VZCZCXRO6566
PP RUEHPB
DE RUEHSV #0425/01 2842333
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 112333Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY SUVA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3341
INFO RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 1297
RUEHPB/AMEMBASSY PORT MORESBY 0903
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 0007
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON 1085
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RHHJJAA/JICPAC HONOLULU HI
RHHJRAP/USARPAC INTEL FT SHAFTER HI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SUVA 000425 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/12/2016 
TAGS: MARR PREL FJ
SUBJECT: FIJI CIVIL-MILITARY FRICTIONS RE-HEAT 
 
REF: A. SUVA 401 
 
     ¶B. SUVA 393 
     ¶C. SUVA 254 
     ¶D. SUVA 26 
 
Classified By: Amb. Dinger.  Sec. 1.4 (B,D). 
 
Summary 
------- 
¶1. (C)  Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF) Commander 
Bainimarama has resumed his public blasts at PM Qarase's 
government and has issued not-so-veiled threats that Qarase 
must step down or face the consequences.  Current motivators 
for Bainimarama may include controversial bills coming before 
Parliament; Qarase's request for a Supreme Court opinion on 
the RFMF's domestic-political powers; the nomination of a 
Colonel, who tried to remove Bainimarama last January, to be 
Prison Commissioner; and revelations in a current court case 
that suggest officials in the Qarase government of 2001 
engaged in corrupt practices.  Bainimarama's current threats 
may just be bluff, as in the past; or, given his seeming 
degree of irritation, they could be for real.  A constraint 
must be the reality that past coups in Fiji were against 
ethnic-Indian-dominated governments.  Qarase's 
ethnic-Fijian-led government would raise new and difficult 
issues for the ethnic-Fijian RFMF.  Another factor is that 
Bainimarama is scheduled to be on travel for most of the next 
month.  Embassy Suva is monitoring the situation closely. 
End summary. 
 
RFMF Commander resumes public blasts at Government 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶2. (C)  After four months of relative calm in the often 
fractious relationship between RFMF Commander Bainimarama and 
Fiji's civilian leadership, Bainimarama has resumed public 
outbursts.  In late September (refs A and B), he used the 
occasion of a "passing out parade" for a group of high school 
military cadets to lambaste PM Qarase for a "qoliqoli" bill 
on indigenous foreshore rights.  Bainimarama warned that the 
bill would spur conflict within ethnic-Fijian communities and 
could take Fijians back to the days of grass skirts and 
cannibalism.  In a follow-on interview with the Fiji Sun 
newspaper Bainimarama reportedly suggested U.S. encouragement 
of frank and open discussion at the mid-September Pacific 
Armies Management Seminar (PAMS) in Nadi motivated his 
speaking out publicly yet again.  We countered that claim by 
reaffirming publicly the strongly held USG belief that a 
military must be subordinate to the elected civilian 
leadership in a democracy. 
 
"All powerful" military's not-so-veiled threats 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
¶3. (C)  When Bainimarama returned from a visit to UN 
Headquarters in New York at the end of September, he 
continued his inflammatory public remarks.  In media 
interviews on Columbus Day weekend, he expressed frustration 
that PM Qarase has failed to listen to the RFMF's views on a 
series of issues.  In particular, Bainimarama called on the 
PM and several of his Ministers to resign because of 
allegations they were implicated in an agricultural-funding 
scam dating from 2001 and currently subject of a criminal 
trial.  He reportedly said if the Ministers don't resign, "we 
will deal with this."  In another interview, Bainimarama 
reportedly said "the RFMF is all powerful and has outlived a 
lot of governments and people.  In the next couple of weeks, 
we will find out who does the huffing and puffing."  At the 
time, Qarase was in Australia for a business conference.  In 
a media interview he reportedly dismissed the resignation 
call and reiterated his interest in curbing such military 
outbursts via a Supreme Court advisory opinion on the 
military's constitutional roles.  Opposition Leader Beddoes 
and former PM and Opposition Leader Chaudhry issued 
statements that expressed a degree of understanding for 
Bainimarama's frustrations and support for his call that 
politicians implicated in corrupt practices must resign. 
 
Motivating factors: controversial bills 
--------------------------------------- 
¶4. (C)  Several political/security factors probably play into 
Bainimarama's renewed media campaign.  First, Qarase has 
introduced two controversial bills (qoliqoli and land-claims 
tribunals) to Parliament, despite Bainimarama's firm advice 
not to do so.  A controversial "truth and reconciliation" 
bill waits in the wings.  Fiji's multi-party Cabinet 
experiment, dating from May elections, so far has generated a 
 
SUVA 00000425  002 OF 003 
 
 
surprisingly cooperative atmosphere (ref C); but the 
controversial bills will test the Cabinet's resiliency and 
ability to work through tough issues.  Bainimarama clearly 
has no trust that PM Qarase will, in the end, display good 
faith in handling the bills. 
 
