VZCZCXYZ0009
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHLS #1350/01 2750729
ZNY CCCCC ZZH (CCY ADX2E9044 MSI0106 425A)
P 020729Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY LUSAKA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3257
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LUSAKA 001350 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y (ADDING CAPTION) 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2016 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ASEC ZA
SUBJECT: MWANAWASA LEADS IN PRESIDENTIAL RACE, BUT SLOW AND 
UNEVEN RELEASE OF RESULTS LESSENS VOTER CONFIDENCE 
 
REF: A. LUSAKA 1349 
 
     ¶B. LUSAKA 1340 
     ¶C. LUSAKA 1303 
     ¶D. LUSAKA 1302 
 
Classified By: DCM Andrew Passen, reasons 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Based on results reported from 80 percent of 
the constituencies around the country, President Mwanawasa of 
the ruling Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) enjoys a 
healthy lead over Patriotic Front (PF) and United Democratic 
Alliance (UDA) opponents.  The Electoral Commission of Zambia 
(ECZ) garnered praise from international observers (Ref A) 
and local civil society organizations for its handling of the 
election, but its management of the election results 
reporting process has been less efficient and less 
transparent, enabling opposition parties to raise doubts and 
reduce voter confidence in the vote counting and tabulation 
process.  These doubts fueled sometimes-violent protests by 
angry political party supporters, who alleged foul play by 
the ECZ.  The Embassy does not believe that the ECZ has 
engaged in any improper activity, but the Commission's 
failure to act quickly to address noted discrepancies and its 
uneven announcement of election results fuels the 
(mis)perception of wrongdoing and provides an opportunity 
that opposition leaders like Michael Sata are happy to 
exploit.   End summary. 
 
INITIAL RESULTS -- OPPOSITION AHEAD 
 
¶2. (SBU) Following national elections on September 28, the 
ECZ began to release official election results at a 20:00 
briefing on Friday September 29 for media, political party 
representatives, domestic monitors and international 
observers.  This and all subsequent ECZ briefings were 
broadcast live on local electronic media.  However, the 
Elections Results Center at Mulungushi Conference Center had 
no signboards listing results, nor did it make available 
written copies of results from constituencies.  The ECZ held 
a second briefing at 23:00 on September 29, and by this time 
had reported presidential race results from 26 of Zambia's 
150 constituencies.  The early results, predominantly from 
densely-populated urban Lusaka and Copperbelt Provinces, gave 
a strong lead to Patriotic Front (PF) candidate Michael Sata 
(who received close to 50 percent of reported votes in these 
constituencies, against 28 percent for President Mwanawasa of 
the MMD and 20 percent for the UDA's Hakainde Hichilema), 
raising the hopes of Sata's supporters.  These results were 
in line with Sata's strong base of support in urban Lusaka 
and the main cities and towns in the Copperbelt. 
 
INDEPENDENT PAPER - "RULING PARTY POISED TO WIN" 
 
¶3. (SBU) The September 30 edition of the independent daily 
The Post newspaper (Ref D) ran the banner headline "Levy 
Headed for Victory," and based its report on "MMD sources" 
who said that the party would win seats in at least 75 
National Assembly constituencies around the country.  The 
article also quoted Sata as saying he would not accept any 
results short of a PF victory and, "Tell Levy that if they 
play some monkey tricks, the consequences will be too ghastly 
for them to contemplate."  In the afternoon, angry PF 
supporters marched on the newspaper's downtown office to 
protest the story, but a strong police presence helped keep 
the crowds peaceful and in check.  The Post's front page also 
carried an article reporting that Sata asked the country's 
highest ranking civil servant, Secretary to the Cabinet 
Joshua Kanganja, to change the inauguration venue to a local 
stadium to enable more guests to be invited, and demanded 
that former president of Malawi Bakili Muluzi, the President 
of Taiwan, and Taiwan's Ambassador to Malawi be invited to 
the ceremony.  Sata also allegedly requested that Zimbabwean 
president Robert Mugabe be invited to be the guest speaker. 
 
RESULTS REPORTING SLOWS, QUESTION RAISED ABOUT COUNTS 
 
¶4. (SBU) At the 10:00 ECZ results briefing on Saturday, 
September 30, the ECZ reported results from only 6 more 
constituencies, including 4 from the Southern Province where 
Sata is very weak.  Sata's strong lead in the presidential 
race slipped slightly.  At this session, the ECZ began to 
provide one representative of each political party copies of 
the presidential race results by constituency.  Others from 
the media, civil society and international observer groups 
did not receive the written results, nor was any information 
posted for viewing at the Results Center.  Judge Mambilima 
announced that, due to concerns expressed by "stakeholders," 
the ECZ was basing its results reports on 
manually-transmitted counts rather than using the electronic 
results reporting system.  As a result, the reporting process 
would be much slower.  A representative from the MMD noted 
during a subsequent question and answer session that the PF 
representative at the stakeholders meeting was the only one 
who insisted on relying on the manual system, and other 
UNEVEN RELEASE OF RESULTS LESSENS VOTER CONFIDENCE 
 
political party representatives agreed to the demand. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Mumba Kapumba, a self-proclaimed "independent 
monitor" and local lawyer who represents at least one 
PF-affiliated politician (former ZANACO Managing Director 
Samuel Musonda) in a pending corruption case, raised a 
question about a significant discrepancy (of 20,000 votes) 
between the total number of votes cast for the President and 
for the National Assembly candidate in Munali, a heavily 
populated constituency in urban Lusaka.  Judge Mambilima 
appeared surprised to hear of such a large discrepancy, and 
told Kapumba that the only information she had was the final 
tallies provided by the local election officials who prepared 
the tally.  She said that the ECZ would follow up with those 
officials to clarify the reported problem. 
 
