VZCZCXRO1436
PP RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHRA #0847/01 2901109
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 171109Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY RIGA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3442
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RIGA 000847 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2016 
TAGS: PREL EAID BO GG RU LG
SUBJECT: LATVIAN MFA ON BELARUS AND GEORGIA 
 
REF: A) RIGA 633 B) STATE 171907 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Catherine Todd Bailey.  Reason: 1.4 (D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Belarus has dropped the charges against the 
Latvian diplomat accused in July of distribution of 
pornography and transferred the evidence to Latvia under the 
bilateral mutual legal assistance treaty.  While this should 
allow some stabilization in the bilateral relationship, 
including the likely return of the Latvian Ambassador to 
Minsk, the entire experience is causing the GOL to reevaluate 
its relationship with Belarus.  It will consider how to best 
use its nascent assistance program as a policy tool in 
Belarus, hoping to focus on people to people exchanges.  On 
Georgia, Latvia is concerned by recent Russian actions, but 
agreed to somewhat softer GAERC language in order to reach 
consensus.  They would like to see NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer 
discuss Georgia when he visits Moscow later in the month.  In 
Georgia, Latvia is considering how best to use its 
development assistance to strengthen government institutions. 
 End summary 
 
¶2. (U) Pol/econ chief met October 16 with Edgars Skuja, MFA 
U/S for bilateral affairs to review a number of issues. 
Skuja was accompanied by Liga Andersone, Office Director 
equivalent for the FSU. 
 
Belarus 
--------- 
 
¶3. (C) Pol/econ chief asked about press reports that Belarus 
had dropped the charges against the Latvian diplomat accused 
of distributing pornography in July following a sting 
operation(ref A).  Skuja said that the GOB had formally 
closed its investigation and, under the terms of the 
Latvia-Belarus Mutual Legal Assistance Treaty, transferred 
all evidence to the Latvian government on October 12, which 
in turn has passed it to the Latvian Prosecutor General's 
Office.  Skuja said the Latvian Prosecutor would have a free 
hand to determine whether any charges would be filed.  Skuja 
met October 12 with the Belarusian Ambassador to Latvia who 
assured him, on a political level, that the case is closed 
and they look to move forward on the bilateral relationship. 
 
¶4. (C) The next step will be for Belarusian Ambassador 
Gerasimenko to have a meeting with Latvian FM Pabriks.  Since 
presenting credentials in July, Gerasimenko has not had any 
courtesy calls on GOL officials and abruptly departed the 
country just before the scandal erupted.  Skuja thought this 
meeting could happen as early as October 18.  In that 
meeting, Pabriks would note that Belarus violated the Vienna 
Convention in Diplomatic Relations, even if only "indirectly 
or unwittingly" and Gerasimenko will so acknowledge.  The GOL 
will reflect that acknowledgement in a press statement, 
although the Belarusian side is not expected to make any such 
direct statement to the press.  If that all happens, Pabriks 
could decide as early as October 19 to allow Latvian 
Ambassador to Minsk Maira Mora to return to post. 
 
¶5. (C) More problematic, according to Skuja, are some 
meetings scheduled for later in October, including the 
Latvia-Belarus intergovernmental commission (IGC) planned for 
October 27 and an investment forum in Minsk the following 
day.  Skuja thought the GOL might delay the IGC, citing the 
recent Latvian elections, and the Belarusians might then 
delay the investment forum.  That was fine, Skuja thought, as 
the GOL needed an opportunity to rethink its Belarus policy. 
He thought the GOL was likely to step up its efforts to build 
people to people contacts between the two countries as a 
result of this.  The one event that should go forward is an 
October 31 meeting in Riga to sign technical agreements 
related to the recent demarcation of the border. 
 
¶6. (C) Reflecting on the lessons learned from the incident 
and its aftermath, Skuja said that it became clear to the GOL 
just how much "heavy competition" there is between GOB 
institutions such as the Ministry of the Interior, MFA, BKGB 
and the President's office.  Throughout the negotiations with 
Minsk, the GOB was rarely able to speak with one voice.  The 
one person the Latvians found helpful was PM Sidorsky.  While 
acknowledging his lack of ability to bring about real change, 
Sidorsky was the most open and helpful person in the process, 
Skuja said. 
 
Georgia 
---------- 
¶7. (C) Skuja welcomed the discussion in NATO's political 
committee on Georgia October 13 and said Latvia thought that 
was a very good consultation.  Pol/econ chief, drawing from 
ref B, stressed the importance of holding such consultations 
in a timely manner and urged Latvia not to let some nations 
delay such consultations for their own ends.  Skuja agreed, 
but said Latvia had not been too energized because in 
 
RIGA 00000847  002 OF 002 
 
 
multiple conversations with Georgian officials the weeks of 
October 2 and 9 (including Latvian president with Georgian 
Speaker and the two PM's), the Georgians had not asked for 
any assistance from the Latvians in getting this raised in 
NATO or the EU.  Skuja added, though, that Latvia thought the 
NATO SYG de Hoop Scheffer should definitely discuss Georgia 
on his upcoming visit to Moscow and he would instruct the 
Latvian mission to NATO to make this point. 
 
¶8. (C) Skuja said Latvia was pleased with the language likely 
to emerge from the GAERC on Georgia.  While Latvia might have 
wanted some tougher wording on Russia's actions, at least 
what was currently on the table reflected that both Georgia 
and Russia needed to work to deescalate tensions and it 
strongly supports resolving the separatist conflicts in a way 
that fully respects Georgia's sovereignty and territorial 
integrity.  Skuja said that Latvia will consider ways to use 
its development assistance in Georgia to strengthen State 
institutions there. 
 
¶9. (C) Comment: Latvia has never had illusions about the 
nature of the Lukashenko regime, but they perhaps thought 
they might have better luck than others at working with it. 
The July incident and its aftermath have been eye opening for 
the GOL, but it is hard to predict exactly what policy will 
emerge from the interplay of foreign policy goals to promote 
democracy and economic goals to promote trade and investment. 
 On Georgia, the Latvians' natural instinct seems to be to 
take a tough line with Moscow, but that is tempered by the 
institutional realities of both the EU and NATO, which end up 
softening the Latvian position.  Importantly, in both cases 
Skuja noted that Latvia's small assistance budget could be a 
tool, meaning they are beginning to factor this into their 
policy development.  It is a good sign ahead of the October 
19 - 20 visit of EUR/ACE coordinator Tom Adams. 
BAILEY