Possible Supreme Court advisory opinion 
--------------------------------------- 
¶5. (C)  Second, a few weeks ago, Qarase formally asked 
President Iloilo to seek a Supreme Court opinion on the 
RFMF's legitimate roles under Fiji's current Constitution. 
Prior to the May elections at a time when Bainimarama had 
RFMF truth squads going from village to village to campaign 
against Qarase's party, the PM announced that, if reelected, 
he would seek the judicial opinion.  Bainimarama believes the 
RFMF retains broad national-security powers it gave itself 
under the military-drafted 1990 constitution that followed 
two coups in 1987.  Most legal experts believe Fiji's 1997 
Constitution deleted the broad RFMF powers and placed the 
military in the usual subordinate relationship to the 
civilian government in a democracy. 
 
¶6. (C)  A delegation of senior RFMF officers approached 
President Iloilo while Bainimarama was in New York, 
reportedly to confirm their loyalty to their Commander and to 
ask the President not to forward Qarase's request to the 
Supreme Court.  Bainimarama and Iloilo are close.  It was 
Bainimarama who secured the Presidency for Iloilo after the 
illegal change of government in 2000.  On the other hand, 
Vice President Madraiwiwi, a lawyer, believes strongly that 
the President has no discretion on forwarding a PM's request 
to the Court and has so advised Iloilo.  For the moment, 
Madraiwiwi tells us, the request has gone to the Attorney 
General's office for a bit of refining, and it is not to be 
transmitted to the Court unless the President gives his 
blessing.  We are told PM Qarase believes Iloilo will so 
bless.  The VP hopes that will happen but is not 
overconfident. 
 
Court martial or Prison Commissioner? 
------------------------------------ 
¶7. (C)  A third motivation for Bainimarama is that the Qarase 
Government recently proposed Col. Baledrokadroka as a 
candidate to become Commissioner of Prisons.  Baledrokadroka 
faces a court-martial within the next few weeks on charges he 
attempted to organize an RFMF mutiny against Bainimarama last 
January (ref D).  There were rumors at the time that 
Baledrokadroka's effort was encouraged by the Home Affairs 
Ministry.  The Prisons nomination could be a reward. 
Bainimarama recently stated publicly: "that (assignment) will 
not happen."  Other RFMF senior officers indicated the same. 
Fiji's Public Service Commission, which is labeled "non 
partisan," announced on 10/12 that the position is to be 
"re-advertized."  Bainimarama must be pleased. 
 
Agriculture scam: ministers implicated? 
--------------------------------------- 
¶8. (C)  Yet another motivation seems to be the 
agriculture-scam trial, now under way in the courtroom of 
Justice Shameem.  PM Qarase and several Ministers from his 
previous government have been called as witnesses.  The 
defendant is a former Agriculture CEO who allegedly 
facilitated pork-barrel transfers to ethnic-Fijian districts 
in the lead-up to Fiji's 2001 elections that confirmed 
Qarase's place as PM.  So far, it is not clear at all that 
any Qarase Minister will be indicted, though there are plenty 
of rumors of malfeasance from that time.  Several newspaper 
editorials have pointed out that Bainimarama's call for 
resignations appears very premature. 
 
Bainimarama's next steps? 
------------------------- 
¶9. (C)  Aside from the motives, what are Bainimarama's likely 
next steps?  One possibility is that the latest flurry is 
simply bluff, yet again.  He wants his "national security" 
views on political issues to win the day.  He figures threats 
of force can motivate action.  During the past several years, 
Bainimarama has repeatedly issued such threats to remove the 
Qarase government.  To date, he hasn't implemented them. 
 
¶10. (C)  On the other hand, Bainimarama seems at the moment, 
given the above-listed motivations, to be truly piqued and to 
have a degree of support from most of his hand-picked senior 
officers.  Many of them have publicly backed Bainimarama's 
red line on the Baledrokadroka nomination.  Many of them 
 
SUVA 00000425  003 OF 003 
 
 
reportedly joined the excursion to lobby President Iloilo. 
We note that Bainimarama has long had a "coup" scenario 
sketched on a blackboard behind a curtain in his office. 
That may be for show, but it could also be for real.  If 
real, travel plans for the next month could delay 
implementation.  Bainimarama is to depart Oct. 14 on a trip 
to Rome (MFO) and the Middle East.  Shortly after returning 
in early November, he is to be off again to the CHODs 
conference in Malaysia. 
 
¶11. (C)  A complicating factor is that, while Fiji has 
suffered from a "coup culture," with two military coups in 
1987 and a civilian-led one in 2000, all those events were 
against ethnic-Indian-dominated governments.  Removing the 
ethnic-Fijian-dominated Qarase government, that has now won 
two elections and last May had the overwhelming support of 
ethnic-Fijian voters, could be a very hard sell to the RFMF's 
overwhelmingly ethnic-Fijian force. 
 
A calm but watchful approach 
---------------------------- 
¶12. (C)  At the moment, Suva is calm.  VP Madraiwiwi, who 
hopes to have another in a series of meetings with 
Bainimarama shortly, yesterday advised us not to get overly 
excited just yet.  We are following that advice, while also 
ensuring that our emergency-action processes are tuned up, 
just in case. 
DINGER