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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNO #0615/01 2910721
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 180721Z OCT 06
FM USMISSION USNATO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0123
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/USNMR SHAPE BE PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USDELMC BRUSSELS BE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L USNATO 000615 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/RPM, EUR/SCE, PM 
OSD FOR USDP -- WINTERNITZ AND GRAFF 
NSC FOR AINSLEY 
JOINT STAFF FOR J-5/EUROPE AND NATO POLICY -- FOSTER 
USEUCOM FOR ECJ-5/E 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016 
TAGS: NATO PREL MOPS MARR HR
SUBJECT: NATO ALLIES ENCOURAGE CROATIA IN MEMBERSHIP DRIVE, 
WORRY ABOUT LOW PUBLIC SUPPORT 
 
REF: SECSTATE 169370 
 
Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Richard Olson for reasons 1.4 (b 
) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY.  On October 13, Croatia presented its 
Annual National Plan (ANP) outlining its reform goals for the 
coming year.  The Croatian delegation expressed its hope that 
Croatia would receive an encouraging message on its 
membership prospects out of the November NATO Summit and a 
membership invitation in 2008.  Many Allies expressed support 
for Zagreb's aspirations for NATO membership, but expressed 
concern about the low level of public support for NATO. 
Allies urged Croatia to implement the communications plan 
included in its ANP to educate Croatians about NATO and 
increase public support.  Allies also asked about the slow 
pace of refugee returns and questioned Croatia's decision to 
acquire fighter aircraft.  The U.S. praised Croatia's 
increasing contributions to international peacekeeping as 
well as its efforts to advance political, economic, 
rule-of-law and defense reforms, which it said must be 
accompanied by stronger popular support for NATO.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
CROATIA HIGHLIGHTS REFORM PROGRESS, AFGHANISTAN CONTRIBUTION 
 
¶2.  (C)  In an October 13 meeting with NATO's Senior 
Political Committee, Croatia presented its 2006-2007 ANP 
outlining Croatia's reform goals for the upcoming year under 
NATO's Membership Action Plan (MAP).  Assistant Foreign 
Minister Pjer Simunovic said Croatia had made considerable 
progress in all areas of its reform program during the 
previous year as part of both its EU and NATO membership 
campaigns. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Simunovic highlighted Croatia's contributions to 
NATO operations and stated that Croatia had made a long-term 
commitment to ISAF in Afghanistan.  He noted that Croatia had 
tripled its ISAF contribution from 50 to 150 soldiers and 
placed no caveats on where they could be deployed. Croatia 
was considering offering to serve as a lead country in a PRT. 
 Croatia was also examining how it could provide security 
assistance to Iraq and would be making an offer to NATO in 
this regard. 
 
LOOKING FOR A MEMBERSHIP TIMELINE 
 
¶4.  (C)  Simunovic said Croatia felt it deserved a strong and 
encouraging message about its membership prospects from the 
November NATO Summit in Latvia and thought it was realistic 
that Croatia receive an invitation in 2008.  He noted that 
public support for EU membership doubled "overnight" once the 
EU signed a Stabilization and Association Agreement with 
Croatia and he expected a similar effect if NATO would 
indicate a timeline for Croatia to join the Alliance. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Croatian Ambassador to NATO Bozinovic added that the 
Riga communique would be important for Croatian public 
attitudes toward NATO.  He said there had been negative 
reaction in the Croatian media when Croatia was not invited 
to the September 28-29 NATO Defense Ministerial in Slovenia 
where Afghanistan was discussed, even though Croatian 
soldiers are serving in Kandahar.  He anticipated a similarly 
negative reaction if Croatian officials were not invited to 
the Summit in Latvia.  While acknowledging that the Croatian 
government had to address the low public opinion of NATO, the 
Alliance's support was also needed in the form of a cleQQR>QRwhich was the first military planning document with a 
10-year timeline for defense reforms.  Pokaz noted that the 
LTDP, which had been approved by Parliament, now needed to be 
implemented.  Allies commended Croatia's LTDP with The 
Netherlands stressing that execution would be challenging. 
Pokaz stated the LTDP used a realistic approach and is 
designed to prevent the Croatian Armed Forces from becoming 
overextended.  The LTDP included contingency plans and 
prioritized projects, which allowed the plan to be adjusted 
if budget targets are not met.  Pokaz frankly stated that it 
would be a continuos struggle to win full funding every year 
for the LTDP. 
 
