VZCZCXRO3926
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1304/01 3241351
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 201351Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3890
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY PRIORITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 0733
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 001304 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/FO, AF/E, INR/AA, DRL 
FOR DS/IP/AF AKORT 
FOR DS/DSS/ITA DROTHSTEIN 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PINR ASEC CASC MA
SUBJECT: GENERAL FIDY STILL AT LARGE AFTER COUP ATTEMPT 
 
REF:  ANTANANARIVO 1297 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  Antananarivo is calm and quiet in the wake of the 
failed weekend coup attempt although the "coup" leader, General 
Fidy, remains in hiding and in occasional contact with the press. 
Fidy appears to have grossly over-reached as few military officers 
rallied to his cause.  During his short-lived takeover of Ivato Air 
Force Base, a number of weapons and ammunition were stolen; all have 
now been returned.  Although slow in responding, the Government of 
Madagascar (GOM) has now issued a statement reassuring the public 
and appealing for calm in the run-up to the December 3 Presidential 
election.  The Embassy continues to monitor the situation closely 
and will issue an updated warden message to Americans if the 
situation shows any signs of deteriorating.  At the moment, that 
appears unlikely.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Three days after a failed "coup attempt" resulting in the 
death of one soldier (reftel), the GOM has reclaimed Ivato Air Force 
Base, but General Andrianafidisoa (Fidy) remains at large. Police 
forces and gendarmes searched his home over the weekend, reportedly 
pursuant to an arrest warrant.  Embassy security contacts report 
President Ravalomanana was furious when he heard news of the attempt 
and demanded Fidy be brought in at once.  Meanwhile, General Fidy 
continues to give local and international press interviews from a 
secret location. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
¶3. (U) In several interviews, General Fidy has described and 
justified his actions of November 17 and 18.  He insists if the GOM 
truly wanted to find him, it would be possible by tracking his phone 
calls.  Fidy has also said his efforts do not constitute a "coup 
attempt," because Ravalomanana's government is not legitimate. 
 
GOM Reaction 
------------ 
 
¶4.  (U)  Over 24 hours after the attempted coup, the GOM issued a 
statement, signed by the Minister of Telecommunications, on radio 
and television acknowledging General Fidy's actions, assuring it had 
taken "the necessary measures," and appealing for the "calm, 
vigilance and wisdom" of the Malagasy people (full text in Paragraph 
11). The GOM called for solidarity against seditious actions to 
ensure free, fair and transparent elections on December 3. 
 
¶5.  (U) At a campaign rally in Antananarivo November 19, President 
Ravalomanana warned his opponents not to work with "troublemakers," 
and insisted the rule of law would prevail in Madagascar.  The 
President defiantly stated he will not be frightened by threats.  He 
cautioned all journalists - Malagasy and international - and media 
outlet owners in Madagascar against publishing "unchecked news." 
(Note:  A BBC report numbered Fidy's supporters at 100, by far the 
highest estimate.  Fidy has been on the front page of most local 
newspapers the last three days.  End Note). 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Consistent with GOM efforts to downplay the situation, GOM 
General Raonenantsoamampianina, Head of the Army General Staff, said 
in a national television interview that this is an internal military 
argument that will be handled "in the family."  Some of our military 
contacts pointed out that the lack of following for General Fidy was 
a positive sign for Madagascar's democracy.  In addition, they 
reported that all of the weapons taken during the short-lived 
takeover of Ivato Air Force Base have been recovered and returned to 
their armories. 
 
Protest at Embassies? 
--------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU)  On November 18 Antananarivo's Radio ACEEM broadcast a 
declaration by Pierre Tsiranana (brother of presidential candidate 
Philippe Tsiranana, of the PFDM, and son of the first Malagasy 
president) calling for "sit-ins" at the French, Japanese and 
American Embassies to protest the international community's support 
for the December 3 election date.  Opposition contacts report a 
final date for demonstrations has not been selected, but confirmed 
that planning for possible demonstrations at foreign missions was 
ongoing. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Several opposition officials have told the Embassy that 
most of the 13 opponent candidates are meeting regularly to 
coordinate strategy.  While no opposition candidate has a national 
following, some have regional bases of support and significant 
financial resources: 
 
