VZCZCXRO6422
RR RUEHCN RUEHVC
DE RUEHGH #6459/01 2850136
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 120136Z OCT 06
FM AMCONSUL SHANGHAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4648
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 0090
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RUEHGH/AMCONSUL SHANGHAI 4933

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SHANGHAI 006459 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/CM, INR/B AND INR/EAP 
STATE PASS USTR FOR STRATFORD, WINTER 
TREAS FOR OASIA - DOHNER/KOEPKE 
USDOC FOR ITA/MAC -  MCQUEEN, CELICO 
NSC FOR WILDER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  10/12/2031 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EINV ECON CH
SUBJECT: EAST CHINA VIEWS ON PEACEFUL RISE AND HARMONIOUS WORLD 
 
SHANGHAI 00006459  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Simon Schuchat , DPO, U.S. Consulate, Shanghai, 
Department of State. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary.  According to East China scholars, China's 
foreign policy doctrine is moving beyond the concept of 
"Peaceful Development" to "Harmonious World."  President Hu, 
determined to put his stamp on China's foreign policy, had 
initially supported the "Peaceful Rise" concept promoted by 
foreign policy advisor Zheng Bijian.  High-level opposition to 
the term "rise," however, led Zheng to devise the current 
"Harmonious World" formulation.  Conferences and speeches have 
focused on the "Harmonious World" concept, including a recent 
Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences Conference reported septel. 
East China scholars also tell us that while "peaceful rise" had 
been removed from the official foreign policy lexicon, the 
concept still retained explanative power and was making a 
comeback.   End Summary. 
 
------------------------------------- 
Peacefully Developing Out of Conflict 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) In a June discussion, Director of the Russian and 
Central Asian Studies department of the well-connected Shanghai 
Institute of International Studies (SIIS) Lu Gang provided 
Poloff with a history of the "Peaceful Development" and 
"Peaceful Rise" concepts.  He said the "Peaceful Rise" concept 
formulated by Zheng Bijian, China Reform Forum President and one 
of Beijing's top foreign policy advisors, was born out of 
Zheng's desire to make China's foreign policy catch up with 
China's 21st century realities.  According to Lu, China's 
prevailing--and outmoded--formulation, "Peaceful Development," 
had emerged in the early 1980s after Deng Xiaoping reached 
preeminence.  In the 1970s, China's foreign policy had been 
aimed at playing the United States off against Russia in order 
to avoid a conflict with either.  After Deng began implementing 
a policy of rapid economic growth to strengthen regime 
legitimacy, a foreign affairs academic named He Fang proposed 
that, rather than manipulating international tensions, China 
would do better to minimize them over in order to create a 
favorable international environment to allow for Chinese 
export-led economic growth. 
 
¶3.  (C) He's "Peaceful Development" formulation, as it was 
known,  held that, in order to maintain legitimacy and 
stability, China's economy needed to develop.  In order for 
China's economy to develop, it needed a peaceful international 
situation.  In other words, China's foreign policy should focus 
on resolving political struggles with other countries to foster 
economic cooperation, which would allow for expansion of exports 
to drive domestic growth.  Deng -- at the behest of his advisor 
Huan Xiang -- adopted the policy, which continued after his 
death.  By 2000, China's entire foreign policy was aimed at 
promoting an export-friendly international system. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) However, China was too big and its development 
happened too fast, according to Lu.  Towards the middle of the 
1990s, other countries began worrying that China had ulterior 
motives and was "rising" militarily as well as economically. 
Those fears were bolstered after China's escalation of tensions 
in the Taiwan Straits in 1995-96.  Moreover, other countries 
began worrying about China's claim on natural resources, oil, 
and food, fears epitomized by Lester Brown's 1995 book "Who Will 
Feed China." 
 
------------------------- 
Rising out of Development 
------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) According to Lu, by 2000 Zheng had reached the 
conclusion that the "Peaceful Development" concept was out of 
date and over the next three years formulated his "Peaceful 
Rise" concept.  Zheng argued that foreigners had already 
concluded that China was rising and had moved past 
"development."  China needed to openly recognize that it was 
becoming an important international and regional player while at 
the same time reassure other nations that China had no ill 
intentions and was still committed to maintaining a peaceful 
international environment in order to continue developing. 
China needed to mold the international environment not just to 
create a favorable export environment, but also to allow China 
 
SHANGHAI 00006459  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
to take its rightful place on the world stage. 
 
