VZCZCXRO7826
RR RUEHCN RUEHGH
DE RUEHGH #6493/01 2860052
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 130052Z OCT 06
FM AMCONSUL SHANGHAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4687
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0540
RUEHSH/AMCONSUL SHENYANG 0260
RUEHGZ/AMCONSUL GUANGZHOU 0237
RUEHCN/AMCONSUL CHENGDU 0255
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 0337
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI 0253
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 4973

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 006493 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EAP/CM 
NSC FOR WILDER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  10/13/2016 
TAGS: PREL CH JA TW KN
SUBJECT: EAP DAS CHRISTENSEN AND SHANGHAI SCHOLARS 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat, Deputy Principle Officer,  , US 
Consulate Shanghai. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  During a wide-ranging lunch discussion with EAP 
DAS Christensen on September 14, several of Shanghai's prominent 
international relations scholars stressed that it was important 
for China and the United States to have a clear understanding of 
each others positions.  Two scholars acknowledged that China 
could do more to pressure North Korea to return to the Six-Party 
talks, but said it was unlikely that China would take on a 
tougher position for fear that it would lead to the regime's 
collapse and regional instability.  One scholar characterized 
the recent protests in Taiwan as chaotic and said that President 
Chen Shui-bian would step down if asked by the United States. 
The scholars also reported that current Prime Minister and at 
the time Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Shinzo Abe was 
interested in visiting China in October and said that such a 
visit would be a good thing.  The scholars did not believe 
Shanghai's pension scandal would affect Shanghai government 
operations or the economy.  (Note: This was before former 
Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Liangyu was removed from office on 
September 24. End Note.)  They personally supported the goal of 
democracy, but acknowledged that political reform in China would 
be a long-term process.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Consul General hosted a lunch on September 14 for EAP 
DAS Christensen Shanghai Association of American Studies 
President Ding Xinghao, with several prominent Shanghai 
scholars, including Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) 
Vice President Huang Renwei, Fudan University Center for 
American Studies (CAS) President Shen Dingli, CAS Professor Ren 
Xiao, and Shanghai Institute of International Studies (SIIS) 
Director of Academic Exchanges Shao Yuqun.  Deputy Consul 
General, Public Affairs Officer, and Poloff also attended the 
lunch. 
 
 
 
----------- 
 
North Korea 
 
----------- 
 
 
 
¶3.  (C) The scholars probed DAS Christensen for the U.S. 
bottomline on North Korea.  CAS Director Shen (protect) said it 
was important that the United States provide clear signals on 
North Korea.  He added that the missile tests should not be the 
U.S. bottom-line and warned that the worst possible case 
scenario would be for North Korea to obtain nuclear weapons.  He 
acknowledged that China could do more to pressure North Korea to 
return to the Six-Party talks, but added that it was in China's 
interest to maintain the current regime.  According to Shen, as 
long as the Kim Jong-Il regime remained in power, the United 
States would be forced to rely on China to rein it in.  He added 
that China must similarly rely on the United States to rein in 
Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian.  He said, therefore, these two 
problems were linked and China would not take a tough position 
towards North Korea until it was confident that the United 
States was committed to containing Taiwan independence. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (C) SASS Vice President Huang (protect) disagreed that 
Taiwan and North Korea were linked.  He agreed, however, that 
China could be more proactive.  He said China was not willing to 
take a tougher stance towards North Korea because it feared the 
consequences of regime collapse.  He added that in discussing 
North Korea, one must understand that there was nothing that can 
be done to change the leadership or power structure of the 
regime.  He compared it to Yugoslavia and said that the collapse 
of such authoritarian regimes always led to chaos.  Fudan 
University's Ren (protect) and Shen said that there were 
indications that North Korea's economy was improving and that it 
was interested in economic reform.  Ren had recently traveled to 
North Korea where he saw fields of corn.  Shen had recently 
hosted two North Korean diplomats who were very interested in 
 
SHANGHAI 00006493  002 OF 003 
 
 
learning about economic issues.  DAS Christensen said he would 
welcome these developments if they were true, but cautioned that 
economic reforms, at best, were a long process and that one 
should not rely on such minor indications as evidence of North 
Korea's commitment to economic reform. Moreover, we can not 
afford to wait to see if North Korea will really carry out 
meaningful reforms over time while Pyongyang, in the meantime, 
is developing a nuclear arsenal. He urged that China be more 
proactive in encouraging North Korea to return to the Six-Party 
talks and implement the September 19, 2005 joint agreement. 
 
