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C O N F I D E N T I A L NAIROBI 004629 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2026 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM ECON KE CH
SUBJECT: TWO MEETINGS WITH UHURU KENYATTA 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Larry Andre per 1.4 (b,d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Gliding over the faults of the previous KANU 
government, KANU political party leader Uhuru Kenyatta sees a 
political landscape marred by the destruction of party 
discipline, with ethnic politics an increasingly attractive 
and dangerous option for some.  The current opposition 
squabbling is distracting attention from real issues.  Kenyan 
politics is about personalities more than anything else. 
Kenyatta remains committed to an opposition coalition against 
Kibaki in the 2007 elections.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U)  A/S Frazer, Ambassador and PolCouns dined with Uhuru 
Kenyatta, head of the Kenya African National Union (KANU) and 
official opposition chief on the eve of Kenyatta Day, which 
celebrates his father's role as Kenya's first president. 
Deputy PolCouns and visiting member of the Secretary's policy 
planning staff Ted Craig breakfasted with Kenyatta the 
following day.  This message reports the themes Kenyatta 
raised at these meetings.  Note: many commentators believe 
this Kenyatta Day was the last: if a proposed and widely 
favored constitutional change goes through, the holiday will 
become "Heroes Day," commemorating a variety of Kenya's 
independence leaders.  End note. 
 
History as KANU sees it 
----------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Kenyatta questioned whether the oft-cited political 
progress in Kenya since KANU's departure from power was real. 
 Political freedom, he insisted, was increasing anyway under 
KANU.  A coalition voted out "terrible KANU," he said 
ironically, but immediately the head of the coalition 
(Kibaki) began acting as if he had been elected as a 
stand-alone candidate.  He governed not as the head of a 
coalition but as the head of his Democratic Party, which 
represented only one part of Central Province (Kikuyuland). 
Kibaki once in power decided there was no need to change the 
"strong Presidency" features of the Constitution he had 
campaigned against.  Then, seeing that he had lost his 
Parliamentary majority, he did what even Moi never did, 
"poaching" members of other parties to be part of his 
government.  After several years of this, there is no party 
discipline at all, Kenyatta lamented.  Confusion reigns. 
People who fought you in the election now support you. 
People who were elected under the banner of your party are 
now standing with the government and opposing you.  Kibaki 
was given a golden opportunity in 2002 to bring Kenyans 
together and take the country to the next level.  He 
squandered that opportunity and now we are at a worse state 
of affairs than we were prior to 2002, especially as regards 
entrenched ethnic sentiments. 
 
Political Observations 
---------------------- 
 
¶4. (C) Kenyatta made the following observations on political 
topics: 
 
THE MOU AND PERSONALITY POLITICS: Kenyatta said he has seen 
the famous "MOU" (memorandum of understanding) signed by the 
coalition of parties that ran against him as NARC in 2002. 
It demonstrates that Kibaki went back on his word.  (Note: it 
is widely accepted that the main deal of the MOU is that 
Kibaki becomes President, with the support of Raila Odinga 
and others, and in return agrees to amend the Constitution to 
create a weak presidency and a strong Parliament--with Odinga 
the obvious candidate for Prime Minister.  End note.) 
However, Odinga and others could not produce the MOU to shame 
Kibaki.  That is because politics in Kenya is not about 
policies, but personalities.  Thus, the MOU is a wide-ranging 
deal about who-gets-what more than an agreement on a new 
Constitution, and publishing it would embarrass Odinga and 
others as much as Kibaki and his inner circle. 
 
KIBAKI'S POLITICAL STRATEGY:  The Kibaki administration has 
clearly accomplished some good things for Kenya, especially 
on the economic front.  We cannot take that away from them. 
They have locked themselves into the mindset that re-election 
is assured by these achievements, ignoring the other side of 
the ledger.  They have disappointed many.  They were shocked 
by the referendum loss, never seeing it coming.  That same 
arrogance will blind them in 2007. 
 
ODM-K COALITION: Coalition politics works in many parliaments 
in the world.  Odinga is pushing hard for a single "ODM-K" 
party.  But why should Kenyatta and others abandon parties 
they have worked hard to build up?  The problem is not 
coalitions, but rather dishonest politicians who forget their 
promises once elected.  When Odinga keeps pushing for the 
dissolution of parties, with no clear reason, the question 
has to be put to him: what's your real agenda?  KANU will 
work with the Orange Democratic Movement-Kenya (ODM-K) 
coalition to oppose the government and win the next election, 
but will not dissolve.  After all, we did not need to 
dissolve our parties to win the referendum. 
 
ODM-K'S AMORPHOUS NATURE:  What are ODM-K's ideology, plans, 
principles, party platform and governing structure?  As of 
now, we are nothing but a collection of personalities and 
their ethnic constituencies.  We must move beyond this. 
Instead of focusing on who will get what post in some future 
government, we must agree on what we want to achieve for 
Kenyans.  If the ODM-K leadership can work together in a 
spirit of give and take, then we will win the next election. 
If not, then we won't.  So far, no one wants to fully commit 
their political organizations to ODM-K unless they are first 
assured of getting the top seat.  This is a bad sign. 
 
