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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000460 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016 
TAGS: PREL MARR CASC FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI'S CIVIL-MILITARY CRISIS AT A TIPPING POINT? 
 
REF: A. SUVA 444 (AND PREVIOUS) 
     ¶B. USDAO SUVA 180007Z OCT 06 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (S) Fiji President Iloilo is being asked to endorse 
suspension of Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) 
Commander Bainimarama and to name an interim replacement. 
The context is "advanced preparations" for a coup, that could 
take place as early as late this week, according to Fiji's 
Police Commissioner Hughes.  Bainimarama is currently on a 
visit to the MidEast.  A shipment of ammunition arrived in 
Suva last weekend, and Hughes has so far blocked the RFMF 
from receiving it.  RFMF reserves have been ordered to report 
for duty on Nov. 2, purportedly a routine operation.  We 
comment that how Iloilo will act is crucial, but not clear. 
How the RFMF and the Fiji public would react to a coup order 
is similarly not completely knowable.  The Embassy is 
exercising emergency procedures, just in case; and we have 
issued a warden notice for Americans to take care.  We seek 
Washington and PACOM guidance whether an invitation for 
Bainimarama to attend the annual CHODS conference in KL 
should be rescinded.  End summary. 
 
President asked to endorse Bainimarama suspension 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
¶2. (S) According to Fiji Police Commissioner Hughes, Prime 
Minister Qarase has presented Vice President Madraiwiwi an 
order for President Iloilo to endorse that would suspend RFMF 
Commander Bainimarama and install Col. Meli Saubulinayau as 
Acting Commander.  Madraiwiwi is to meet with Iloilo today, 
Tuesday, Oct. 31, to try to convince him to sign.  If Iloilo 
does chop, the leadership changes would be effective 
immediately.  Col. Meli reportedly has agreed to implement 
once the President signs, and he believes he can win over his 
RFMF colleagues. 
 
Reportedly "advanced preparations" for a coup 
--------------------------------------------- 
¶3. (S) Per reftels, Bainimarama has ratcheted up 
civil-military tensions in recent weeks.  Hughes told us 
police informants in the RFMF are certain "advanced 
preparations" are under way for a coup that could take place 
as early as this week.  Nov. 2 is reportedly the sixth 
anniversary of a failed mutiny within the RFMF that followed 
the coup of 2000 and threatened Bainimarama's life.  Nov. 3 
is the opening of Parliament's budget session.  Past Fiji 
coups have been initiated with takeovers of Parliament. 
 
Bainimarama on his way to Iraq 
------------------------------ 
¶4. (S) Bainimarama remains on overseas travel.  He is due to 
enter Iraq from Kuwait on Nov. 2 and is expected back in Fiji 
on Nov. 8.  In the past, he has shown a propensity to want to 
be visibly in charge at key moments, which would suggest any 
RFMF move might not take place until after the 8th.  However, 
the reported advanced preparations by RFMF senior officers 
leave open an earlier scenario. 
 
Police Commissioner makes contingency plans 
------------------------------------------- 
¶5. (S) Hughes told us he has already prepared sealed orders 
to be dispensed throughout the police force if a coup takes 
place and he (Hughes) is displaced.  The Police are not to 
resist the RFMF initially.  That would be futile.  They are 
to hunker down, attempt to maintain basic public order, wait 
for inevitable cracks to form in whatever mechanism 
Bainimarama would install, and then help organize efforts to 
bring Fiji back to constitutional government. 
 
Police v. RFMF on ammo shipment 
------------------------------- 
¶6. (S) Fiji media have reported that Police Commissioner 
Hughes has denied RFMF access to a container load of 
ammunition that arrived at the Suva wharf from Korea last 
weekend.  Hughes said publicly it would be "irresponsible" to 
release the shipment absent assurances from RFMF leadership 
that the ammo would not be used to destabilize the 
government.  Hughes told us he made the call on his own, 
wanting to be able to justify his actions if some future 
accountability review board calls him to testify; but he said 
the Qarase Government has not objected to his stance.  An 
RFMF source informed us that Bainimarama has advised not to 
force the issue as yet.  When an RFMF contingent went to the 
 
SUVA 00000460  002 OF 002 
 
 
wharf with its paperwork Oct. 30, Police declined to release 
the shipment and the RFMF troops left quietly. 
 
Calling in the reserves 
----------------------- 
¶7. (C) The RFMF has publicly announced that all 3000 of its 
territorial (reserve) forces are to march into camps on Nov. 
2 in what is billed as a routine, annual training exercise. 
Such exercises have taken place in the past, the last one 
just a year ago; however, given the current tensions, the 
public sees the timing as ominous. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶8. (S) President Iloilo is "Commander in Chief."  If he takes 
a stand and signs Qarase's documents, RFMF senior officers 
would clearly be acting treasonously if they opposed.  Col. 
Meli is highly respected within the RFMF, so he is a good 
choice as interim replacement.  A key issue in this scenario 
is Iloilo's will.  If Iloilo does not go along, word will 
reach Bainimarama rapidly, and he may well be even more 
determined to act against Qarase. 
 
¶9. (S) How much loyalty Bainimarama can depend on within the 
RFMF is an open question, as is how much enthusiasm there 
would be for a coup in the broader community.  Qarase, an 
ethnic Fijian, won well over 80 percent of the vote among 
ethnic Fijians in last May's elections.  The RFMF is almost 
entirely made up of ethnic Fijians.  It has seemed that a 
large majority of the populace has been enthusiastic about 
the multi-party cabinet that Qarase has engineered.  On the 
other hand, there are significant groupings that believe 
Qarase caters too much to Fijian "nationalists," that allege 
significant corruption, and that disapprove of controversial 
bills before Parliament. 
 
¶10. (SBU) The Embassy has been exercising its emergency 
procedures, just in case.  With CA advice, we revised our 
Consular Information Sheet and issued a warden notice last 
week that highlights increased tensions that could result in 
unrest and that urges American citizens to be careful. 
 
Action query 
------------ 
¶11. (S) Commodore Bainimarama has accepted a PACOM invitation 
to travel to Kuala Lumpur, at USG expense, for the annual 
PACOM CHODS conference, departing Suva Nov. 12.  Given his 
recent anti-democratic activities in Fiji, we request that 
Washington and PACOM consider rescinding that invitation for 
this year.  The Aussies High Commission in Suva indicated 
they favor rescinding.  If the proposed suspension takes 
place or if a coup takes place, the invitation to Bainimarama 
would not be appropriate.  An invitation to the replacement 
would be OK, though the atmosphere in Fiji might make such a 
trip doubtful.  If a stalemate continues, the CHODS trip for 
Bainimarama would send very unfortunate signals to 
pro-democracy elements in Fiji, who need all the 
encouragement we can provide. 
DINGER