--  Fianarantsoa natives Pety Rakotoniaina and Herizo Razafimahaleo 
 
ANTANANARI 00001304  002 OF 003 
 
 
are outspoken opponents of Ravalomanana with supporters in south 
central Madagascar; 
 
--  Tamatave Mayor Roland Ratsiraka is unpopular in his own city, 
but has name recognition, money, and the support of some politicians 
from the old regime; 
 
--  Former transition president Norbert Ratsirahonana is the biggest 
threat to Ravalomanana's Antananarivo Merina ethnic base.  He 
repeatedly denies publicly that he will withdraw to support the 
President; 
 
--  Ny Hasina Andriamanjato, a wealthy former Minister, lost to 
Ravalomanana in the Antananarivo mayoral election and holds a 
grudge.  His father, opposition figure Pastor Andriamanjato, 
publicly endorsed General Fidy's actions; 
 
-- Jean Lahinrinko (former National Assembly President) and 
Manandafy each has substantial resources and public followings in 
the southern Tulear province. 
 
Emergency Action Committee Reconvenes 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (U) Ambassador reconvened the Emergency Action Committee (EAC), 
meeting at 1000 local time November 20 to discuss the situation. 
Members agreed that calm still prevailed in Antananarivo, with 
people going about their business and no particular threat to 
Americans.  There is no evidence of an enhanced security presence. 
The EAC agreed there was no need to issue an immediate Warden 
Message but may propose one later this week to remind Americans to 
be aware of election activities leading up to and after December 3 
and to remain vigilant with regard to personal security. 
 
COMMENT: 
-------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Slow to give a public response, the GOM has now made 
significant efforts to downplay the weekend's events.  One 
culturally-rooted explanation for the delayed response is that to 
acknowledge the event would be to lend it importance.  Another 
Malagasy interpretation is that General Fidy was not apprehended 
because he would somehow be more problematic as a "martyr" if he 
were a prisoner.  Yet another conspiracy theory suggests that 
President Ravalomanana orchestrated the entire affair; perhaps to 
give him an excuse to crack down on the opposition.  The 
half-hearted nature of General Fidy's attempt and his easy escape 
are equally perplexing.  Some Embassy GOM contacts insist Fidy is 
being closely monitored, while others assert he will be arrested as 
soon possible.  Opposition candidates are reportedly meeting 
November 20 to decide how to react to (read: take advantage of) 
General Fidy's actions.  From a security standpoint, Post assesses 
little has changed, but the election campaign has certainly become 
even more complex.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶11.  Text of Statement by the GOM 
--------------------------------------- 
 
STATEMENT BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MADAGASCAR 
 
For the sake of transparency, the Government of Madagascar has the 
duty of providing information to its citizens on the recent events 
taking place in the country, particularly in the capital. 
 
Since the decision made during the May 9, 2006 Cabinet Meeting, 
related to the presidential election, certain political groups 
constantly planned actions pertaining to disinformation and 
perturbation in order to prevent the said election at all costs. 
 
Such irresponsible outbursts can only harm national unity. 
 
What happened on November 17, 2006, further illustrates this fact: 
 
Some handouts were distributed throughout the city, indicating that 
General Randrianafidisoa had taken power; 
 
After a failed attempt to take the Ministry of National Defense, 
General Randrianafidisoa forced his way into the Ivato Air Force 
Base; 
 
He seized the weapons and ammunitions at the base, and took some 
officials as hostages; 
 
 
ANTANANARI 00001304  003 OF 003 
 
 
This led to exchanges of fire, during which a military officer was 
shot dead by assailants. 
 
In the face of such divisive actions and the different rumors 
spreading, the Government of Madagascar is taking care of its 
responsibilities and calls on the population to remain calm, but 
also to show caution and wisdom. 
 
Let us remain one and show solidarity against these actions of 
insurrection, so that we can protect our national sovereignty and 
democracy. 
 
That is the only way to guarantee freedom and transparency during 
the December 3 presidential elections, which is meant to be a model 
in Africa. 
 
Antananarivo, November 19, 2006. 
 
The Minister of Telecommunications, 
Posts and Communication 
 
//signature// 
Bruno Ramaroson ANDRIATAVISON 
 
END TEXT. 
 
MCGEE