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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAMA 001753 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016 
TAGS: MARR MOPS PREL PTER ASEC BA REGION BILAT
OFFICIALS 
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR U.S. CENTRAL COMMAND COMMANDER 
GENERAL ABIZAID'S OCTOBER 11-12 VISIT TO BAHRAIN 
 
Classified By: Ambassador William T. Monroe for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
. 
 
¶1.  (S) General Abizaid, we warmly welcome your October 11-12 
visit to Bahrain.  Your Bahraini interlocutors remain 
concerned about heightened tensions with Iran and will want 
to hear your views on U.S. plans to contain Iran, with 
specific reference to Iran's nuclear ambitions.  The GOB is 
suspicious of Iran's nuclear program and its assertiveness in 
dealing with the Arab Gulf States but remains engaged in a 
"correct" bilateral relationship.  An interagency delegation 
will visit Bahrain October 18-19 to promote the U.S. Gulf 
Security Dialogue and discuss possible developments in 
linking GCC air defense capabilities to deter the Iranian 
threat.  Bahrain is closely watching political and security 
developments in Iraq and is concerned about the potential for 
civil war and resulting sectarian violence spilling over into 
the region.  In an effort to support allied operations in the 
region, the King proposed Bahraini participation in CTF-150, 
and discussions have begun on this with the U.S. Navy. 
Bahrain passed and implemented a counter-terrorism law that 
specifically criminalizes conspiracy, but the public 
prosecutor judged that the law's provisions did not allow him 
to charge several young Sunni extremists who confessed 
recently to planning to travel to Afghanistan for "jihad." 
The King announced that parliamentary and municipal elections 
will be held on November 25, and politicians and political 
societies representing a broad range of opinion will 
participate.  A recent report alleging a senior government 
official's organized attempt to sway election outcomes has 
roiled the political scene.  End Summary. 
 
----------------- 
Dealing With Iran 
----------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) The Bahraini leadership is greatly concerned about 
increased tensions between the international community and 
Iran.  Bahrain hosted a two-day conference in mid-September 
for GCC countries during which the Interior Minister 
expressed concern about GCC countries finding themselves 
caught in the middle of nuclear powers.  GOB continues to 
express interest in improving its air defense posture and has 
inquired about obtaining Patriot missiles, a capability that 
is currently beyond the limits of FMS/FMF.  The Office of 
Military Cooperation is working to obtain funding for the 
Bilateral Air Defense Initiative (BADI), which will provide 
theater ballistic missile early warning and will integrate 
with the HAWK A system that the Bahrainis have already 
procured.  An interagency delegation will visit Bahrain 
October 18 and 19 to discuss next steps in the Gulf Security 
Dialogue.  The U.S.-organized Proliferation Security 
Initiative Leading Edge exercise will take place in Bahrain 
at the end of October.  The boarding and interrogation 
portion of the exercise will take place in Bahraini 
territorial waters. 
 
¶3.  (C) Bahrain's relationship with Iran is complex.  The 
Bahraini leadership is united in its suspicion of Iranian 
intentions regarding Bahrain and often sees an Iranian hand 
in incidents involving Bahrain's Shia community, which 
comprises some 70 percent of the country's citizens.  They 
are convinced Iran seeks to develop nuclear weapons and 
assert its influence around the region.  At the same time, 
Bahrain  faces the reality that it must live with its large 
neighbor across the Gulf.  Bahrain maintains "correct" but 
not warm diplomatic relations with Iran, with Bahraini 
leaders welcoming Iranian officials when they visit.  The 
economic relationship is based on Bahraini imports of Iranian 
fruit and other foodstuffs and some Iranian investment in 
Bahrain.  It is not clear that the Bahraini leadership has 
come to grips with how it will handle efforts to ratchet up 
the pressure on Iran if that includes, for example, calls for 
cutbacks in trade and engagement. 
 
------------------ 
Next Steps on Iraq 
------------------ 
 
¶4.  (C) The GOB publicly supports U.S. operations in Iraq, 
but as Crown Prince Salman told VADM Nichols October 4, it 
believes Iraqi forces should be moving to the front lines in 
place of coalition forces.  The CP commented that Iraqis have 
become lazy because international forces are protecting them. 
 You could brief your interlocutors on the state of 
operations in Iraq and urge them to continue their public 
support of the Iraqi government.  The GOB's greatest concern 
related to Iraq is that sectarian tensions and violence could 
 
MANAMA 00001753  002 OF 002 
 
 
spill over into Bahrain.  Bahraini officials will support 
measures to reduce sectarian violence while recognizing that 
the situation in Iraq is extremely difficult. 
 
------------------------ 
Participation in CTF-150 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (C) The King and CP have affirmed their interest in the 
Bahraini Navy participating in coalition operations in the 
region, in particular in Combined Task Force (CTF) 150, which 
patrols the Arabian Sea.  VADM Walsh told the CP October 4 
that Navcent and the Bahraini Navy are engaged in a 
constructive conversation about Bahrain's participation. 
VADM Nichols noted that Bahrain could participate in many 
ways, including information exchange, placement of liaison 
officers, or commitment of ships and other resources. 
 
--------------------- 
Counter-Terrorism Law 
--------------------- 
 
¶6.  (S) A counter-terrorism bill entitled "Protecting Society 
from Terrorists Acts" entered into force in August.  The law 
defines the types of acts considered to be terrorism, applies 
tough penalties, and criminalizes conspiracy to commit 
terrorist acts.  There is some question about whether the 
conspiracy clause will hold up given the constitutional 
court's June decision that a similar article in the penal 
code was unconstitutional.  In a first test of the law, the 
prosecutor general in late September released eight Bahrainis 
on bond following an investigation into possible terrorist 
activities.  Although several members of the cell admitted to 
planning to travel to Afghanistan for "jihad," the prosecutor 
general decided he did not have enough evidence to charge 
them under the CT law. 
 
----------------------------------- 
Elections Announced for November 25 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (C) The King announced September 28 that the first round 
of parliamentary and municipal elections will be held on 
November 25 and the second round one week later on December 
¶2.  All of the formerly boycotting political societies have 
registered with the government and announced their 
participation in the elections.  The new parliament will 
include a much broader cross-section of Bahraini political 
opinion, enhancing its credibility.  A recently leaked report 
drafted by a former advisor to a minister and senior member 
of the ruling family alleges that the minister had organized 
a secret team and disbursed over $2.5 million in an attempt 
to sway election results.  The resulting uproar has roiled 
the political scene with many politicians and societies 
demanding an investigation and removal of those involved in 
the conspiracy.  Possibly in response to the outcry, the King 
announced that e-voting would not be used in the elections, a 
key demand of activists and oppositionists, and could result 
in truly independent election monitors being allowed to 
deploy. 
 
 
********************************************* ******** 
Visit Embassy Manama's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/manama/ 
********************************************* ******** 
MONROE