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PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHUM #0803/01 3000853
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 270853Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY ULAANBAATAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0504
INFO RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 2280
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RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5292

UNCLAS ULAANBAATAR 000803 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR MG
SUBJECT: Government Wins Parliamentary Confidence Vote, But Cracks 
Appear 
 
 
Sensitive But Unclassified -- Not for Internet Distribution. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  By a 46-22 vote, on October 26 the government 
easily turned defeated a no confidence motion pushed by the 
opposition Democratic Party.  However, the opposition succeeded in 
its real aim: winning two days of great publicity for its criticisms 
of the government.  A bonus for the opposition was the spectacle of 
dissension within the MPRP, including closing remarks by Speaker 
Nyamdorj which were remarkably critical of the government his party 
leads.  The debate will make it even harder for the Enkhbold 
government to improve on dismal public approval ratings.  Three 
minor party ministers drew the most fire in Parliament -- including 
from the Speaker -- doing nothing to end speculation the Prime 
Minister may jettison them down the road.  End summary. 
 
Government Wins Confidence Vote 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On October 26, the government easily turned aside a no 
confidence motion put forward by the opposition Democratic Party. 
Under the constitution, the parliament must debate a no confidence 
motion which is put forward by at least one quarter of MPs, or at 
least 19 out of the 76 MPs.  In July, the opposition Democratic 
Party announced plans to have its 24 MPs table a no confidence 
motion soon after the Fall session of parliament began in October. 
The government margin of 46-22 in the October 26 vote was in line 
with its expected support in State Great Hural.  Just over half of 
MPs, are from the MPRP, while another nine belong to four smaller 
parties that have joined in the MPRP-led "Government of National 
Unity." 
 
But the 'Reality Show' Was the Whole Point 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The two full days of parliamentary debate on the no 
confidence motion was broadcast live on television and radio.  The 
anecdotal evidence is that large numbers of Mongolians tuned in to 
the parliamentary debate, as they did in January when the MPRP 
brought down the previous coalition government.  While defeat in the 
actual vote was always certain, this highly-publicized 'reality 
show' -- as many MPs termed the session -- was the whole purpose of 
the exercise by the opposition party.  For two days, the Democratic 
Party had the public eye on their allegations of corruption and 
mismanagement against the government.  On October 27, a Democratic 
Party MP told emboffs and visiting EAP/CM desk officer that the 
result had exceeded his party's hopes. 
 
Cracks Appear 
------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) One reason for this verdict was the spectacle of 
dissension within the MPRP during the debate (although all MPRP MPs 
duly raised their hands in support of the government).  The most 
obvious critic was Speaker Nyamdorj, who at one point contradicted 
the Prime Minister to agree with the opposition statement that the 
new government had failed to submit its plan of work, as required by 
the Constitution.  Nyamdorj saved his harshest words for a 
remarkable closing speech just after the vote.  Nyamdorj said he 
regretted the fact that he had observed no sign during the debate 
the government could listen and learn from criticism.  It was no 
secret, the Speaker said, that the Cabinet lacks discipline, with 
 
SIPDIS 
ministers publicly disagreeing with government positions.  Moreover, 
there were examples of ministers using their position to benefit 
their private interests.  The government, he said, had an obligation 
to draw conclusions about the members of the Cabinet and to end this 
chaotic situation.  Nyamdorj then made clear that his comments were 
most focused on three minor party Cabinet ministers:  Health 
Minister Gundalai; Minister for Industry and Trade Jargalsaikhan; 
and Minister for Energy and Fuels Erdenebat. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Before debate began on October 26, President Enkhbayar 
(the MPRP leader and Speaker until he took his new office in June 
2005) also suggested in his remarks that there might be a need for 
some ministers to be held to account.  During the debate, Gundalai 
and Jargalsaikhan in particular had had to mount a defense not just 
against Democratic Party complaints, but also against the comments 
of MPRP MPs.  MPRP MP Gandi, who was Health Minister in the previous 
government, launched a pointed criticism of Gundalai.  MPRP MP Bud 
commented, "Calling for the dismissal of the government is a 
political ploy.  However, there are things to note.  It is true that 
ministries have been made into private companies." 
 
Debate Will Add to Government's Problems 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) In a few days, Mongolia's one reliable political poll will 
be published.  The parliamentary debate will add to recent events 
which will make it difficult for the MPRP-led government to much 
improve on the dismal 25% approval rating it held in April; while 
 
the MPRP denounced that poll as slanted, MPRP factions openly 
lamented the fact that the party's internal polls showed the same 
result.  The Democratic Party used to good advantage in the 
parliamentary debate the September conviction on corruption charges 
of former Customs chief Kh. Baatar, who was arrested under 
Democratic Party PM Elbegdorj's government in October 2005. 
Baatar's defense in court was that he had kept no money for himself, 
but had given all the money to the MPRP as donations.  An MPRP 
official (to the obvious after-the-fact consternation of the Prime 
Minister) confirmed the party had received donations from Baatar. 
The prosecutor in the case also told the court that Baatar had 
corruptly given an apartment to O. Enkhtuvshin, a Cabinet member 
from the MPRP.  While those allegations have added to public concern 
about the Enkhbold government, the MPRP can take comfort in most 
Mongolians' cynical belief the Democrats are little better on 
corruption. 
 
On to the Budget -- and a Reshuffle? 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Parliament now moves on to the budget, which it should 
adopt by December 1.  With the general election only twenty months 
away, both government and opposition appear determined to win 
popularity by throwing money at the electorate.  During the no 
confidence vote debate, Prime Minister Enkhbold highlighted as major 
achievements for his government sharp increases in civil service 
salaries and social welfare benefits.  The Democrats responded that 
they had suggested these increases, and would have given more if in 
office.  Poor approval ratings may lead the government to add to the 
large increases for next year it has already announced. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) There has also been speculation that the government may 
seek to boost its popularity by jettisoning the problematic Gundalai 
and Jargalsaikhan, perhaps soon after the budget has passed.  The 
fire the two ministers (and sole MPs for their party) drew during 
the no confidence vote will add to this speculation, particularly 
since so many in the MPRP made it clear they also disapproved of the 
ministers.  After a reshuffle, the challenge for PM Enkhbold would 
be to explain why he should not be held responsible for these 
ministers' shortcomings.  If a reshuffle does happen, the challenge 
for the Democrats will be for their MPs to resist any offer by 
Enkhbold to join in a revamped government.  In January, two thirds 
of the Democratic Party MPs publicly defied party orders to ask to 
join in Enkhbold's new government.  However, the MPs spoke up so 
late they were rebuffed in the MPRP's rush to get a new government 
in place before Mongolian New Years.  If Enkhbold succeeded in 
getting Democratic MPs to join a revamped government, the 
ill-disciplined opposition party would be further split -- but, with 
the general election looming ever larger, and Enkhbold's government 
scoring poorly with voters, the attraction of Cabinet posts may have 
diminished since January. 
 
Minton