¶10.  (C)  France, Germany, Romania, Germany, Czech Republic, 
and the US commented on Croatia's plans to identify a new 
multi-purpose combat aircraft as a replacement for its 
existing MIG-21 aircraft.  The U.S., UK, and The Netherlands 
questioned whether the purchase was a wise use of scarce 
defense funds while France said they were aware Croatia would 
need to keep an Air Force to police its skies.  Pokaz noted 
that Croatia intended to acquire fighter assets to perform an 
Air Policing mission since their MIG-21s would be 
de-commissioned by 2011.  The MOD, he said, would make a 
decision on the type and number of aircraft in 2007. 
 
¶11.  (C)  As a next step in the ANP process, NATO 
International Staff will visit Croatia in February to begin 
their assessment of progress implementing this year's ANP. 
NULAND 
 
Allies.  Both Hungary and Germany thanked the delegation for 
the Croatian Armed Force's (CAF) participation in both of 
their respective PRTs in Afghanistan.  Slovenia stated that 
Croatia had now become a security provider in its own right. 
 
QUESTIONS RAISED ABOUT PUBLIC SUPPORT, RETURNS 
 
¶7.  (C)  Simunovic noted that this year's ANP included a 
Communications Management Strategy for Croatia's Accession to 
NATO, which called for an analytical study of public 
attitudes toward NATO followed by an action plan for creating 
long-term, sustainable support for NATO among Croatians. 
Many Allies praised Croatia for its communications strategy, 
but stressed that it must be implemented.  The U.S. and UK 
emphasized the need for senior officials to engage in the 
public information campaign about NATO, and the Croatian 
delegation gave assurances that senior leadership would be 
involved.  Germany stressed the need to tailor public 
information message to specific target groups.  Asked about 
the main messages of the campaign, Simunovic said it would 
stress that NATO membership is about joining a community of 
values that Croatia shares, providing security to prevent 
Croatia's territorial integrity from being threatened again, 
and integrating with the most advanced economies of the West. 
 
 
¶8.  (C)  Italy, U.S., UK, and The Netherlands raised concerns 
about refugee returns and Simunovic said Croatia expected to 
meet the goals in the Sarajevo Declaration for returns by the 
end of the year.  Slovenia stressed the need for Croatia to 
respect international agreements and criticized the renaming 
of disputed areas with Croatian names (a reference to their 
border disputes). 
 
DEFENSE PLAN PRAISED, FIGHTERS QUESTIONED 
 
¶9.  (C)  Assistant Defense Minister Igor Pokaz described 
Croatia's Long Term Development Plan (LTDP) for its Armed 
Forces, which was the first military planning document with a 
10-year timeline for defense reforms.  Pokaz noted that the 
LTDP, which had been approved by Parliament, now needed to be 
implemented.  Allies commended Croatia's LTDP with The 
Netherlands stressing that execution would be challenging. 
Pokaz stated the LTDP used a realistic approach and is 
designed to prevent the Croatian Armed Forces from becoming 
overextended.  The LTDP included contingency plans and 
prioritized projects, which allowed the plan to be adjusted 
if budget targets are not met.  Pokaz frankly stated that it 
would be a continuos struggle to win full funding every year 
for the LTDP. 
 
¶10.  (C)  France, Germany, Romania, Germany, Czech Republic, 
and the US commented on Croatia's plans to identify a new 
multi-purpose combat aircraft as a replacement for its 
existing MIG-21 aircraft.  The U.S., UK, and The Netherlands 
questioned whether the purchase was a wise use of scarce 
defense funds while France said they were aware Croatia would 
need to keep an Air Force to police its skies.  Pokaz noted 
that Croatia intended to acquire fighter assets to perform an 
Air Policing mission since their MIG-21s would be 
de-commissioned by 2011.  The MOD, he said, would make a 
decision on the type and number of aircraft in 2007. 
 
¶11.  (C)  As a next step in the ANP process, NATO 
International Staff will visit Croatia in February to begin 
their assessment of progress implementing this year's ANP. 
NULAND