OPPOSITION LEAD SLIPS, AND SUPPORTERS CRY FOUL 
 
¶6. (SBU) At the 16:00 briefing on September 30, Judge 
Mambilima announced results from 16 additional 
constituencies, including in Eastern and Southern provinces, 
and Sata's lead was cut again.  During the question and 
answer session after the briefing, Judge Mambilima did not 
yet have an answer to the Munali discrepancy query.  Agitated 
Patriotic Front representatives cried foul play and accused 
an Electoral Commissioner, Noah Kalala, of being biased in 
favor of the ruling MMD party because he was related to 
"someone at State House."   Kalala denied this and the 
question and answer session began to spin out of control. 
Shouting PF representatives were escorted out of the briefing 
room by security guards and  ECZ officials quickly called an 
end to the briefing. Following this outburst, the ECZ set up 
"Query Liaison Desks" at the Results Center to receive and 
respond to questions and complaints, and Q&A sessions were 
discontinued at subsequent ECZ briefings.  Later on September 
30, Sata met with media representatives and alleged that the 
discrepancies between presidential and parliamentary counts 
at the constituency level were occurring on a wide scale, and 
that 400,000 votes for him had "been suppressed" or in some 
cases "swapped."   Based on this, he said he will demand a 
nationwide verification of votes before final election 
results are officially announced. 
 
MWANAWASA TAKES LEAD, PF SUPPORTERS PROTEST 
 
¶7. (U) The final results announcements on September 30 came 
at 22:00.  Judge Mambilima provided presidential vote tallies 
from 21 more constituencies.  Many of the constituencies were 
from Central Province, considered an MMD stronghold, and the 
cumulative tallies propelled Mwanawasa ahead of Sata and 
Hichilema. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The first ECZ briefing at 10:00 on Sunday October 1 
provided results from 25 more constituencies, primarily in 
areas where the PF is not strong, and the UDA's Hichilema 
moved into second place ahead of Sata, while Mwanawasa's lead 
grew larger.  However, the ECZ did not release official 
results of any National Assembly races and did not yet have a 
clarification of the Munali constituency results, further 
fueling PF supporters' suspicions of foul play.  PF political 
activists had gathered in large numbers in the area of 
Mulungushi Conference Center, and the police presence was 
beefed up accordingly.  After the morning briefing, the PF 
protestors clashed with police, who fired tear gas to 
disperse the crowds.  Crowds of PF supporters in Lusaka's 
downtown area and in high-density low-income residential 
areas also became violent and unruly. 
 
ECZ PROVIDES MORE RESULTS AND EXPLANATIONS 
 
¶9. (SBU) During the day on October 1, the ECZ published the 
presidential race tallies from 95 constituencies on its 
website.  However, at its election results briefings, it 
continued to provide written results only to political party 
representatives.  At the 16:00 briefing on October 1, Judge 
Mambilima announced results from an additional 26 
constituencies from outlying areas, improving President 
Mwanawasa's lead.  The cumulative results from 120 of 150 
constituencies, which represent 3,267,045 registered voters, 
stood as follows: of 2,300,407 votes cast (70 percent voter 
turnout), 2,261,308 were valid; 39,099 (1.7 percent) were 
rejected.  MMD candidate President Mwanawasa was in the lead 
with 952,650 votes (42.13 percent), followed by UDA candidate 
Hichilema with 641,109 votes (28.35 percent) and PF candidate 
Michael Sata with 615,429 votes (27.22 percent). 
 
¶10. (SBU) Judge Mambilima also referred to the outstanding 
question on discrepancies in Munali and said that the 
election officials at the constituency level had been 
checking through the tabulations and were almost finished. 
She said the ECZ hoped to provide clarifications soon, and 
also informed the audience that both the PF and UDA had 
already sent formal requests for the verification of election 
results to the ECZ.  She stated that the ECZ's policy was 
UNEVEN RELEASE OF RESULTS LESSENS VOTER CONFIDENCE 
 
that if parties came forward with specific questions and 
allegations, the ECZ would be pleased to follow up by asking 
officials at the constituency level to recheck the vote 
tabulation paperwork.  Judge Mambilima emphasized that the 
requests for clarification must be specific.  Due to the 
security problems experienced earlier on October 1, the ECZ 
decided not to hold another late-night briefing.  The next 
briefing is scheduled for 10:00 on October 2. 
 
COMMENT 
 
¶11. (C) The ECZ's preparations for and management of election 
results reporting was very weak, in contrast to its excellent 
handling of the voting process on election day.  Its failure 
to publish results online in a timely manner or post them at 
the Results Center for all accredited representatives to see 
and access easily did little to inspire confidence.  Further, 
the ECZ's failure to respond quickly to a report of a 
significant anomaly in the results gave the Patriotic Front 
an opportunity to cast doubts over the entire tabulation 
process, and to fuel existing skepticism about possible 
vote-rigging.  The Embassy does not believe that the ECZ has 
engaged in any wrongdoing and suspects the delays and 
unevenness in providing information and answers stems from 
taking time to follow up carefully and comprehensively.  The 
ECZ's relatively poor performance in reporting results has 
created an impression of possible interference in a 
well-managed election process, and--because impressions often 
matter more than facts or reality--caused the ECZ and the 
election to lose credibility among some Zambian voters. 
MARTINEZ