¶6.  (C) Lu said that initially, President Hu Jintao and Premier 
Wen Jiabao embraced Zheng's "Peaceful Rise" concept, and used it 
in some of their speeches.  According to Lu, Zheng had become 
"close friends" with Hu when Hu was head of the Central Party 
School and Zheng was his deputy.  Lu believed that Zheng had 
even served as Hu's personal secretary at one point.  Although 
also respected by former President Jiang Zemin, Zheng was loyal 
to Hu. 
 
¶7.  (C) During an August 4 discussion with Poloffs, Fudan 
University's Center for American Studies Director Shen Dingli 
said that initially some influential Shanghai scholars had 
supported the "Peaceful Rise" formulation.  For instance, Vice 
President of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences (SASS) 
Huang Renwei and Director of the SASS Institute of World Economy 
Zhang Youwen oversaw the SASS publication of five books on 
Peaceful Rise in 2004 in an effort to ingratiate themselves with 
Zheng. 
 
¶8.  (C) According to Lu, despite high-level support, Zheng's 
ideas met with bureaucratic resistance.  Old-timers in the 
Ministry of Foreign Affairs argued that China could not use the 
word "rise" in its foreign policy formulation lest it signal to 
the rest of the world that--never mind the word 
"peaceful"--China had hegemonistic intentions.  Shen told us 
that Jiang had sided with the older diplomats and opposed the 
new formulation, arguing that China would not be peaceful if 
Taiwan declared independence. 
 
¶9.  (C) Shen asserted that, at an April 23, 2004,  Politburo 
meeting, on the eve of the Boao Forum, party leaders discussed 
the "Peaceful Rise" phrase and decided three things: 1) China 
was not afraid to say "Peaceful Rise"; 2) it was not necessary, 
however, to use the phrase, and; 3) it was better to say 
"Peaceful Development."  During an August 7 conversation, 
Jiaotong University's Center for National Strategy Studies Vice 
Director Zhuang Jianzhong affirmed that the Politburo meeting 
had taken place.  He glossed the decision as meaning that the 
leadership would refrain from using "Peaceful Rise" in its 
official policy documents and official speeches, but that it was 
acceptable for scholars to use the phrase.  Zhuang noted that, 
even after the Politburo meeting, Jiang had visited the Chinese 
Academy of Social Sciences in his capacity of Chairman of the 
Central Military Commission to try to convince the scholars 
there not to use the "Peaceful Rise" formulation. 
 
¶10.  (C) Shen noted that some, including himself, objected to 
the "Peaceful Rise" terminology for other reasons.  China had 
"risen" already in 1949, with Mao's proclamation of the founding 
of the PRC.  Ever since China's initial "rise," Shen said, there 
had been nothing peaceful about it.  Domestically, Shen 
(protect) cited the anti-rightist campaigns of the 1950s, the 
Great Leap Forward, the Cultural Revolution, the Tiananmen 
Massacre, and the killing of peasants in Guangdong earlier this 
year as evidence of the Party's pugnacious nature.  Shen also 
pointed to the numerous border skirmishes with India, Russia, 
and Vietnam, as well as the government's killing of 12 
Vietnamese sailors last year to demonstrate China's 
international bellicosity. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
The Rising Development of a Harmonious World 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (C) Lu believed that Zheng had accepted the reality of the 
political situation and had moved beyond his initial "Peaceful 
Rise" notion to the new "Harmonious World" concept.  According 
to Lu, in 2000--the same time Zheng had been formulating his 
initial "Peaceful Rise" concept--the central leadership adopted 
a "strategic perspective" that called for maintaining a peaceful 
international climate until at least 2020.  Major world conflict 
should be avoided during this 20 year period to give China a 
"strategic opportunity" to develop into an economic and military 
power.  Although China would focus on avoiding war during this 
20 year period, Lu acknowledged that Taiwan was the one wildcard 
and China would not hesitate to use force to bring Taiwan back 
into the fold. 
 
