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DE RUEHSN #2508/01 2892132
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P 162132Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY SAN SALVADOR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4042
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SAN SALVADOR 002508 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2016 
TAGS: ES PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: EL SALVADOR:  FMLN "PRESIDENCIABLES" FOR 2009 
 
REF: A. SAN SALVADOR 712 
 
     ¶B. SAN SALVADOR 2008 
     ¶C. SAN SALVADOR 2056 
     ¶D. SAN SALVADOR 2204 
 
Classified By: DCM Michael A. Butler, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C)  SUMMARY:  With two and a half years to go until the 
2009 presidential election, speculation is emerging with 
regard to who will be the candidate of the opposition 
Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN). 
Orthodox-hardliner leader Schafik Handal was beaten soundly 
in 2004 by ARENA's Tony Saca, leading some to conclude that a 
fresh face from outside party circles--and one not associated 
with the nation's bloody 12-year armed conflict--might fare 
better in 2009.  Possible candidates include, in addition to 
veterans of the party's highly-disciplined hardliner core, a 
leftist television commentator and a former ARENA cabinet 
member.  The FMLN's orthodox leadership, who since the 2004 
election have expelled all moderates and consolidated control 
of the party, may have to make a difficult choice between 
unquestioning obedience to the party's platform versus 
victory at the polls.  END SUMMARY 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶2. (C)  In the wake of 2003 national congressional and 
municipal elections, prior to the FMLN's selection of its 
presidential candidate for 2004, polls showed that a more 
moderate candidate such as television commentator Mauricio 
Funes could defeat an ARENA candidate by perhaps 10 percent. 
Following the FMLN's selection of veteran orthodox-hardline 
leader Schafik Handal as the candidate who would oppose 
ARENA's Tony Saca, this advantage was quickly lost. 
Although mere weeks prior to the March 2004 election a 
quarter of the electorate remained undecided, Handal went on 
to a stunning defeat in all 14 of El Salvador's departments, 
including longtime FMLN bastions Morazan, Chalatenango, and 
metropolitan San Salvador, garnering only 36 percent of the 
vote to Saca's 58 percent.  In recent months, some members of 
the FMLN inner circle have discussed whether a candidate from 
outside the party might be better able to deliver the Casa 
Presidencial in 2009 (reftel B). 
 
 
Possible 2009 FMLN Presidential Candidates 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶3. (C)  Journalist Mauricio Funes began his career as a 
television commentator in 1986, during the nation's armed 
conflict; his morning show on Channel 12 established a 
reputation as a left-of-center forum reserved primarily for 
FMLN sympathizers.  In 2005, Channel 12's Mexican parent 
company Azteca fired Funes without notice, citing 
unprofitably low ratings for his show.  Many on the left 
insisted that Funes's dismissal was due to his political 
orientation, and charged that it would exert a chilling 
effect on freedom of the press in El Salvador.  Other 
observers of the political scene opined that Funes had 
misused his access to the media to promote his own political 
ambitions, and outlined how that tendency, in conjunction 
with his often-overbearing and intolerant personality, had 
been his undoing at Channel 12.  (Note:  In April 2003, Funes 
openly outlined his willingness to stand as an FMLN 
presidential candidate under certain conditions, to which the 
FMLN leadership responded that a vice presidential slot was 
the best they could offer--and that Funes must first join the 
party.  End note.)  After his departure from Channel 12, 
Funes reestablished his media presence with a show on the 
Megavision network's Channel 21, and he occasionally serves 
as a correspondent for the CNN's Spanish-language version. 
Funes is 47 years old; his marriage to childhood actress 
Regina Canas (with whom he has two sons) resulted in divorce; 
he is often seen publicly with the Brazilian Embassy's 
Cultural Affairs Officer Wanda Pignato, and the two will 
apparently soon marry. 
 
¶4. (C)  FMLN Coordinator General Medardo Gonzalez better fits 
the traditional mold of FMLN presidential candidates. 
Gonzalez fought as a Popular Liberation Forces (FPL) 
guerrilla under the nom de guerre "Comandante Milton Mendez". 
 (Note:  The FPL was one of the five political-military 
organizations that combined to form the FMLN in October 1980. 
 End note.)  An unsuccessful candidate for FMLN Coordinator 
General in 1997 among a field of four, Gonzalez finally won 
the office in September 2004 by beating out Santa Tecla Mayor 
Oscar Ortiz.  Gonzalez was closely allied with Handal, whose 
orthodox faction still tightly controls the FMLN. 
 
