VZCZCXRO3594
PP RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0444 2920001
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 190001Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3367
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 1313
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 1102
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0917
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SUVA 000444 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2016 
TAGS: PREL MARR FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI'S CIVILIAN LEADERS MOVE TO RESOLVE 
BAINIMARAMA ISSUE 
 
REF: A. SUVA 425 
 
     ¶B. SUVA 432 
     ¶C. USDAO SUVA 160044Z OCT 06 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D) 
 
Fiji's NSC tells public "all is calm" 
------------------------------------- 
¶1. (U) Fiji Prime Minister Qarase convened a National 
Security Council (NSC) meeting on Oct. 18 to discuss Republic 
of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander Bainimarama's recent 
threat to force the PM to resign in early November if he 
doesn't withdraw controversial bills from Parliament (see ref 
A and previous).  A subsequent Government press release 
reported that PM Qarase later met with President Iloilo and 
Vice President Madraiwiwi and related to them the views of 
Acting RFMF Commander Teleni and Acting Police Commissioner 
Driver, who reportedly told the NSC that all is calm, no need 
to worry. 
 
Beneath the surface: effort to suspend Bainimarama 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶2. (C) We have heard from a reliable source that much more 
took place.  In Qarase's meeting with the President and VP, 
there apparently was agreement for the VP to instruct 
Attorney General Bale to forward a request from the President 
to the Supreme Court for a judgment on just how broad the 
RFMF's powers are under Fiji's 1997 Constitution.  (See ref A 
for discussion.)  Additionally, the three reportedly agreed 
that, after next week's Pacific Islands Forum events in Nadi, 
Home Affairs Minister Vosanibola (the RFMF's line Minister) 
is to lodge a formal complaint with the Fiji Police against 
RFMF Commander Bainimarama.  Vosanibola reportedly is at the 
same time to write to President Iloilo requesting that 
Bainimarama be suspended from his post as Commander, RFMF, 
for the duration of the investigation.  The report we heard 
is not clear whether Iloilo has committed to then issue the 
suspension. 
 
Replacement in the wings 
------------------------ 
¶3. (C) Reportedly, Vosanibola will recommend that Brigadier 
General Iowane Naivalurua, who is about to return from a 
deployment to UNAMI in Iraq, take charge of the RFMF during a 
Bainimarama suspension.  Vosanibola returned from a visit to 
Iraq a few days ago (Ref B).  While there, he reportedly 
discussed this scenario with Naivalurua and received his 
agreement to take the job, if necessary.  Naivalurua has been 
put forward to be Fiji's next Prison Commissioner, but his 
heart is with the Army. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶4. (C) We will seek opportunities to learn more.  The above 
scenario would break with President Iloilo's past reluctance 
to exercise his "commander in chief" powers to attempt to 
rein in Bainimarama.  The scenario, if implemented, would 
force the RFMF's senior leaders to choose: follow an order of 
the President to permit Bainimarama's suspension; or protect 
Bainimarama by attempting to remove PM Qarase.  See Ref C for 
a DATT discussion of how RFMF factions seem aligned.  That 
analysis suggests a key RFMF force commander would side with 
the President; but this is Fiji and nothing ever is certain. 
For the next week, during the Pacific Forum, it appears all 
is intended to be calm on the surface; though one presumes 
Bainimarama (currently in London, then to Rome, the Sinai, 
and Iraq) has sources who will feed him the Government's plan 
in short order.  Whether that might shorten his "three weeks" 
ultimatum for Qarase's resignation remains to be seen. 
Bainimarama currently is scheduled to arrive back in Fiji on 
Nov. 8. 
DINGER