VZCZCXRO2339
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHVB #1307/01 3001204
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271204Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHHE/AMEMBASSY HELSINKI 0089
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6850
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 0563

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 001307 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
HELSINKI FOR SCHLAEFER/PISHKO - PLEASE PASS TO AMB WISNER 
DEPT FOR EUR DICARLO; EUR/SCE HOH, BALIAN, CARCANI 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UN UNMIK YI EU HR REGIONAL ISSUES
SUBJECT: AMB WISNER IN ZAGREB -- ENGAGING CROATIANS ON 
KOSOVO 
 
REF: ZAGREB 1110 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: Ambassador Wisner's first visit 
to Zagreb is well timed, coming just days after President 
Bush's White House acknowledgement of Croatia's leadership 
role in regional stability during his meeting with PM Ivo 
Sanader.  In addition, MP Milorad Pupovac, a leading 
representative of the Serbian community in Croatia, has just 
returned from a successful week in Kosovo, where he has been 
engaged by the OSCE to help politically organize the Serbs of 
Kosovo.  As a result, Ambassador Wisner is likely to find 
receptive audiences when he meets October 30 with senior GoC 
officials Pupovac, and President Mesic's top foreign policy 
advisor. 
 
¶2. While Pupovac is playing a critical role within the Serb 
community, planning the first Serbian People's Congress for 
December, the GoC can play a large role in promoting regional 
acceptance of Kosovo's eventual final status.    PM Sanader's 
media comments that the Serbian government must have a voice 
in determining Kosovo's final status are widely viewed as 
bilateral olive branches rather than opposition to a final 
status without Belgrade's consensus.  Already assisting the 
GoS on its Euro-Atlantic integration path in such areas as 
cooperation with the Hague Tribunal, Sanader and his 
government can help Serbia see that the future offers more 
than the past.  Croatia already provides nine police officers 
to UNMIK and could be asked to make additional contributions 
to current and future international missions.  END SUMMARY 
AND COMMENT. 
 
GOVERNMENT ENTHUSIASM, FEAR OF PRECEDENT 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. The GoC welcomes the opportunity to engage on Kosovo, both 
to foster the stability that is key to its tourist-dependent 
economy and to demonstrate its regional leadership 
capabilities to the international community.  Sanader is 
interested in proving his government's maturity not only to 
NATO and the EU, but also to the UN, where it is seeking a 
non-permanent seat on the UNSC. 
 
¶4. President Mesic is equally enthusiastic to engage, having 
just completed an official visit to Macedonia where he met on 
the margins with Kosovo PM Agim Ceku.  Mesic has played a key 
role in normalization of relations with Belgrade, and his 
relationship with Serbian President Boris Tadic could enable 
him to also play a useful role in calming Serbia's reactions 
to Kosovo's final status. 
 
¶5. Croatia's one fear regarding Kosovo's future is that 
Republika Srpska could use an eventual decision on 
independence as a precedent to push for a destabilizing 
referendum on its own independence.  In his meetings with 
Croatians, Ambassador Wisner could usefully emphasize USG 
views why Kosovo will not set a precedent. 
 
CROATIAN SERB LEADERSHIP IN ORGANIZING KOSOVO SERBS 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶6. For the past five months, MP Pupovac has been visiting 
every Serb enclave in Kosovo as an OSCE consultant and 
encouraging the community to participate in Kosovo's 
political future.  Pupovac succeeded last week in creating a 
33-member elected organizing committee for an All-Serb 
Congress scheduled in December.  The Congress, according to 
Pupovac, will include representation from governments and 
NGOs from more than 132 communities and the strongest refugee 
association. 
 
¶7. In an October 26 discussion with PolOff, Pupovac said he 
thinks Kosovo's Serbs are ready to take responsibility for 
themselves and they understand that Kosovo will be a 
"different" entity in the future.  But he called on the USG 
and the international community to send strong messages to 
the Kosovar Albanian that they must compromise and accept the 
Serbs and equals.  "If Kosovo is lost for Belgrade," he said, 
"it does not mean it is lost for the Serbs in Kosovo.  Kosovo 
must be both Albanian and Serbian."  He was optimistic that 
the December All-Serb Congress could help define a realistic 
vision for the Serbian community in Kosovo's future. 
 
POSSIBLE GoC CONTRIBUTIONS TO UNMIK AND EU FOLLOW-ON 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
¶8. In August, the GoC expanded its contribution to UNMIK from 
 
ZAGREB 00001307  002 OF 002 
 
 
three to nine police officers.  Croatia has also had great 
success in military policing missions in Afghanistan.  It 
would be reasonable for Ambassador Wisner to encourage GoC 
leaders to approach the EU to explore how Croatia can best 
contribute to future law enforcement missions in Kosovo. 
BRADTKE