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O 291250Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3930
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0743
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001334 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
Department for AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
Paris for D'Elia 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PHUM PINR MA
SUBJECT: Ravalomanana Leads in the Home Stretch 
 
REF:  A) ANTANANARIVO 1324 AND PREVIOUS 
 
B) ANTANANARIVO 001320 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  In the last stretch of the campaign season, only 
a handful of the 14 presidential candidates have any real hopes of 
making a showing in the December 3 polls.  The five main contenders 
are waging all-out campaigns around the country, with incumbent 
President Ravalomanana in the lead in terms of national coverage. 
The remaining nine candidates have gambled away their modest public 
backing with cryptic messages and a joint statement of support for 
the renegade General Fidy.  Ravalomanana's camp confidently declares 
that he will secure a first round victory, but the four main 
challengers seek to garner enough combined votes to deny the 
President an absolute majority and thus force a run-off.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
ON THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (SBU) The competing campaign rallies held in Antananarivo over 
the past week were essentially "popularity contests," complete with 
musical guests and candidate-inspired paraphernalia.  President 
Ravalomanana and Herizo Razafimahaleo drew the largest crowds, 
although Ravalomanana has a far larger following in Antananarivo. 
By contrast, the "Union of Candidates for the Defense of Legality 
and Democracy" recently formed by the eight candidates (including Ny 
Hasina Andriamanjato, Philippe Tsiranana, Pety Rakotoniaina, Pastor 
Daniel Rajakoba, General Ferdinanad Razakarimanana, Monja Roindefo 
and Rakotonirina Manandafy) who supported General Fidy's botched 
coup attempt (REF A) had a disappointing turnout with supporters 
numbering in the low hundreds.  The cryptic statements of the 
"Union" candidates may have been partly to blame.  Wavering between 
boycotting, abstaining from or moving ahead with elections, the 
candidates agreed only on denouncing the legality of the December 3 
election date and the election preparations.  With such politically 
unsophisticated opponents, Ravalomanana's people are insisting the 
President will score a first-round victory, although challengers are 
hoping for a second round. 
 
¶3. (U) President Ravalomanana has campaigned boldly in the centers 
of support of his most serious challengers.  From Antananarivo he 
has now moved on to tackle the politically significant region of 
Fianarantsoa.  There he aims to shift political support from three 
other candidates -- Pety Rakotoniaina, Herizo Razafimahaleo and 
Rakotonirina Manandafy -- who hail from this southern region. 
 
SHIFTING ALLEGIANCES ON THE COAST? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (U) The campaign heated up over the weekend in the traditional 
opposition-stronghold of Toamasina (also known as Tamatave) on the 
east coast.  President Ravalomanana and Mayor of Toamasina Roland 
Ratsiraka (nephew of former President Didier Ratsiraka) ran the same 
campaign circuit only a few days apart.  Despite distribution of 
fliers threatening to set fire to the house of any Ravalomanana 
supporters, the President reportedly packed the stadium with 
promises to make Toamasina "the showcase of the Indian Ocean" and 
his development priority for the next five years.  The surprising 
response the President received in the historical support base of 
the former ruling AREMA party may partly stem from some people's 
dissatisfaction with Ratsiraka's performance as mayor.  Similarly, 
President Ravalomanana was greeted enthusiastically in the south 
western coastal town of Tulear, where candidate and former Speaker 
of the Assembly, Jean Lahiniriko has his base. 
 