 
 
------------------ 
 
Taiwan, Japan, SCO 
 
------------------ 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) Huang characterized recent protests in Taiwan as 
chaotic.  He asked whether the United States would interfere and 
tell President Chen Shui-bian to step down.  DAS Christensen 
said that these protests were a part of the democratic process 
and that it was not appropriate for the United States to 
interfere.  The United States does not pick and choose 
individual leaders for election or removal from office within 
democracies, but instead insists on a peaceful and legal 
political process.  Huang said President Chen would step down if 
asked by the United States, but did not say whether he thought 
this would be a good thing. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C) DAS Christensen expressed hope that Japan and China 
could improve bilateral relations.  He added that disagreements 
over historical issues had become too exaggerated and urged that 
Asian countries resolve the issue among themselves.  Ren noted 
that there were reports that at the time Chief Cabinet Secretary 
and currently Prime Minister Shinzo Abe would like to visit 
China in October.  Shen thought that this was a good sign and 
said China should be proactive and invite Abe.  According to 
Huang, not only would this make China look good, but Abe would 
not be able to refuse the invitation. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C) SIIS Shao Yuqun (protect) raised the U.S. role in 
Central Asia and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). 
She noted that there appeared to be a lot of discussions in the 
United States on the SCO and suggested that there should be 
Track II discussions on the issue to avoid any misunderstanding 
between the United States and China. She also noted that much of 
USG policy towards Central Asia depended on a stable 
Afghanistan, but presently Afghanistan was not stable.  DAS 
Christensen agreed that more needed to be done to promote 
stability in Afghanistan and encouraged China to play a bigger 
role in this area, for example by fulfilling its existing 
pledges to deliver foreign aid.  He added while some Americans 
worried about China's increased activity in the region, he 
thought that this activity was positive as long as it led to 
greater regional stability. 
 
 
 
------------------------ 
 
Responsible Stakeholder? 
 
------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶8.  (C) Huang asked for more clarification of DAS Christensen's 
view on the concept of "responsible stakeholder."  DAS 
Christensen repeated his comments made to students at a 
roundtable at Fudan (septel).  He said China had not yet become 
the responsible stakeholder that Deputy Secretary Zoellick had 
envisioned and urged that China fully use its powers to play a 
more positive role in the international arena.  Ding (protect) 
noted that there continued to be strategic misunderstandings 
between the United States and China and that international 
issues affected China's domestic development.  He urged that 
 
SHANGHAI 00006493  003 OF 003 
 
 
more be done to improve communication between the two countries. 
DAS Christensen agreed and added that good U.S.-China relations 
had a positive effect on China's internal situation.  He added 
that the United States would continue the senior dialogue that 
had been chaired by former Deputy Secretary Zoellick.  The next 
round would be chaired by U/S Nick Burns. 
 
 
 
--------------- 
 
Domestic Issues 
 
--------------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (C)  The Consul General asked about the impact of the recent 
pension scandal in Shanghai.  Huang said that while the scandal 
was significant, he did not think it would influence the 
Shanghai government's operations or the economy.  He added that 
the central government was investigating five or six additional 
cases of corruption, each of which was huge.  Ding said he heard 
that one of the cases involved the wife of Executive Vice 
Premier Huang Ju.  (Note:  Ding made his comments prior to the 
removal of Shanghai Party Secretary Chen Liangyu. End Note.) 
Shen noted that as China had become wealthier, public servants 
were faced with more temptations and it was only human nature 
that there would be such corruption problems. 
 
 
 
¶10.  (C) The scholars discussed China's development at length 
and said that in general China was on the right path.  Ren said 
that most intellectuals believed that democracy was a worthy 
goal for China.  He did not indicate, however, whether the 
government shared this belief.  Ren was optimistic about China's 
future, but noted that China faced several difficult problems 
that it must carefully manage.  Shen added that one of the 
disadvantages of a communist government was that when the 
government made a mistake, it had disastrous results.  All of 
the scholars agreed that China faced significant challenges and 
that political reform would be a long-term process. 
 
 
 
¶11.  (U) DAS Christensen cleared this message. 
JARRETT