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OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1269/01 3131356
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 091356Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3845
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0718
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORPORATION
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 ANTANANARIVO 001269 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
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DEPT FOR AF/E, AF/FO, INR/AA, AND DRL 
PARIS FOR D'ELIA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EAID PINR MA
SUBJECT: PRE-CAMPAIGN RHETORIC HEATS UP IN MADAGASCAR 
 
REF:  A) ANTANANARIVO 1261 
 
       B) ANTANANARIVO 1186 
 
ANTANANARI 00001269  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU)  SUMMARY:  With three days to go before the official 
presidential campaign season kicks off November 12, Ambassador McGee 
has individually met 11 of the 14 candidates. The pre-election 
rhetoric is heating up among the presidential hopefuls but, with a 
few notable exceptions, most have failed to offer a concrete vision 
for the future. Rather, their discourse remains focused on the 
perceived past and present transgressions of the current government, 
as well as flaws in the electoral process.  In what comes off 
sounding like coordinated talking points, several opposition 
candidates have emphasized that it is the international donors' duty 
to ensure a smooth election process (ref A). Further, they assert 
the international community will be responsible for the potentially 
violent crisis they claim is sure to ensue if President Ravalomanana 
is reelected. Government of Madagascar (GOM) officials have 
responded to such criticism by encouraging politicians and voters to 
participate in election preparations, while laying the groundwork 
for the upcoming campaign season from a political and security 
standpoint.  At present, few candidates have the sophistication or 
national standing to give President Ravalomanana a run for his 
money. END SUMMARY. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
IT ALL GOES BACK TO 2002 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (SBU)  The root of most candidates' malcontent lies in the 2002 
political crisis between then incumbent President Didier Ratsiraka 
and Marc Ravalomanana. After the nation teetered at the brink of 
civil war for some months, the High Constitutional Court ultimately 
ruled that Ravalomanana had won the majority of the popular vote in 
the first round of elections, making him the legal President of 
Madagascar. Opposition parties have since called for national 
reconciliation and amnesty for their supporters imprisoned for 
committing acts of violence in the 2002 crisis and for those who 
fled into exile.  They insist amnesty is a prerequisite to restore 
peaceful relations between Malagasy living on the coast ("Cotier") 
and the historically dominant ethnic group from the highlands 
("Merina"). However, throughout his tenure, President Ravalomanana 
has largely ignored political reform in favor of economic 
development -- the repercussions of which are becoming evident in 
the run-up to the presidential election. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
A CASE OF SOUR GRAPES 
- - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3. (U)  With unofficial pre-season campaigning well underway, the 14 
presidential candidates are jockeying for position. With the 
exception of four candidates--President Ravalomanana, Roindefo 
Monja, Elia Ravelomanantsoa, and Pastor Jules Randrianjoary -- most 
of the hopefuls have failed to offer a platform for the future (ref 
B). Rather, their discourse remains focused on perceived government 
transgressions of the past and present, as well as alleged flaws in 
the electoral process.  The general tenor of opposition candidate 
complaints is that, without the implementation of the following 
reforms, these elections will not be free and fair:  a blanket 
amnesty for those arrested in the 2002 political crisis (especially 
former President Ratsiraka and former Vice Prime Minister Pierrot 
Rajaonarivelo); the adoption of a single ballot; changes to the 
electoral code; the distribution of identity cards (a prerequisite 
for registered voters) to the over one million Malagasy who lack 
them; an independent national electoral commission; and laws 
regulating political party activities. Claiming the December 3 
election date is unconstitutional, 11 candidates continue to demand 
the election be postponed, the president resign, and a transitional 
government be established.  Recognizing these requests are likely to 
go nowhere, candidates are gearing up for the start of the official 
campaign season November 12. 
 
¶4. (SBU)  Some hopefuls have criticized the GOM for failing to 
initiate dialogue with opposition candidates and for not undertaking 
requested electoral reforms, despite calls from opposition parties, 
civil society groups and the international community.  The GOM's 
decision to eschew the single ballot for the traditional multiple 
ballot system has already opened the door to accusations of fraud 
and corruption, particularly from those candidates who cannot fund 
the printing or distribution of the over seven million ballots 
needed for their candidacy.  At the same time, there have been 
reports that private money is pouring in from Paris to bolster 
certain candidates and buy votes in this easily-manipulated system. 
French Ambassador Le Roy privately reassured Ambassador McGee that, 
while it is possible Malagasy expatriates in Paris and their French 
 
ANTANANARI 00001269  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
businesses may be supporting the campaigns, there is not a drop of 
money in French government support for specific candidates. 
 
