VZCZCXRO7463
OO RUEHDU RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHLS #1357/01 2760453
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 030453Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3267
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LUSAKA 001357 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ZA
SUBJECT: FIRST GLANCE AT 2006 PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION RESULTS 
 
REF: A) LUSAKA 1303; B) LUSAKA 862; C) 05 LUSAKA 643 
 
¶1. (U) Summary.  The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) and local 
media have announced the results of 107 of the 150 parliamentary 
races that were held on September 28, in conjunction with 
presidential and local government elections.  As expected, the 
results show strong rural support for the ruling Movement for 
Multi-party Democracy (MMD), in contrast to solid Patriotic Front 
(PF) support in urban areas.  The United Democratic Alliance (UDA) 
won most seats in Southern Province, as well as several seats in 
Eastern and Western Provinces.  With over two-thirds of the outcomes 
announced, it is now possible to look ahead at contenders for 
cabinet and senior government positions.  End summary. 
 
-------------- 
GENERAL TRENDS 
-------------- 
 
¶2. (U) As of October 2, 2006, the ECZ has announced results to 95 of 
the 150 parliamentary races that were held in conjunction with 
presidential and local government elections on September 28.  Local 
media have reported results to another 12 races, bringing the total 
to 107.  Results from 41 constituencies are outstanding, and another 
two seats will be decided in by-elections to be held at a later 
date, due to deaths of candidates in September.  While the 
presidential elections are expected to be concluded at 18:00 local 
time on September 28, it is likely that the parliamentary elections 
will continue through October 3. 
 
¶3. (U) As expected (Ref A), rural voters remained loyal to the MMD, 
while urban voters rallied to support PF candidates.  The UDA drew 
its support mostly from the Southern Province.  The breakdown is as 
follows: 
 
Province         MMD   PF   UDA   Other   Pending 
--------         ---   --   ---   -----   ------- 
Central          10    -     -     -       4 
Copperbelt        3    15    -     -       4 
Eastern          10    -     3     -       6 
Luapula           5    2     -     1       6 
Lusaka            5    5     -     -       2 
Northern          8    4     -     -       9 
North-Western     7    -     1     -       4 
Southern          -    -     16    2       1 
Western           8    -     1     1       7 
                 ---   --   ---   -----   ------- 
TOTAL             56   26   21     4       43 
 
 
¶4. (U) The results clearly contradict pronouncements in the media 
that the PF had gained ground in the Central Province.  They do show 
strong PF support in the urban constituencies of Lusaka and 
Copperbelt provinces.  MMD held its ground in the rural Copperbelt 
provinces, perhaps owing in part to President Mwanawasa's heritage 
(his mother is from the matrilineal Lamba tribe, from the southern 
Copperbelt region) as well the region's long-standing ties to the 
MMD party. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Of the 107 winning candidates, only 31 are returning 
parliamentarians (29 were elected in the 2001 National Assembly 
elections and 2 were nominated to parliament by Mwanawasa).  Of 
these, 4 switched parties in the run-up to the elections:  former 
MMD MP Willie Nsanda and former UPND MP Henry Mtonga defected to the 
PF, former Zambian Republican party (ZRP) MP Sylvia Masebo switched 
to MMD, and former UPND MP Sakwiba Sikota represented the United 
Liberal Party (ULP).  The failure of more MP's to be re-elected 
reflects a general discontent with the current administration and 
re-enforces the "call for change" that ignited presidential 
candidate Michael Sata's campaign in order to accelerate the rate of 
development and poverty alleviation through more jobs, housing and 
worker entitlements. 
 
------------- 
LOOKING AHEAD 
------------- 
 
¶6. (U) With over two-thirds of the parliamentary candidate races 
already resolved, it is now possible to begin looking ahead to who 
might sit in the new cabinet, as well as who might not. 
 
¶7. (U) The following influential ruling MMD party candidates were 
not elected: 
 
--Former Vice President Lupando Mwape was not re-elected.  After 
results were announced in the Lukashya constituency, where he ran, 
PF cadres were reported to have chanted "Katoloshi, itoloshi 
yalepuka a shala fye na bombasa" (meaning, the trousers have been 
torn and he has only remained with underwear).  According to the 
Constitution, having lost a parliamentary race he may not be 
re-appointed to serve as Vice-President or to hold any cabinet 
position.  Some speculate that he will be given some form of 
 
LUSAKA 00001357  002 OF 002 
 
 
responsibility, such as an Ambassadorial position, given his 
campaign support to the president. 
 
--Austin Chewe, the MMD candidate in the urban Munali constituency 
in Lusaka (vacated by Forum for Democracy and Development President 
Edith Nawakwi), a successful businessman who unsuccessfully 
contested the MMD vice presidency in 2005 (Ref C), lost to PF 
candidate Josephine Chilufya Mumbi, a university lecturer and local 
businesswoman, who benefited from Sata's strong popularity in urban 
Lusaka. 
 
--Eugene Appel, MMD, a former Deputy Minister of Trade, Commerce and 
Industry 
 
--Patricia Nawa, who ran on an independent ticket, was a former 
Forum for Democracy and Development (FDD) MP and Deputy Minister of 
Defense 
 
¶8. (U) The following senior MMD MPs who served as Ministers in the 
first Mwanawasa presidency were reelected: 
 
--Lt. Gen. Ronnie Shikapwasha, former Foreign Minister as well as 
Home Affairs 
 
--Gladys Nyirongo, a former Minister of Lands as well as Sport, 
Youth and Child Development 
 
--George Mpombo, a former Minister of Energy and Copperbelt 
Province 
 
--Kennedy Sakeni, former Minister of Luapala Province 
 
--Sylvia Masebo, former Health Minister 
 
--Clever Silavwe, former Minister of Northern Province 
 
--Gaston Sichilima, a former Deputy Minister of Information and 
Broadcasting 
 
--Kapembwa Simbao, a former Deputy Minister of Health 
 
--Felix Mutati, former Energy Minister 
 
--Brian Chituwo, former Minister of Education, and of Health 
 
--Ng'andu Peter Mangande, former Minister of Finance and National 
Planning 
 
--Benny Tetamashimba, former Deputy Minister of Information and 
Broadcasting 
 
--Kabinga Pande, former Tourism Minister 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Although former Minister of Trade, Commerce and Industry 
Dipak Patel did not seek re-election, he was actively involved in 
MMD campaigning, and is rumored to be a front-runner for a 
cabinet-level position.  Many expect Mwanawasa to nominate him to 
Parliament.  Patel has told many that his "dream job is to be 
Minister of Finance."  Patel's vacant seat in the densely-populated 
Lusaka Central constituency had the largest number of candidates of 
any constituency in the country:  12.  The victor was Guy Scott, 
Secretary General of PF party, who defeated UDA's Nigenda Sipalo, a 
 
SIPDIS 
respected lawyer and human rights activist, MMD's Rose Zimba and 9 
other contenders. 
 
-------------------- 
QUESTIONABLE CHOICES 
-------------------- 
 
¶10. (SBU) The MMD slate was notable for three of its candidates who 
are under investigation for corruption (Ref B):  Michael Mabenga, 
MMD National Chairman and former Defense Minister; Katele Kalumba, 
MMD National Secretary and former Treasury Minister; and David 
Diangamo, former Deputy Secretary to the Cabinet responsible for 
Finance and Economic Development.  Both Mabenga and Kalumba were 
re-elected, in spite of their tarnished reputations. 
 
¶11.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  Although many of the same faces in the first 
Mwanawasa presidency may reappear in the new Cabinet, we expect to 
see some shuffling of portfolios as well as several new faces. 
 
MARTINEZ