VZCZCXRO1301
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSQ #0980/01 2900815
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 170815Z OCT 06 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY SKOPJE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5283
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUESEN/SKOPJE BETA
RUEHSQ/USDAO SKOPJE MK
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SKOPJE 000980 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/SCE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PINR MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: OPPOSITION SDSM LEADER AXED IN 
NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE 
 
 
Classified By: P/E CHIEF SHUBLER, REASONS 1.4(B) & (D) 
 
SUMMARY 
 
¶1. (SBU) SDSM President and former Prime Minister Vlado 
Buckovski lost an October 7 intra-party confidence vote, 
setting the stage for rival Radmila Sekerinska, an SDSM vice 
president, to run for the party presidency at the SDSM's 
extraordinary congress on November 5.  Buckovski was ousted 
due to general dissatisfaction among members regarding his 
handling of this year's parliamentary elections debacle in 
which the party lost heavily.  Sekerinska is backed by 
President Crvenkovski, who has been engaged in low-intensity 
political battles with Buckovski since the latter became 
prime minister in late 2004. 
 
¶2. (C) Likely to take the SDSM helm in November, Sekerinska 
probably will play the loyal opposition role in the 
parliament while she consolidates her leadership position. 
After that she will take a less cooperative, more ideological 
approach to dealing with PM Gruevski's government.  She is 
likely to try to distance herself eventually from Crvenkovski 
to demonstrate her independence.  We expect Buckovski to 
remain inside the SDSM tent while he waits to see which 
direction Sekerinska will take the party.  End Summary. 
 
 
SDSM PRESIDENT BUCKOVSKI LOSES CONFIDENCE VOTE 
 
¶3. (U) Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) party 
president and former prime minister Vlado Buckovski lost a 
vote of confidence at the party's October 7 convention. 
After the vote, SDSM Vice President and former Deputy Prime 
Minister Radmila Sekerinska announced her candidacy for the 
presidency, which will be decided at an extraordinary party 
congress on November 5.  The party congress also will decide 
on the composition of key party structures, including the 
party vice presidents, and will elect a new secretary general. 
 
SDSM MEMBERS PURGE LEADERSHIP AFTER PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS 
DEBACLE 
 
¶4. (C) Party insiders had expected Buckovski to fall given 
widespread discontent in the SDSM over the former prime 
minister's handling of the 2006 parliamentary elections, 
which the SDSM-led coalition lost by a wide margin.  Some of 
the anger was directed at Buckovski's pre-election deal with 
junior coalition partner LDP that eventually gave them five 
seats in parliament out of the 32 won by the SDSM-led 
coalition, despite LDP's nearly zero popularity ratings in 
polls taken before the elections.  Buckovski also was 
suspected of being complicit in, or at least tolerant of, 
corruption that reportedly enriched a close circle of his 
associates.  At the same time, there was widespread feeling 
among the SDSM rank-and-file that the Buckovski government 
had neglected the pressing needs of their constituencies. 
 
THE PRESIDENT AS POWER BROKER 
 
¶5. (SBU) Sekerinska, who is expected to be the sole SDSM 
presidential candidate, is closely backed by President 
Crvenkovski (a former SDSM party president).  During the 
parliamentary election campaign, and in the weeks leading up 
to the SDSM convention, it was clear that Crvenkovski was 
maneuvering to weaken Buckovski to prepare the way for an 
eventual Sekerinska victory. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Crvenkovski and Buckovski had been trading verbal 
blows for the past year, with a brief "truce" only in the 
immediate lead-up to the parliamentary elections.  Just 
before the October 7 SDSM convention, some local media ran a 
string of stories, allegedly planted by government officials 
with Buckovski's support, inaccurately portraying Sekerinska 
as having misused foreign aid funds during her tenure as 
Deputy Prime Minister for Euro-Integration.  (NOTE: Although 
Sekerinska was in charge of donor aid coordination in her 
Deputy PM role, aid money did not flow through her office. 
Nor have there been complaints from us or other international 
donors regarding either misappropriation of assistance funds 
or Sekerinska's handling of donor coordination affairs. END 
NOTE.) 
 
SKOPJE 00000980  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) The apparent rationale for the VMRO-DPMNE-led 
government's collaboration with Buckovski in attacking 
Sekerinska was to keep Buckovski in control of the party in 
exchange for his support for a draft police law.  The SDSM 
was split on whether to support government compromise 
proposals on the draft law, and was betting that Buckovski 
could deliver the SDSM votes if he managed to outmuscle 
Sekerinska. 
 
WILL SEKERINSKA PLAY THE ROLE OF LOYAL OPPOSITION? 
 
¶8. (C) With Sekerinska likely to win the SDSM's November 
leadership contest easily, we expect she initially will play 
the loyal opposition in the parliament while she consolidates 
party support.  She told us October 12 that she intends to 
back the GOM's draft law on wiretapping, for example, which 
requires a 2/3 parliamentary vote. 
 
¶9. (C) As she secures her leadership position, however, we 
expect Sekerinska to step up attacks on the government and to 
show Social Democratic grassroots supporters she can lead an 
SDSM with a stronger ideological core than was the case for 
the more pragmatic Buckovski.  At the same time, she will try 
to distance herself from Crvenkovski to avoid accusations 
that she is merely his pawn. 
 
WOOING THE NEW SOCIAL DEMOCRATS? 
 
¶10. (C) Sekerinska also will test the waters with the New 
Social Democratic Party (NSDP -- 7 MP seats) of former SDSM 
member Tito Petkovski.  Petkovski never hid his dislike for 
Buckovski, and there is widespread speculation that NSDP -- 
currently a member of the governing coalition -- could leave 
the shaky right-of-center VMRO-DPMNE-led government to join 
forces with Sekerinska if PM Gruevski continues his recent 
missteps on legislative issues. 
 
WHITHER BUCKO? 
 
¶11. (C) Another question among the local politerati is 
whether Buckovski will abandon SDSM and start his own party, 
or whether he will remain in the party and build his own 
faction, although he has said he will do neither.  Since he 
reportedly can only count on six of 32 SDSM coalition MPs for 
support at present, Buckovski likely will decide to remain 
within the SDSM tent until it is apparent in which direction 
Sekerinska will choose to take the party. 
MILOVANOVIC