¶5. (U)  A number of candidates accuse government officials of other 
forms of fraud. One candidate alleged that school teachers in 
Fianarantsoa were being driven to TIM (President Ravalomanana's 
political party) meetings in government vehicles. Candidates also 
complain of unequal media coverage.  The president undoubtedly 
enjoys an advantage as the private owner of the MBS radio and 
television networks with nationwide coverage.  The National 
Electoral Council (CNE) announced the equal partition of free public 
airtime to which each candidate is entitled starting on November 12: 
 five minutes for radio and five minutes for television every other 
day.  Most candidates have also mentioned the logistical hurdles and 
the alleged lack of accuracy in the GOM's efforts to create 
Madagascar's first electronic voter registration lists as obstacles 
to the conduct of fair and transparent elections. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
THE POTENTIAL FOR CONFLICT? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6. (U)  Several opposition candidates--particularly Manandafy 
Rakotonirina and Pety Rakotoniaina--emphasize it is the 
international donors' duty to ensure a smooth election process. 
Believing the political conditions that precipitated the election 
crisis in 2001 are largely still in place, these candidates assert 
that Madagascar is on the cusp of a potentially violent conflict -- 
in the words of Rakotoniaina, "there will be blood."  They assert 
the international community will be directly responsible for the 
potentially violent crisis they claim is sure to ensue if President 
Ravalomanana is reelected.  Four weeks before a single vote has been 
cast, a handful of candidates and their followers have already 
deemed a Ravalomanana victory as an automatic catalyst for crisis. 
In response to this sense of unrest, the President has held a number 
of meetings of top security officials in preparation for the 
upcoming elections. 
 
¶7. (SBU)  Candidates have also been drawing political parallels 
between Madagascar's current situation and that of Cote d'Ivoire and 
Rwanda to convince the international donors of the need to pressure 
the GOM for reforms -- comparisons the international community have 
quickly rejected.  A small number of candidates -- encouraged by 
exiled political leader Pierrot Rajaonarivelo from Paris -- continue 
to play on the historical tension between the Cotier and the Merina 
as a lightning rod of discontent against the current Merina 
President and his administration. 
 
- - - - - - 
GOM EFFORTS 
- - - - - - 
 
¶8. (SBU)  With significant donor assistance, the GOM is making slow 
and steady progress on election preparations. Madagascar's first 
ever electronic voter registration lists are heading into the second 
stage of revision; the CNE is registering and training approximately 
3,000 domestic election observers for deployment around the country; 
the Ministry of Interior and CNE are working with the United Nations 
Development Program (UNDP) and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) 
to prepare public education campaigns for voters; and tamper-proof 
ballot boxes are being installed in over 17,000 polling stations. 
However, international donors have privately expressed concerns that 
election preparations are not progressing as quickly or effectively 
as hoped.  While we are seeing steady progress in the verification 
of the electronic voter registration lists in urban areas and more 
affluent provinces, there are also consistent reports the 
verification process is struggling in more remote regions plagued 
with poor communication infrastructure.  With less than a month 
until election day, certain elements of the public awareness and 
voter education campaigns have not yet been launched.  Such problems 
and delays are consistently pointed out by opposition candidates to 
argue the government is deliberately dragging its feet in executing 
the logistics for transparent elections.  Much of this perception of 
government inertia can be explained by legitimate capacity problems; 
however, on certain issues - such as the use of a single ballot for 
all candidates - the GOM appears to have deliberately passed on the 
chance to hold a more transparent election. 
 
- - - - 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶9. (SBU)  Ravalomanana's tenure has been marked by significant 
economic reforms, but his failure to implement political reforms 
over the past four years -- specifically with regard to the 
 
ANTANANARI 00001269  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
electoral framework -- has opened the government to predictable 
criticism in the run-up to the election.  Acknowledging the need for 
further reforms in the future, Ambassador McGee encouraged 
candidates to make these elections as free, fair, transparent and 
peaceful as possible as a base to further improve future elections. 
A majority of the 11 presidential candidates who met with Ambassador 
McGee claim to seek better living standards for the Malagasy people, 
and all expressed a willingness to work with the United States if 
elected. In the intensely personal politics of Madagascar, a small 
number of opposition candidates appear determined to create some 
degree of trouble in the upcoming elections, if only to embarrass 
President Ravalomanana on the international stage. Their degree of 
success in this effort may well depend on how his administration and 
security services react - or overreact - to these provocations.  END 
COMMENT.