VZCZCXRO0259
OO RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #1366/01 2780516
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 050516Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3277
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 LUSAKA 001366 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: 2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS: COMPARISON TO 2001 
RACES 
 
REF: A) LUSAKA 1357; B) LUSAKA 1303; C) LUSAKA 862; D) 05 LUSAKA 
 
643 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) 
announced on October 4 the final results to the 2006 parliamentary 
elections.  The ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) has 
won a small majority of seats.  A comparison to the 2001 
parliamentary elections reveals large increases in voter turnout in 
rural areas, which favored the MMD party.  In comparison to the 2001 
parliamentary elections, the Patriotic Front (PF) is the biggest 
winner, going from 1 seat in 2001 to 42 seats in 2006.  What MMD 
lost to PF, it gained from parties that belong to the United 
Democratic Alliance (UDA), which lost dozens of seats to MMD 
candidates.  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------- 
2006 Parliamentary Results Update 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) On October 4, the Electoral Commission of Zambia announced 
the final results for the 2006 parliamentary election and named 
winning candidates for 147 constituencies.  Three seats will remain 
unfilled due to deaths of candidates and will be contested in 
by-elections at a later date.  The breakdown for the parliamentary 
seats is as follows: 
 
 
Province         MMD   PF   UDA   Other 
--------         ---   --   ---   ----- 
Central          12    -     2     - 
Copperbelt        4    18    -     - 
Eastern          15    -     4     - 
Luapula           4    9     -     1 
Lusaka            5    7     -     - 
Northern         10    9     -     1 
North-Western     9    -     2     - 
Southern          -    -     17    2 
Western          13    -      1    2 
                 ---   --   ---   ----- 
TOTAL            72    43   26     6 
 
¶3. (U) According to the Constitution, the President may nominate 
eight Members of Parliament, which will give the MMD a clear 
majority of 80 out of 155 seats.  It is also more than likely that 
MMD will emerge victorious from at least two of the three upcoming 
by-elections, bringing its majority to 82 out of 158 seats. 
 
-------------------------- 
Comparison to 2001 Results 
-------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) In comparison to 2001 results, PF is the biggest winner, 
going from one seat in 2001 to 42 seats in 2006.  Although PF's 
victory comes at MMD's expense (PF won 34 seats that were previously 
held by MDD MPs), MMD was able to win 35 seats from former UDA MPs. 
MMD's total, therefore, remains mostly unchanged (69 seats in 2001 
compared to 72 seats in 2006).  UDA won 26 seats, whereas its member 
parties, the United Party for National Development (UPND), the 
United National Independence Party (UNIP) and the Forum for 
Democracy and Development (FDD), won a total of 74 seats in 2001 
(UPND 49, UNIP 13, FDD 12).  Heritage Party (HP), which won 4 seats 
in 2001, failed to win a single seat in 2006.  The future for HP, 
which also reportedly failed in local government elections, is 
bleak. 
 
¶5. (U) 2006 results show a shift in MMD's support base.  MMD's 
strongest support in 2001 came from the Copperbelt, Luapula and 
Northern provinces.  This year, PF won MMD's support base in most of 
the Copperbelt and in many parts of Luapula and Northern provinces. 
In 2006, no one speaks of Luapula and Northern Provinces as MMD 
strongholds.  Instead, they refer to Eastern, Western, North-Western 
and Central Provinces, which were unambiguous victories for the MMD, 
though in 2001 these provinces supported UDA alliance members UNIP, 
FDD and UPND.  A province-by-province review follows: 
 
Central Province (14 seats) 
--------------------------- 
In 2001, UPND and HP won 5 and 2 seats respectively; in 2006 UDP won 
2 and HP did not win any.  MMD went from 7 seats in 2001 to 12 seats 
in 2006. 
 
Copperbelt (22 seats) 
--------------------- 
What MMD gained in other provinces, it lost in the Copperbelt.  In 
2001 it won 20 seats, with the other 2 going to UNIP and HP.  In 
2006 it won only 3 seats, to PF's 18.  UDA and HP did not win any 
seats in 2006. 
 
Eastern (19 seats) 
------------------ 
 
LUSAKA 00001366  002 OF 003 
 
 
What the MMD lost to PF, it gained from UDA.  Eastern Province was a 
huge victory for MMD, which won only 1 seat in 2001, compared to 
UNIP's 12 seats, FDD's 5 seats and HP's 1 seat.  In 2006, MMD took 
15 seats, to UDA's 4. 
 
Luapula (14 seats) 
------------------ 
MMD lost 9 seats in Luapula Province (from 13 seats in 2001 to 4 
seats in 2006).  This may be due to PF's heavy campaign 
concentration here and in the Northern Province (Ref B). 
 
Lusaka (12 seats) 
----------------- 
Actually a victory for MMD, considering its 2001 performance, when 
the party won only 1 seat, to FDD's 6, UPND's 4 and ZRP's 1.  PF's 
gains (7 seats) in Lusaka came at UDA's (FDD's and UPND's) expense. 
 
Northern (21 seats, 1 unfilled) 
------------------------------- 
MMD lost ground to PF in Northern Province, having won only 10 of 
the 20 constituencies (one constituency awaits by-elections).  In 
2001, MMD won 20 out of 21 possible seats.  PF went from one seat in 
2001 to 9 seats in 2006. 
 