¶12.  (C) According to Lu, Zheng assessed that if China was to 
peacefully rise and fully realize its "strategic opportunity" it 
must focus more heavily on resolving domestic problems.  In 
addition to maintaining a good foreign environment, issues 
 
SHANGHAI 00006459  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
associated with China's "peaceful development" to date, such as 
the growing gap between rich and poor, the east-west gap, and 
the urban-rural gap, needed to be resolved or else China's 
"strategic opportunity" would be lost.  To that end, Zheng 
supported and promoted Hu's "Harmonious Society" and "Scientific 
Development Concepts" as important components of China's overall 
foreign policy.  Moreover, situations that embroiledChina in 
conflict with other nations or non-state actors meant that its 
resources would be siphoned away from resolving domestic 
tensions that threatened regime stability.  In other words, 
China's foreign policy could no longer focus solely on 
maintaining a favorable export environment, but needed to focus 
on international stability to allow China to clean up its 
domestic problems.  Cooperation on issues outside of trade 
relationships needed to be given greater importance.  Lu noted, 
for instance, that China understood the emerging threat of 
global terrorism to their "strategic opportunity" and had 
attached great importance to the Shanghai Cooperation 
Organization as a result. 
 
¶13.  (C) During a late August meeting, Nanjing University 
Professor Gu Su agreed with Lu that Zheng was the primary driver 
of the "Harmonious World" concept.  Gu said that this new 
foreign policy tack meant an emphasis on cooperation instead of 
"rise," although, he noted, the "rise" was understood in the 
formulation.  According to Shen, Hu Jintao had been looking for 
an overarching vision and theory he could use to leave his mark 
on foreign policy and, indeed, Party doctrine.  Shen said that 
Zheng, assisted by Huang Renwei, had developed the "Harmonious 
World" concept to provide Hu with what he was looking for. 
 
¶14.  (C) Professor Zhuang noted that President Hu had delivered 
his first major speech on "Harmonious World" to the United 
Nations on September 15, 2005, marking an important shift in 
policy.  According to the speech as reported in Xinhua, Hu's 
foreign policy vision for achieving "harmony" included: 
strengthening multilateralism; encouraging mutually beneficial 
cooperation to achieve common prosperity; respecting different 
civilizations and encouraging "inclusiveness" so "all 
civilizations [can] coexist harmoniously and accommodate each 
other"; and reforming the United Nations.  (Comment: Although 
the term "Harmonious World" had been used previously, Hu's 
September 15 speech evidently marked the first time Hu had 
spoken specifically and to such a broad audience about the topic 
and thus marked the beginning of a shift in policy orientation. 
End comment.) 
 
¶15.  (C) Like "Peaceful Rise," however, "Harmonious World" was 
not without its critics.  Professor Shen said that during the 
December 2005 "Annual Review of the International Situation" at 
SIIS, "Harmonious World" came under serious attack from the 
older foreign policy community, including scholars and former 
ambassadors.  Again, in April 2006, the theory had been 
subjected to "strong internal debate," with some "realists" 
arguing that the Party needed to avoid putting "Harmony" above 
all else.  These "realists" feared that it would send the 
message to the United States that China would cave to foreign 
pressure on most issues in the interest of preserving 
international harmony. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
"Peaceful Rise" Remains Important, if Not Official 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶16.  (C) Despite the emergence of the "Harmonious World" policy 
formulation, the "Peaceful Rise" concept has remained an 
important academic formulation that has regained popularity in 
recent months.  Professor Zhuang attributed the resurgence of 
interest in "Peaceful Rise" to the United States's new opinion 
of China.  Zhuang said that the U.S. "stakeholder" formulation 
implied that China was rising in importance and that the United 
States had accepted China's rise as a fact.  Chinese scholars 
were taking U.S. policymakers at their word and felt less 
inhibited about using the word "rise."  In addition, growing 
concern among many in the United States over China's growing 
economic influence and energy consumption had led many U.S. 
academics to use "rise" to describe China as a threat to 
American global economic dominance including access to energy 
and other natural resources.  In response, more and more Chinese 
scholars were reverting to the "Peaceful Rise" formulation to 
address these American concerns, arguing that while China was, 
indeed, becoming a more important global player, it did not have 
belligerent intentions. 
JARRETT