VZCZCXRO6315
OO RUEHAST
DE RUEHVJ #2329/01 2751049
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 021049Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY SARAJEVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4542
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUFOAOA/USNIC SARAJEVO PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SARAJEVO 002329 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BK
SUBJECT: BOSNIAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS: SILAJDZIC LOOKS TO BE 
A WINNER 
 
REF: A. SARAJEVO 2307 
 
     ¶B. SARAJEVO 2279 
 
SARAJEVO 00002329  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. (U) Citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina October 1 went to 
the polls to elect members of the three-member Presidency, 
and members of State and local legislatures.  CEC preliminary 
tallies at midnight declared Haris Silajdzic (Party for 
Bosnia and Herzegovina (SBiH)) winner of the Bosniak 
Presidency with 38.13 percent of the Bosniak vote, and 
Nebojsa Radmanovic (Alliance of Independent Social Democrats 
(SNSD)) the winner of the Serb Presidency by a landslide 
65.23 percent.  At midnight, the race for the Croat 
Presidency was too close to call, with the two leading 
candidates Ivo Miro Jovic (Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)) 
and Zeljko Komsic (Social Democratic Party (SDP)) separated 
by 0.4 of a percentage point with a large portion of the vote 
left to count.  Small numbers of voters across the country 
encountered problems resulting from a new voter registration 
system but misunderstandings seemed to have been managed well 
by poll workers.  Final but unofficial results will be 
released at noon on October 2 (0600 Washington time).  End 
Summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina proceeded smoothly 
and relatively uneventfully under a clear blue sky over the 
course of October 1.  Polling was well organized and, 
according to preliminary Central Election Commission (CEC) 
figures, voter turnout was up, in absolute terms, from 
previous elections with an national turnout rate of 52.74 
percent.  Polling stations opened on schedule at 0700.  The 
Embassy dispatched ten teams composed of emboffs and FSNs to 
monitor developments throughout the country. 
 
Results 
------- 
 
¶3. (U) As expected, heavy turnout in the Republika Srpska 
(RS) cemented the front-runner position of Milorad Dodik and 
his SNSD on all electoral levels.  The 65.25 percent of the 
Serb presidency vote declared for Serb Presidency candidate 
Neboja Radmanovic exceeded the expectations of even the most 
enthusiastic pre-election SNSD commentators.  All indications 
suggest that the SNSD will fare similarly well in legislative 
elections. 
 
¶4. (U) Haris Silajdzic was declared the winner of the Bosniak 
Presidency at midnight.  Although significant numbers of 
votes in areas such as Sarajevo and Tuzla had yet to be 
counted, Silajdzic,s 38.13 percent appeared unassailable 
with his closest competitor, incumbent SDA President Sulejman 
Tihic, achieving only 18.12 percent.  Tallies for the Croat 
Presidency remain neck and neck with Komsic and Jovic 
separated by less than half a percentage point for most of 
the evening.  Although significant percentages of the votes 
in SDP strongholds of Tuzla and Sarajevo cantons are yet to 
be officially tallied, the race remains too close to call at 
0300 Washington time.  The CEC has not yet released 
preliminary results for legislative elections.  Anecdotal 
evidence suggests the SNSD will ride the presidential 
landslide to a strong showing in State Parliament and the RS 
National Assembly.  SDP spokespersons have asserted that the 
party fared particularly well in legislative elections 
predicting party representation will double in State 
Parliament to six seats. 
 
Turnout 
------- 
 
¶5. (U) Voter turnout was high during the course of the 
morning and early afternoon but slowed as the day went on. 
Certain precincts in metropolitan Sarajevo were reporting 
ballot shortages due to high turnout.  A preliminary trend 
early suggesting voting was particularly heavy in the RS, 
especially in the eastern part of the entity, was borne out 
by subsequent CEC figures.  Early turnout figures in the 
Croat heartland of Western Herzegovina were noticeably lower 
in the morning, although they appeared to pull even with the 
national average over the course of the afternoon.  The 
general impression of our teams was that youth voters were 
more active than in the past.  CEC turnout rates released at 
midnight on October 1 indicated voter turnout rates were 
56.06 percent in the Republika Srpska (RS), and 51.13 percent 
in the Federation, with an overall national turnout rate of 
52.74 percent.  Although the 2002 voter turnout rate was 55 
percent, the subsequent registration of 400,000 new voters 
means the current figures represent an increase in voter 
 
SARAJEVO 00002329  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
participation in real terms. 
 
Voter Registration Problems 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6. (U) Across the country the new passive voter registration 
system caused widespread, but manageable, confusion. Under 
the new Citizen Identification Protection System (CIPS), 
individuals were automatically registered to vote where they 
applied for a new national identity card. Although the CEC 
website maintained a guide to polling stations, we heard many 
reports that the information was incorrect and directed 
voters, including at least one mission FSN, to the wrong 
polling places.  While a referral mechanism set up at polling 
stations by the CEC and various NGOs seemed to work well, the 
confusion often resulted in voters having to travel some 
distance and visit several polling stations before being able 
to cast their ballots. 
 
¶7. (U) This problem created an extra layer of controversy in 
Brcko District where voters may choose to vote in either the 
Federation or the RS and were automatically registered in the 
entity where they voted in the 2002 national elections.  The 
Embassy team in Brcko encountered a number of confused and 
angry voters at the polls who did not understand why they 
were registered in a certain entity.  For example, emboffs 
spoke with Semso Sakovic, Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina 
(SBiH) candidate for State House of Representatives, at his 
polling station where he discovered he was registered to vote 
in the RS and therefore unable to vote for himself. The 
problem was compounded in rural areas. 
 
Looking Ahead 
------------- 
 
¶8.  (U) Results in the RS, while dramatic, were not 
unexpected with many pre-election commentators predicting 
that the popularity of RS PM Milorad Dodik would carry his 
SNSD to a sweep of the polls.  Although the race among 
Bosniak parties was very close over the campaign season, the 
win by Haris Silajdzic was also presaged by incumbent 
President Sulejman Tihic's sagging popularity throughout the 
fall.   However, as reported reftels, the results of the race 
for the Croat Presidency could have major implications for 
coalition bulding and the role of the Croat people in the 
national political debate. 
 
 
MCELHANEY