VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHZP #2106/01 2991545
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 261545Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY PANAMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9235
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHDC
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASH DC

UNCLAS PANAMA 002106 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EINV EFIN BTIO CASC MRS
SUBJECT: TROUBLED ADOLESCENCE FOR PANAMA'S RESIDENTIAL 
TOURISM INDUSTRY 
 
REF: A. PANAMA 317 
     ¶B. PANAMA 319 
 
¶1. (SBU).  Panama's residential tourism industry is 
struggling to maintain its momentum in the face of rising 
prices, increased construction costs and potential excess 
supply.  According to Paul McBride, CEO of Panamanian real 
estate marketing company Prima Panama, the selling price of 
the average condominium unit under construction in Panama 
City for the expatriate market is $289,000, 9% higher than 
the median value of homes in the U.S. ($266,000).  Panama 
City high rises, partially spurred by speculation, may not 
reach full occupancy.  Incomplete sales create financial 
exposure for the buyers, developers and the financial 
institutions involved.  Conversely, full occupancy would mean 
unprecedented demand for city services and paralytic traffic 
jams.  Legal, labor, and environmental problems, and higher 
material costs plague many developments in the interior 
elongating build times.  Panama's developers and government 
are facing the difficult reality of delivering on their 
marketing and advertising claims.  Nonetheless, the marketing 
machinery continues to accelerate.  International Living's 
held its biggest event ever in Panama October 18 to 21. 
Approximately 90% of the 225 attendees were from the U.S. 
Panama's tourism ministry (IPAT) plans to spend $43 million 
to promote Panama over the next four years.  END SUMMARY 
 
------------------------------- 
WHERE HAVE ALL THE DEALS GONE ? 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U)  Panama's expatriate driven residential tourism 
industry is concentrated in Panama City, Boquete, and Bocas 
del Toro.  Additional developments are occurring along the 
Pacific coast west of Panama City and into the Azuero 
peninsula.  According to Panama's Tourism Ministry (IPAT), 
there are 161 buildings under construction in Panama City and 
another 55 approved waiting to start construction.  Panama 
City's skyline is undergoing a remarkable transformation due 
to high-rise construction.  In the past 18 months, Panama 
City prices have doubled from $1000 a square meter to $2000 
for new properties with some high end developments reaching 
$3000 a square meter. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Media reports state there are currently seven major 
residential developments and more than 25 smaller 
developments in progress in the western area of Boquete. 
With more than $20 million in development investment in 
Boquete over the last three years, the total investment in 
the area is expected to exceed $160 million.  Amcit developer 
Sam Taliaferro told Econoff the number of foreigners living 
in Boquete is roughly 300, many of whom are living in Panama 
part-time.  Taliaferro stated there are up to 3000 home sites 
available in the Boquete area, but it will take 15 years to 
build these homes even if they were all sold today.  Land 
prices in Boquete have risen from between $2 to $8 a square 
meter to between $50 and $100 in the last 10 years.  Boquete 
is also within sight of the Baru Volcano, an active volcano 
currently being monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey 
(septel). 
 
¶4. (U) Three large developments are in progress in Bocas del 
Toro, Isla Solarte (183 lots), Red Frog Beach (800 lots) and 
Sunset Point (174 lots) with two more under consideration, 
Bocas del Drago and a possible Decameron Resort.  Red Frog 
Beach, offers condominiums, town houses and beachfront homes 
from $275k to $800k.  Sunset Point is advertising $85,000 to 
$350,000 per lot and building costs of $100 per square foot. 
However, construction timeframes in Bocas del Toro equal or 
exceed that of Boquete. 
 
-------------------------------------- 
SUPPLY COULD OUTPACE EXPATRIATE DEMAND 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (U) The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) 
reported in August 2006 that 95% of America's 77 million baby 
boomers do not have assets of any significant value.  The top 
5% control 52% of the financial assets held by this 
generation.  The slowdown in the U.S. housing market 
threatens the ability of American retirees to depend on the 
equity in their existing U.S. properties to meet their 
commitments in Panama.  Increased airfares and further 
security measures may also impact the appeal of home 
ownership or retirement too far from friends and family. 
Ultimately, the expatriate retiree market is smaller than 
industry boosters may portray and is price sensitive. 
 
