VZCZCXRO0049
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHVB #1247/01 2890840
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 160840Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6789
INFO RUEHVJ/AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO PRIORITY 0184
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ZAGREB 001247 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR DICARLO, EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV BK HR REGIONAL ISSUES
SUBJECT: CROATS WELCOME DIALOGUE WITH US ON BOSNIAN ISSUES 
 
Classified By: Political Officer Tom Selinger for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d) 
. 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: During an October 9-10 visit to 
Zagreb, US Ambassador to BiH McElhaney updated top officials 
on USG views regarding BiH's future.  He also called on 
Croatian political leaders to help encourage Bosnian Croats 
to support future constitutional reform efforts.  The GoC, 
the Office of the President, and various political parties 
all reacted positively and agreed that BiH was not 
sustainable under its current structure. 
 
¶2. (C) After years of our warnings to stay out of BiH 
politics due to the expansionist views of the wartime 
government, a USG proposal for engagement may have initially 
given Croatian politicians pause.  However, during the 
Ambassador's visit, all appeared to understand the 
constructive role they could now play in making BiH a viable 
neighbor and sustainable home to Bosnian Croats.  END SUMMARY 
AND COMMENT. 
 
GoC GOAL: HELP BOSNIAN CROATS SEE FUTURE WITHIN BiH 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶3. (C) MFA State Secretary Hidajet Biscevic noted the GoC's 
concern over the future of BiH and welcomed Ambassador 
McElhaney's call for a closer dialogue with the USG on 
Zagreb's role there.  According to Biscevic, if Bosnian 
Croats see no future in BiH they will come to Croatia, 
straining Croatia's capacity to absorb migrants and throwing 
the already delicate ethnic dynamics in BiH out of balance. 
 
¶4. (C) Biscevic said the GoC supports constitutional reform 
in BiH and sees no need for a third entity.  He outlined five 
key elements of the policy of PM Ivo Sanader and his 
government toward BiH: 
- Supporting the territorial integrity of BiH, 
- Finding a new internal architecture for BiH through 
constitutional arrangements that is both democratic and 
protects all constituent peoples, 
- Firmly supporting a continued role in BiH for the 
international community (the Office of the High 
Representative should not go away too soon), 
- Engaging the Catholic Church as unifying force among 
Bosnian Croats (PM Sanader sees this as even more important 
now that political parties are split), and 
- Moving BiH's efforts to enter a Stabilization and 
Association Agreement with the EU forward (Sanader intends to 
raise this issue in Washington when he visits the week of 
October 16). 
 
PRESIDENT'S ADVISOR: KOMSIC ELECTION MAY PROVE POSITIVE 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶5. (C) Budimir Loncar, President Stjepan Mesic's special 
advisor on international relations, said that while the 
election of Social Democrat Zeljko Komsic as the Croatian 
member of the BiH tripartite presidency has been 
controversial among Bosnian Croats, it may ultimately be 
positive that he was not the candidate of any single Croat 
faction.  Loncar called Komsic a courageous man of principle 
and said President Mesic knows him well.  Even PM Sanader, 
who supported HDZ 1990 leader Bozo Ljubic, has reacted 
relatively positively to Komsic's election, according to 
Loncar.  At Ambassador McElhaney's suggestion, Loncar agreed 
to advise President Mesic to invite Komsic to Zagreb for a 
state visit. 
 
¶6. (C) Loncar suggested that Republika Srpska PM Milorad 
Dodik be encouraged to be more active federally -- even to 
become BiH PM.  The international community should ignore his 
rhetoric about RS independence, according to Loncar, and try 
to involve him in common projects that will lead to EU 
integration.  In an upcoming visit to Belgrade, Mesic will 
ask Serbian President Boris Tadic to encourage Dodik to be 
active in Sarajevo. 
 
¶7. (C) Ambassador McElhaney expressed skepticism that Dodik 
would take the PM job in Sarajevo or even put a strong person 
there, as the failure of constitutional reforms has left that 
position with too little power.  Loncar replied that it is 
critical that the new PM is a Serb who supports 
constitutional amendments.  As the Croat community is next in 
line for the Presidency, Loncar said the Foreign Minister 
should be a Bosniak, such as Zlatko Dizdarevic, former BiH 
ambassador in Zagreb. 
 
OPPOSITION PARTIES: NO MORE POLITICAL GAMES WITH BIH CROATS 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 
ZAGREB 00001247  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶8. (C) Croatian People's Party (HNS) President Vesna Pusic 
told Ambassador McElhaney that Bosnian Croats no longer trust 
political parties, as they have been used as pawns both in 
BiH and in Croatia.  She said parties other than the Croatian 
Democratic Union (HDZ) will have to win their trust with 
policies that protect their interests but also lead to EU 
integration. 
 
¶9. (C) Social Democratic Party (SDP) foreign policy advisor 
Zoran Milanovic said his party hesitated before it supported 
the campaign of its sister party in BiH to elect Komsic, but 
ultimately got involved and intends to help present him to 
the Croatian public as a legitimate representative of the 
Bosnian Croat community.  Komsic, who is not yet well known 
within Croatia, will appear on a popular weekend television 
talk show in Zagreb on October 15. 
 
¶10. (C) Milanovic noted that Bosnians with Croatian 
citizenship can vote in Croatian parliamentary elections, 
expected in November 2007, and traditionally lean heavily in 
favor of the HDZ.  As a result, the SDP must be careful not 
to become too active in BiH or it risks galvanizing HDZ 
supporters there. 
 
¶11. (C) Former Croatian Ambassador to the UN Ivan Simonovic 
stressed that European integration should be the key driver 
of stability in BiH and is something that Croatian 
politicians could promote.  When the BiH public has a 15-year 
vision of EU membership, which will result in standards that 
protect the rights of all people, they will realize that 
their inter-ethnic disputes are not worth it. 
 
FEARS ABOUT DODIK'S REFERENDUM 
------------------------------ 
 
¶12. (C) In separate meeting requested by Security and 
Intelligence Agency (SOA) head Tomislav Karamarko, the 
intelligence chief expressed pessimism about RS, saying he 
believes Dodik intends to initiate a referendum for RS 
independence in the aftermath of Kosovo final status. 
Karamarko fears this will be seriously destabilizing. 
Ambassador McElhaney noted that the USG has sent a strong 
warning to Dodik not to pursue a referendum.  The 
international community still has considerable pull in BiH, 
the Ambassador reminded, and will not hesitate to use the 
Bonn Powers to prevent a referendum. 
 
¶13. (U) Ambassador McElhaney has cleared this cable. 
DELAWIE