North-Western (12 seats, 1 unfilled) 
------------------------------------ 
North-Western Province was another big loss for UPND, which went 
from 9 seats in 2001 to 2 (UDA) seats in 2006.  UPND's seats were 
captured by MMD, which went from 3 seats in 2001 to 9 seats in 2006. 
 
 
Southern (19 seats) 
------------------- 
Southern Province remained mostly unchanged.  UPND's 18 seats in 
2001 were mostly replaced by 17 UDA seats in 2006.  The MMD lost the 
only seat it won in 2001.  The remaining two seats in 2006 were 
picked up by ULP (Sakwiba Sikota) and an independent candidate. 
 
Western (17 seats, 1 unfilled) 
------------------------------ 
A devastating loss for UDA (UPND), which won a majority (13) of the 
seats in 2001, compared to 3 MMD seats and 1 FDD seat.  This year, 
UDA only achieved one victory, compared to 13 MMD wins.  The 
remaining three seats went to UDA, ULP and an independent candidate. 
 
 
¶6. (SBU)  While UDA's candidate, Hakainde Hichilema, won more votes 
than many had anticipated in the presidential race, UDA's 
performance in the parliamentary elections, particularly in 
comparison to its prior performance in 2001, is a momentous loss. 
This is due in part to the leadership vacuum resulting from UPND 
president Anderson Mazoka's untimely death earlier this year and the 
divisive race for his successor that resulted in challenger Sakwiba 
Sikota's leaving the UPND and taking a number of party leaders with 
him to form the United Liberal Party (which allied itself to the 
PF).  The UDA coalition's delay in choosing a replacement and in 
launching its campaign efforts made the situation worse.  While many 
PF presidential votes may have come at UDA's expense, the same 
cannot be said for the parliamentary elections, where MMD votes came 
at UDA's expense. 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
Voter Turnout Surges, and Makes a Difference 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Voter registration may be one of the more remarkable 
differences between the 2001 and 2006 elections.  In 2006, 3,941,229 
Zambians registered to vote, compared to 2,604,761 in 2001, marking 
a 51 percent increase.  Voter turnout also improved, from 67.2 
percent in 2001 to 70.8 percent in 2006.  The percentage of rejected 
votes decreased from 1.91 percent in 2001 to 1.75 percent in 2006. 
 
 
                                           Change 
                2001         2006          (percent) 
                ----         ---           ------ 
Registered      3,941,229    2,604,761     51.3 
 
Votes Cast      1,785,485    2,789,114     56.2 
 
Voter Turnout   67.2         70.8          5.3 
(percent) 
 
Valid Votes     1,751,352    2,740,178     56.5 
 
Rejected Votes  1.91         1.75          -8.2 
(percent) 
 
¶8. (U) The figures reflect the active campaigning by NGOs on voter 
education and democracy participation.  A representative from the 
 
LUSAKA 00001366  003 OF 003 
 
 
Foundation for Democratic Process (FODEP), a Zambian civil society 
organization, told Poloff on Election Day that Zambians were showing 
up in greater numbers because FODEP and other NGOs had helped them 
realize that "they can make a difference and hold their leaders 
accountable through voting."  In addition to conducting voter 
education, FODEP and the Anti-Voter Apathy Project (AVAP) actively 
participated in election monitoring across the country. 
 
¶9. (U) The geographic distribution of the increase in voter 
registration and voting is worth examining: 
 
            Increase in     Increase in 
            Registered      Number of 
            Voters          Votes Cast 
            (percent)       (percent) 
            -----------     ------------ 
Central         85             96 
Copperbelt      38             32 
Eastern         48             54 
Luapula         55             42 
Lusaka          48             56 
Northern        57             70 
North-Western   49             51 
Southern        48             55 
Western         53             61 
 
While the increase in registered voters appears to be evenly 
distributed across Zambia (averaging about 50 percent), Central 
Province stands out at 85 percent.  Perhaps more relevant, however, 
is the actual number of votes cast, which are less proportionally 
spread.  Central Province (an MMD powerbase) almost doubled the 
number of votes cast, with a 96 percent increase.  Northern Province 
also showed an increase of 70 percent, and the constituencies that 
showed the greatest increases in the number of votes cast, Lunte 
(101 percent), Senga Hill (131 percent) and Kanchibiya (91 percent) 
all elected MMD candidates.   Copperbelt and Luapula Provinces, 
which overwhelmingly supported PF parliamentary candidates, showed 
the smallest comparative increase in voters. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Comment.  An increase in voter turnout (particularly in 
the rural areas) may have played an important role in the elections, 
particularly the presidential elections.  In a tight race, the 
relatively larger increase in voter turnout in MMD (rural) bases 
made a significant--perhaps even decisive--difference, considering 
that Mwanawasa won by 373,000 votes, but over one million additional 
votes were cast in 2006.  Additionally, building capacity of 
democratic processes within Zambia (in this case voter education and 
awareness), certainly paid off for Mwanawasa and the MMD.  Their 
2006 victory will hopefully encourage them to continue civic 
engagement and democratic institution building, particularly in 
rural areas where much of their support base now rests. 
 
MARTINEZ