CONSTITUENCY DEVELOPMENT FUNDS--GREAT, BUT...: The bill 
establishing these funds was actually passed before Kibaki 
was elected.  It's a great program--people "who never saw one 
copper coin" spent by the government in their communities are 
suddenly seeing real spending on their needs.  However, there 
is no good oversight mechanism, as MPs are each responsible 
for funds for their districts.  The legislative function 
needs to be split from the oversight function.  Due to the 
collegial relationships among MPs, no one is going to 
publicly ask "is the honorable member from constituency X 
abusing his fund?"  Until this problem is solved, the program 
should not be expanded. 
 
ETHNICITY VS NATIONALISM: Kibaki has governed very much "as a 
member of a certain ethnic group, shall we say."  (Note: 
Kikuyu.  End note.)  The President's raiding of other parties 
(for cabinet members) and destruction of party discipline, 
without any real set of policies to give his governing 
coalition identity, leaves the country more vulnerable than 
ever to ethnic politics.  "I get called a traitor every day." 
 (Note: Kenyatta is an ethnic Kikuyu.  End note.)  We need to 
campaign on a theme of Kenyan unity, dropping the traditional 
notion of communities taking turns at the national trough. 
An enhanced spirit of nationalism and inclusiveness will 
increase accountability.  Corrupt individuals can no longer 
hide behind their communities. 
 
ETHNIC INCITEMENT FOR POLITICAL PURPOSES:  Some of my ODM-K 
colleagues openly speak of how their communities have been 
"slighted by the Kikuyu."  This is dangerous language.  They 
should say "slighted by Kibaki."  After all, the average 
Kikuyu has received no special benefit from this government, 
only the cronies around Kibaki have benefited.  No good will 
come from encouragement of ethnic warfare.  Kibaki with his 
access to state resources is in a better position to buy off 
community leaders and play ethnic politics than we are.  It 
is both politically expedient and morally right for us to 
avoid ethnic politics.  Tensions are such that sparks from 
any minor inter-ethnic incident can now ignite an 
uncontrollable fire.  I am worried. 
 
A NEW CONSTITUTION:  Poloff asked if ODM-K would run on the 
original "Bomas" draft constitution (which was altered by 
Kibaki's government before the referendum).  Kenyatta 
demurred.  Remember, he said, that different groups voted 
against the (government-backed) draft constitution for many 
reasons.  What united them was the "no" vote.  ODM-K needs to 
work through this issue very carefully, rather than engaging 
in its current squabbling. 
 
WILL RAILA RUN:  Raila Odinga is about 62, Kenyatta said, so 
this is his last real chance, and he will try with every 
ounce of his strength to become president of Kenya.  He will 
push right up to the moment when he sees he simply can't make 
it.  If that moment comes, as a pragmatist he will look 
around and say, "let's cut a deal. 
"MOI'S FADING INFLUENCE: While Moi is still very active and 
vocal, in fact his influence is fading.  This is shown in his 
inability to call the shots within KANU even on his own home 
turf in the central Rift Valley. 
 
Other Observations 
------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Kenyatta also offered his views on other topics: 
 
REMITTANCES:  Remittances from Kenyans in the UK, U.S., 
Canada and elsewhere have fueled a construction boom in 
Kenya.  The financial community is discussing the 
establishment of financial instruments to entice Kenyans 
abroad into participating in that sector as well.  Kenyatta 
supports a constitutional amendment to grant dual citizenship 
to Kenyans. 
 
CHINA:  There is a danger that Kenya's policy of increasing 
cooperation with China to balance its dependence on western 
donors will result in overdependence on China.  The award of 
an extensive airport upgrade contract to the Chinese will 
result in a "Chinese quality" airport, to Kenya's detriment. 
Kenyatta averred that China's much appreciated lack of 
conditions for its assistance will not last.  "Once we are 
dependent, the conditions will surely come."  A/S Frazer 
pointed out the downside of Kenya closely associating with a 
country that does not share its political ideals. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (C) Uhuru Kenyatta, son of Kenya's first president, is 
among the most perceptive and enlightened of Kenya's 
politicians, and a representative of the younger generation. 
However, he is a triple outsider at this point.  He stands in 
opposition to the government, in opposition to most Kikuyus 
(who strongly back Kibaki) and in opposition to some of his 
principle colleagues within the ODM-K coalition.  He also 
carries the historical baggage of KANU around his neck.  The 
party is both widely recognized among Kenyans for bringing 
about independence and for committing many abuses against 
standards of good governance and human rights.  Kenyatta was 
in fine form despite his many political woes.  He delivered 
his views with reason, conviction and charm.  We will know in 
coming months whether or not his plea for inclusive, 
issues-based politics will win over those among his ODM-K 
colleagues who are steeped in the traditional politics of 
manipulating ethnic voting blocs.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶7. (U) Neither Ted Craig nor A/S Frazer cleared this message. 
RANNEBERGER