¶5. (C)  Although San Salvador Mayor Dr. Violeta Menjivar eked 
out a narrow victory--by a 44-vote margin--in the 
hotly-contested and controversial March mayoral election 
(reftel A), she has since struggled to address the capital 
city's daunting problems of violent crime, garbage 
collection, and crumbling, inadequate infrastructure (reftel 
C).  Menjivar's name is perennially floated as a possible 
candidate whenever the discussion turns to 2009, but her FMLN 
mayoral predecessors (Hector Silva and Carlos Rivas Zamora) 
learned that attempting to govern a metropolis with more 
problems than resources is less likely to lead to the 
presidency than to political exile.  The 55-year-old Dr. 
Menjivar is a guerrilla veteran; from 1980 until war's end in 
1992, she organized and ran medical units that served FMLN 
insurgents.  After the armed conflict, she served on the 
party's powerful Political Commission, and in 1997 was made 
FMLN Deputy Coordinator General.  Menjivar served three terms 
in the Legislative Assembly (1997-2006); in 1999 she declined 
an offer to be her party's vice presidential candidate. 
After she was hand-picked to run for mayor, FMLN hardliners 
dispatched Menjivar to Cuba for political training by the 
Communist Party of Cuba.  Menjivar hews closely to orthodox 
views; at a 2003 human rights conference, she angrily 
denounced the United States as the ultimate source of all the 
world's human rights abuses. 
 
¶6. (C)  Oscar Ortiz is the popular FMLN mayor of San Salvador 
suburb--and La Libertad departmental capital--Santa Tecla 
(population 190,000).  Although he also lost out to Schafik 
Handal in his attempt to become the party's 2004 presidential 
candidate, he has already alluded publicly to a possible 2009 
presidential bid, though his overtures were very coolly 
received at FMLN headquarters (reftel B).  Like 
Coordinator-General Gonzalez, the 45-year-old Ortiz was an 
FPL guerrilla, and went on to become an influential FMLN 
military leader after the FPL's 1980 incorporation into the 
FMLN.  Although never officially charged in the crime, Ortiz 
is widely acknowledged to have assassinated President 
Cristiani's Minister of the Presidency Jose Antonio Rodriguez 
Porth (father-in-law of 1999-2004 President Francisco Flores) 
in June 1989.  Although his relationship with the FMLN's 
powerful hardliner faction is chilly, Ortiz himself is not 
especially moderate in his political views.  He is dedicated, 
hard-working, and ambitious, and is careful in maintaining 
cordial and open relations with the Embassy. 
 
¶7. (C)  Arturo Zablah served as Minister of Economy and 
Presidential Commissioner for Trade Negotiations under ARENA 
President Alfredo Cristiani (1989-1994), and afterwards as 
President of the Autonomous Port Executive Commission (CEPA) 
under ARENA President Armando Calderon Sol (1994-1999).  Late 
in Calderon Sol's term, Zablah began to stray from the ARENA 
ranks, and after leaving office was publicly critical of the 
2001 "dollarization" of El Salvador's economy, and of CAFTA. 
(Note:  Notwithstanding the positions he has held, Zablah has 
no educational background in Economics; he received his 
Industrial Engineering degree from Monterrey (Mexico) 
Institute of Technology in 1976, followed by an M.S. in 
Systems Analysis from Georgia Tech in 1980.  End note.)  Now 
52 years old, Zablah has returned to managing a family 
furniture and mattress company, Industrias Capri, where he 
worked prior to his political career.  In an interview with 
Salvadoran online newspaper "El Faro", Zablah criticized the 
administration of President Francisco Flores (1999-2004), 
whom he blamed for worsening the polarization that 
characterizes the nation's political environment.  Zablah 
repeated his condemnation of dollarization and free trade, 
including CAFTA, and outlined how in the past, he had once 
held dialogue with the FMLN regarding a possible 
vice-presidential candidacy. 
 
¶8. (C)  COMMENT:  The FMLN has lost every postwar 
presidential election by a margin of 22-24 percent of the 
vote.  Polling data publicized in September by leading daily 
La Prensa Grafica showed Mauricio Funes with the highest 
approval rating among all potential FMLN presidential 
candidates, followed by Oscar Ortiz and Violeta Menjivar. 
With President Saca's approval ratings slipping as 
Salvadorans' concerns grow regarding the country's spiraling 
violent crime (reftel D), ARENA appears vulnerable for 2009. 
Furthermore, no prospective ARENA candidate has emerged as a 
frontrunner, nor is Saca grooming one at this time.  The FMLN 
leadership must ultimately decide whether their 
business-as-usual process of naming a battle-hardened 
old-guard communist as presidential candidate will serve them 
best in 2009, or whether the time has finally come to try a 
new approach with fresh faces, with all the risk that entails 
to the party's iron-fisted internal discipline. 
BARCLAY