¶6. (U) According to Panama's immigration department, 759 
 
Pensioner Visas were issued last year.  About 70% were issued 
to U.S. citizens (534), 7.5% to Canadians (57), 3.4% to UK 
citizens (26), 3.3% to Colombians (25), 1.6% to Cubans (12) 
and the remaining 14% to other countries (105).  Pensioner 
visas issued for the first six months of 2006, still show 70% 
American (343), 10% Western Europe (50), 7% Canada (33), 3% 
UK (14), 3%, Venezuela (14), and the remaining 6% to other 
countries.  Comment:  The actual number of expatriate 
property owners in Panama is probably higher as many people 
do not spend the entire year here and visit under a tourist 
visa instead.  Nonetheless, the annual number of Americans 
immigrating to Panama appears to be in the hundreds, not the 
thousands. End comment. 
 
7.(U) Prima Panama estimates that 60% to 70% of the Panama 
City units sold to the expatriate market have been purchased 
by speculators who make 5% to 10% down payments and 
anticipate "flipping" these units prior to the due date of 
the remaining balances.  Prima Panama studies identified up 
to 120 buildings actively in the sales cycle.  Their research 
indicates that over the next five years, up to 20,000 
apartments are scheduled to be completed in Panama City. 
(Note: a City of Miami Planning Department study stated 
almost 12,000 apartments were build in the Miami metro area 
between 1995 and 2006.)  Prima Panama surveys further showed 
that of the expatriates considering buying in Panama, only 
18% said they wanted to live in Panama City.  The rest 
indicated a preference for either the mountains, the beach or 
the islands. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment:  If all of the Panama City buildings in 
construction and scheduled to be constructed proceed, excess 
supply threatens the speculators ability to unload their 
purchases in time.  Speculators could walk away from their 
down payments or unload these units at drastically reduced 
prices.  End Comment.  Local realtors told Econoff that 
expatriate apartment owners in Panama City who purchased in 
the last three years now looking to resell at appreciated 
prices have been unable to do so. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
IADB STUDY SLAMS RESIDENTIAL TOURISM INDUSTRY 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶9. (U) A private study contracted by the Inter-American 
Development Bank and partially leaked to the press in 
June/July 2006, sharply criticized Panama's residential 
tourism policies.  The IADB study reportedly stated there was 
no real local benefit and the development was damaging the 
environment.  The study noted the lack of urban planning and 
regulation to manage the explosive growth.  The mayor of 
Bocas del Toro and leaders of the Ngobe Bugle and the Nocribo 
comarcas (indigenous reservations) have asked Panama's 
tourism ministry (IPAT) to suspend the granting of any 
further concessions in their territory due to the lack of 
urban planning (septel). 
 
¶10. (U) The IADB study considers Panama's promotion of 
residential tourism a mistake, noting the displacement of 
Panamanians, including the indigenous, from their traditional 
sources of subsistence for one time payoffs.  Many low income 
land owners throughout Panama are seduced into selling their 
land for attractive prices but are too inexperienced to 
properly invest this one time windfall.  Once the money is 
spent, the study suggests that these families find themselves 
without alternative affordable housing or their traditional 
livelihood. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL DISPUTES ON THE RISE 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
11.(U) As predicted, the growing expatriate presence is 
increasingly controversial (reftels).  Traditionally a coffee 
and flower growing region, Boquete now boasts virtually full 
employment.  However, many local Panamanian residents 
complain of the higher prices for food and services as a 
result of the influx of foreigners.  Comment:  Besides 
 
providing employment, many of Panama's initial wave of high 
energy expatriate retirees are also very community service 
oriented.  Local chapters of the Lions' Club, Rotary Club and 
other homegrown associations are conducting school lunch 
programs, donating computer equipment and raising money for 
basic repairs and sanitation for the dilapidated public 
schools in their district.  End Comment. 
 
--------------------------- 
STILL A NICE PLACE TO VISIT 
--------------------------- 
 
 
12.(U) In August, the World Tourism Organization reported 
Panama received an estimated 1  million visitors in 2005, 
with an equal or greater number expected in 2006.  According 
to Panama's Tourism Minister Ruben Blades, foreigners visit 
Panama to shop, as tourists/eco-tourists and part time 
residents, in transit to other parts of Central and South 
America and to conduct business related to the Canal, the 
Colon Free Zone and Panama's financial district.  Panama's 
hotel industry announced $80 million in investment between 
now and 2010 to support more affordable eco-tourism and an 
influx of visitors related to the possible Canal expansion. 
ARREAGA