VZCZCXRO0797
RR RUEHDBU
DE RUEHYE #1388/01 2781238
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 051238Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY YEREVAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4081
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YEREVAN 001388 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EUR/CARC 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UK GG RU AZ AM
SUBJECT: GUAM ALLIES GANG UP ON RUSSIA DURING THINKTANK 
SEMINAR 
 
 
Classified By: Poloff Masha Herbst for reasons 1.4 (b, d). 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (U) A Russian analyst who spouted anti-Western rhetoric at 
a local thinktank seminar this week in Yerevan found himself 
outnumbered when panelists from Georgia (including a former 
foreign minister), Ukraine and Azerbaijan ganged up on him 
during their speeches and particularly during the 
question-and-answer period.  The analyst had complained that 
Russia was being "forced out" of its traditional "sphere of 
influence."  He also cautioned the South Caucasus countries 
against greater involvement with NATO, and said that the U.S. 
is unequivocally hostile to Russia.  Though the Georgians and 
the Russian traded barbs during the seminar, the September 27 
arrest of GRU officers did not come up.  An Azeri panelist 
took a dim view of the current Nagorno Karabakh negotiation 
efforts and suggested the road to peace led through Europe. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
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RUSSIAN ANALYST: THE WEST IS A THREAT 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Vyacheslav Igrunov, the director of the Institute for 
Humanities and Political Studies in Moscow, wasted no time in 
disabusing seminar participants of the notion that Russia 
could be a team player in the South Caucasus.  He said that, 
while the idea that Russia, Turkey, the U.S. and the EU could 
work together in the region was a pleasant one, "in reality, 
it is unfortunately quite different."  Igrunov said the U.S. 
obviously considered Russia an enemy.  He accused the U.S. of 
trying to force Russia out of the former Soviet space.  "The 
proof is Vice President Cheney's statement in Vilnius, which 
categorized Russia with Syria and Iran.  No further proof is 
needed," Igrunov said.  He accused the U.S. of orchestrating 
and paying for the Orange and Rose Revolutions.  Igrunov then 
launched into a diatribe about the war in Iraq, predicting 
that Iraq would become a "terrorism greenhouse," and saying 
the "Muslim world won't forgive the U.S. if the U.S. will not 
learn lessons from Iraq ... and goes to war in Iran." 
 
¶3. (U) Though he avoided saying outright that the countries 
of the South Caucasus should not join NATO, Igrunov tried to 
build a strong case against NATO involvement in the region. 
He said NATO action in the South Caucasus might be 
"irreversible," and suggested that Georgia would be used as a 
launching site for war in Iran.  He said Russia feared NATO 
would turn against it.  Throughout Igrunov's speech, 
panelists from Georgia and Ukraine rolled their eyes at one 
another and whispered. 
 
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FORMER GEORGIAN FM: THE WEST SHOULD BE MORE ACTIVE HERE 
--------------------------------------------- ---------- 
 
¶4. (U) Former Georgian Foreign Minister Irakli Menagarishvili 
spoke next, giving a measured presentation during which he 
argued that the West must become more involved in regional 
politics.  He said the EU and NATO should "continuously" keep 
the South Caucasus on their radars, but also stressed that 
all stakeholders should be involved -- including Russia.  He 
looked and sounded a bit like a school teacher -- perhaps on 
purpose, and the better to follow Igrunov's whiny tirade -- 
when he peered over his glasses at the audience and said, 
"I'm sure Russia can and should play a constructive, positive 
role."  Menagarishvili refrained from provoking Igrunov until 
right before the end of his presentation, when he noted 
pointedly that the concept of spheres of influence was 
outdated and should be abandoned. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
AZERI SCHOLAR: NK TALKS WILL FAIL WITHOUT EU INTEGRATION 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶5. (C) Leila Alieva, head of the Azeri Center for National 
and International Studies, took a dim view of the current NK 
settlement process.  She said domestic reform in both Armenia 
and Azerbaijan was a prerequisite for peace.  "The resolution 
attempts are predetermined to fail, because when you have two 
parties equally convinced of the correctness of their views, 
and both parties can bring equal evidence, this is a 
deadlock," Alieva said.  She said the EU should promote 
reform in Armenia and Azerbaijan and "bring them closer to 
Europe."  Alieva also chastised Russia for its heavy hand in 
the region, and said it should wait to act until it can offer 
a better alternative to Western integration and development. 
(NOTE: Alieva has worked with the Spectrum Center in the 
 
YEREVAN 00001388  002 OF 002 
 
 
past, but her presence at the seminar was still remarkable. 
Spectrum Center Director Gayane Novikova said the 
organization had worked out an agreement by which border 
guards would not stamp Alieva's passport, and that the Center 
had provided her with a security detail.  END NOTE.) 
 
-------------------------------- 
PANELISTS GANG UP ON THE RUSSIAN 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Almost all the questions posed during the 
question-and-answer period were for Igrunov.  Ukrainian 
panelist Mykhailo Samas cited Russia's December 2005 gas 
shutdown, and said, "Who is forcing Russia from Ukraine and 
Georgia, if not Russia itself?"  Other panelists piled on to 
the same question.  Shalva Pichkhadze, chairman of "Georgia 
for NATO" and a former advisor to Eduard Shevardnadze, asked 
what, exactly, Russia would consider to be "fair play." 
Igrunov ignored the last question.  He said the U.S. had 
coerced Ukraine not to join the Unified Economic Space by 
threatening isolation from the West, and accused Washington 
and Brussels of pressuring Moldova to back away from Russia's 
federalization plan the day after the Moldovan government 
agreed to it.  Igrunov then turned his attention to GUAM, 
complaining that "The alliance was forged without inviting 
Russia.  Authoritarian regimes were invited.  It was a double 
standard." 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶7. (C) The attitude of the panelists towards each other was a 
small-scale reflection of large-scale reality.  Ukraine and 
Georgia vocally contradicted Russia's claims, Azerbaijan 
threw in a barb here and there, and Armenia was silent.  The 
question is: How much longer will Armenia be silent? 
Armenian suffering is a continuing side effect of tension 
between Russia and Georgia, and the tension is only 
increasing.  But given Russian dominance of the Armenian 
energy sector, growing economic ties between the two 
countries and Russian troops guarding Armenia's southern 
border, speaking out against Russia remains a risky 
proposition. 
GODFREY