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DE RUEHLA #0166/01 3071128
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 031128Z NOV 06
FM AMCONSUL BARCELONA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0786
INFO RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID PRIORITY 0757
RUEHLA/AMCONSUL BARCELONA PRIORITY 0949
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BARCELONA 000166 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR/WE FOR G. CLEMENTS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SP
SUBJECT: MAS/CONVERGENCE WIN CATALAN REGIONAL ELECTIONS; PARTIES RACE 
TO FORM NEXT REGIONAL GOVERNMENT 
 
REF: BARCELONA 162 
 
BARCELONA 00000166  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Artur Mas led the Convergence and Union (CiU) 
coalition to victory November 1 in regional autonomous 
elections, but without enough seats to form the next government 
alone.  The Socialist Party of Catalunya (PSC) came in a distant 
second followed by the Catalan Leftist Party (ERC), the Popular 
Party of Catalunya (PP), and a coalition of progressive parties. 
 The race is now on to see if Mas can successfully form the next 
government, or if the Socialist-led three party (Tripartite) 
coalition can rally back into power.  Nationally, the results of 
these elections will be interpreted as confirmation of the 
Catalan desire for greater autonomy and as pressure on the 
Zapatero government to fully implement the new Catalan autonomy 
statute (Estatut).  Locally, this will be seen as a cold shower 
for the Socialist (the big losers), but not the clear message 
against the Tripartite Mas wanted.  Since PM Zapatero is known 
to have good relations with CiU heavyweights, a CiU-PSC is far 
from out of the question.  The picture will remain fuzzy as the 
two main parties stake their claim for control of the 
Parliament.  End Summary. 
 
Winners and Losers~ 
 
¶2. (SBU)  Artur Mas and the Convergence and Union (CiU) 
coalition were the clear winners, and the Jose Mantilla-led 
Socialist Party of Catalunya (PSC) the clear losers according to 
the results of the November 1 Catalunya regional elections. 
With all the votes counted, the 135-seat Parliament will look 
this way: 
 
- Convergence and Union (CiU) - 31.5 percent/48 seats 
- Socialist Party of Catalunya (PSC) - 26.8 percent/37seats 
- Catalan Leftist Party (ERC) - 14.1 percent/21 seats 
- Popular Party (PP) - 10.6 percent/14 seats 
- Green Initiative for Catalunya-United Left and Alternative 
(ICV-EUiA) - 9.6 percent/12 seats 
- Citizens Party (C) - 3 percent/3 seats 
 
The CiU gained two more seats since the 2003 elections while the 
PSC dropped five seats; the ERC lost two seats; and as for the 
small parties, the PP lost one seat, ICV-EUiA gained three 
seats, and the upstart, anti-nationalist Citizens party gained 
three seats.  The Citizens' victory took pundits by surprise. 
The result reveals the dissatisfaction of a small, but growing, 
sector of Catalans whose roots lie outside the region, and thus, 
put the Spanish language on the same level as Catalan. 
 
~and Questions 
 
¶3. (SBU) As expected, the results answered some questions, but 
left several important ones unanswered for the time being.  The 
most critical one at the moment is who will be elected president 
of the region after the new Parliament convenes on the last week 
of November or the first week of December.  Mas finds himself in 
the same situation he was in after the 2003 vote where he won 
the most seats, but was nevertheless outmaneuvered for control 
of the Parliament and the presidency by the PSC.  In this 
election, however, Mas is in a better position not only because 
he won handily, but because Montilla's loss was so decisive 
(Note:  The Socialists are now 11 seats back, in 2003 they were 
only four seats behind.  End Note.)  Nevertheless, his chances 
of cobbling together the 68 votes necessary to form a government 
remain unclear.  The PP, CiU's most obvious ally, did not 
receive enough votes for the two parties to form a government 
together (never mind that Mas declared prior to the elections 
that his party would not form a pact with the PP). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The PSC, for its part, has much soul searching to do. 
On the one hand, the people of Catalunya fairly clearly 
expressed displeasure with how it has governed over the past 
three years (with a disjointed coalition and too many diverging 
interests).  Moreover, former Trade and Industry Minister 
Montilla's campaign never really caught fire here, despite PM 
Zapatero's five visits to the region to support his campaign. 
Even Montilla's ability to lead the PSC in the Parliament might 
be called into question.  On the other hand, the PSC's natural 
allies and former coalition partners, the ERC and the ICV-EUiA, 
both did well enough to keep their hopes alive and possibly 
return all three to power.  Again, how well Montilla can 
negotiate a deal, perhaps even a deal where one of the other 
partners gains the presidency, will be key. 
 
Timelines 
 
¶5. (U)  The final results should be certified in about two weeks 
- only an estimated 300,00 absentee ballots remain to be 
counted.  The new Parliament will likely be seated either 
November 21 or November 26 after the board of the Parliament is 
 
BARCELONA 00000166  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
elected.  Voting for the next President of the Generalitat will 
begin on the day the Parliament is seated.  The outgoing 
President of the Parliament will propose a candidate to succeed 
him.  There is a maximum ten day period for the candidate 
selected by the President to confirm support for his candidacy. 
The candidate to the presidency will then present an outline of 
his program to the Parliament.  If the candidate wins a majority 
of the votes in Parliament he is elected President.  If he does 
not win that vote he is presented again forty-eight hours later, 
and only needs a plurality to be elected.  The President will 
then present his cabinet members.  We expect to have a new 
government in place by December 1 if negotiations and general 
agreement are reached. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  Comment:  Now comes the hard part for all concerned. 
Mas, whose hard nosed pre-election tactics made him appear 
strong, failed to win the outright majority he sought.  He has 
now backed himself into a corner having alienated those who 
might have joined him in a coalition.  How he gets out of that 
corner will be interesting to see.  So far, Montilla has taken a 
wait and see approach, and is clearly not ruling out a return to 
a Tripartite government, which he hopes he can run better than 
the last one.  The other parties, particularly the ERC, will see 
what they are offered for their services.  There are also rumors 
that PM Zapatero's influence might be in play before all is said 
and done - he is said to have very good relations with both Mas 
and the CiU's man in Madrid Antonio Duran Lleda.  If that is the 
case, a CiU-PSC could square this circle quite nicely.  End 
Comment. 
ROBINSON