¶5. (SBU) To prevent coastal support from shifting toward the 
President, some candidates continue to play on the historical ethnic 
tension between those living on the coasts ("Cotier") and those 
living on the high plateau (including the dominant "Merina"). 
Embassy staff traveling in northern Madagascar in and around Diego 
Suarez (also known as Antsiranana) in the middle of the campaign 
encountered the long-standing local animosity to the Merina class, 
which includes President Ravalomanana.  Several interlocutors 
dismissed the new roads, hospitals and schools to complain about 
jobs and inflation.  Despite Ravalomanana spending his first 
campaign days in Diego Suarez, commentators said things like "he 
wants to kill coastal people," and blamed him for the drought. 
While this tension very much exists in coastal areas like Diego 
Suarez where hate of anything Merina runs strong, both Cotier and 
Merina people have expressed to us that politicians will be less 
successful in playing the ethnicity card this time around, in part 
because the Malagasy electorate is wiser to this kind of 
manipulation and in part because there has been more inter-ethnic 
mixing in recent years.  In addition, those Malagasy earning a 
living, even indirectly, from tourism seem to support Ravalomanana 
 
ANTANANARI 00001334  002 OF 002 
 
 
strongly, both for his positive impact on this industry, in terms of 
infrastructure development, and for fear of the negative economic 
impact that would result if there is not a peaceful political 
continuation. 
 
ELECTION PREPARATIONS IN HAND 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6. (U) Madagascar will have around 15,000 election observers, nearly 
200 of which are international.  In addition to members of the 
diplomatic community already on the ground, international observers 
are starting to arrive in Antananarivo from the Southern African 
Development Community (SADC) Secretariat and Parliamentary Forum, 
the African Union (AU), the Commission for the Indian Ocean (COI), 
the International Organization for the Francophonie (OIF), the 
European Union, the National Democratic Institute (NDI), Norway, 
Switzerland, Japan and South Africa.  The Ministry of Interior is 
optimistic that election preparations are well in hand, but 
international donors remain somewhat concerned about the margin of 
error in the electronic voter registration lists finalized on 
November 29. 
 
MINISTER PUBLICLY REAFFIRMS PRESS FREEDOM 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7. (U) In the wake of President Ravalomanana's controversial 
campaign speech, in which he lashed out at irresponsible 
journalists, the Minister of Communication met with the journalists' 
crisis committee formed November 19 (REF B) to reassure them that 
the GOM has no intention of muzzling or punishing the press.  He 
affirmed that the President has suspended until further notice plans 
to increase sanctions in the penal code for journalists in violation 
of media regulations. 
 
ELECTION-RELATED CRIME ON THE RISE? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8. (SBU) Post has received unconfirmed reports of allegedly 
election-related crime; no injuries or casualties were reported. 
The homes of Ravalomanana supporters in Antananarivo and Toamasina 
were reportedly set on fire November 23.  In an unrelated attack one 
day later, assailants launched grenades, none of which exploded, at 
a Tiko facility (the President's company) in Diego Suarez.  General 
Fidy's camp has been quiet over the past week, but he remains at 
large and some contacts fear he may make another attempt to sabotage 
the election.  In light of other election-related security 
incidents, Post will continue to monitor the security situation as 
elections approach. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶9. (SBU) Ravalomanana's camp seems to be pushing hard for a decisive 
victory in the first round, although some observers note it could be 
in his political interest to aim for a second round in order to 
avoid the inevitable accusations of fraud if his total is barely 
above the 50 percent needed for a first round victory.  Challenger 
Herizo Razafimahaleo -- who some now say is the President's main 
rival -- had a surprisingly strong showing over the weekend, but he 
has a long way to go to build on the four percent backing he 
received in the 2001 presidential election.  Along with the other 
three main challengers, Norbert Ratsirahonana, Roland Ratsiraka, and 
Jean Lahiniriko, he will have to campaign hard to carve out support 
in a Ravalomanana-dominated campaign season.  Our informal "polling" 
in the provinces suggests Ravalomanana is unpopular, except when 
compared to his 13 opponents.  He also represents stability, which 
Malagasy crave above all else.  Voter participation will represent a 
touchstone of Madagascar's democratic progress.  Although some of 
President Ravalomanana's supporters fear voter abstention, Post 
generally expects good voter participation.  END COMMENT. 
 
MCGEE