years was previously Frederick's 
girlfriend.  She confided in Marquis everything she knew 
about Frederick's questionable activities.  Marquis said that 
he has an alarm on his house and fears what will happen to 
him if Frederick learns what he knows.  According to Marquis, 
what is widely known of Frederick's criminal behavior is not 
half of what there is to know.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶8. (C) Another journalist, Timothy Poleon, countered Marquis' 
argument by suggesting that Frederick's alleged crime 
connections will actually help him in the election. 
According to Poleon, people are asking why the Prime Minister 
does not arrest Frederick if the allegations against him are 
true?  Poleon stated that lack of government action against 
Frederick is convincing the populace that the allegations are 
simply spin and have no basis. 
 
------------------------ 
AN ELECTION WON BY SEATS 
------------------------ 
 
¶9. (C) When analyzing individual seats, a ruling party 
victory looks likely.  Most observers, including independent 
and opposition figures, pinpoint five seats the SLP is likely 
to win: Vieux Fort South (PM Anthony's district), Vieux Fort 
North, Laborie, Dennery South, and Castries East.  In 
addition to these five seats, popular incumbents are running 
in another four districts, giving the SLP a good chance to 
win at least nine of 17 seats.  The only seat currently going 
to the UWP with confidence is Compton's district, Micoud 
North. 
 
------------------ 
SIGNS TO WATCH FOR 
------------------ 
 
¶11. (SBU) In campaigning, SLP leaders have sought to parade 
the current government's successes during its nine-year 
tenure, particularly those in infrastructure development. 
Their goal is to remind voters of the increased electricity 
production and distribution throughout the island, the 
newly-built prison, the creation of universal health care and 
universal secondary education, and the expansion of 
telecommunications, roads, and water supply.  SLP leaders 
will also point out that the opposition has yet to provide 
solutions to areas where they claim change is needed: crime 
and the economy.  Much of the election will rest on the 
ability of the SLP to shore up its credibility, while the UWP 
attempts to rip it down.  This battle will play a significant 
role in the elections. 
 
¶12. (C) Another important factor is campaign financing. 
Because of the relatively small size of Saint Lucia's 
economy, campaign contributions go a long way, particularly 
when politicians pass the funds directly to members of the 
electorate (ref B).  For example, party t-shirts wrapped 
around money are common at campaign rallies, as are 
politicians buying groceries or sponsoring house repairs.  In 
private conversations with PolOff, various opposition 
figures, including Compton, emphasized that they are unsure 
how they will counter the ruling party's ability to obtain 
and use campaign funds. 
 
¶13. (SBU) The most flashy sign of support is attendance at 
campaign rallies.  These rallies essentially play out like 
parties -- the more fun the party and more popular the 
entertainers, the larger the crowd.  Larger crowds mean more 
people wearing t-shirts in the sponsoring party's color, as 
well as more goodies, such as flags and banners, handed out 
and popping up in shop windows and automobiles.  If 
 
successful, this can lead to a band wagon mentality where 
people begin supporting the "more popular" party.  Early in 
the campaign, rallies put on by either party were equally 
well attended.  However, according to observers, SLP red is 
starting to appear in more windows and on more cars than UWP 
yellow, as attendance at SLP rallies continues to increase. 
 
¶14. (C) Finally, Marquis projected that Compton will bow out 
of the race if he thinks his party will lose the elections. 
According to Marquis, Compton will not let himself be a 
standing opposition MP because the persecution he would face 
from the ruling party would damage his reputation and legacy. 
 Although Compton did not directly confirm this, he 
emphasized his desire for a strong hold on power by stating 
he would not be happy with anything less than 12 seats. 
According to Compton, SLP supporters would be in the streets 
rallying against him if he wins a narrow majority. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶15. (C) Although there are many who are ready for change in 
St. Lucia, particularly with the worsening crime and economic 
situations, the momentum is not yet strong enough to force 
the SLP out of office.  The UWP cannot match the breadth of 
experience found in the SLP camp.  The strongest UWP figure 
is its leader Compton; he is the glue holding the party 
together.  Currently, there are no other obvious candidates 
to lead the UWP which is why the party asked Compton to come 
out of retirement.  However, Compton is a polarizing figure. 
As Prime Minister, Compton often awarded party supporters 
with appointments and scholarships, while ostracizing SLP 
supporters.  Because of this, Compton is despised by his 
opponents as much as he is revered by his supporters. 
 
¶16. (C) One of the most interesting characters to come out of 
this election is Frederick, who is quickly positioning 
himself as a future UWP leader.  Frederick is popular, 
charismatic, wealthy, has had a successful career as a police 
officer and lawyer, and, most importantly, is viewed as 
politically powerful because of his surprising victory in the 
March by-election.  His possible criminal ties, however, make 
his rise to power worrisome.  It is unlikely that Frederick 
will lose his seat against SLP's Lewis, and another victory 
in his district in such a short time will solidy his power in 
the UWP, regardless of the general outcome of the elections. 
 
¶17. (C) How this election will affect U.S. interests in 
international relations, crime, and the economy in St. Lucia 
will be reported in septel. 
OURISMAN