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OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHLO #7623/01 2991624
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O 261624Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHAH/AMEMBASSY ASHGABAT IMMEDIATE 0098
RUEHEK/AMEMBASSY BISHKEK IMMEDIATE 0142
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE IMMEDIATE
RUEHNT/AMEMBASSY TASHKENT IMMEDIATE 0223
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0069
INFO RUCNOSC/OSCE COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 0370

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LONDON 007623 
 
SIPDIS 
 
NOFORN 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/FO, SCA/CEN, SCA/A, EUR/ACE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2016 
TAGS: PREL ECON EAID ZK KZ KG TI TX UZ
SUBJECT: (C) CENTRAL ASIA:  SCA DAS FEIGENBAUM'S 
CONSULTATIONS WITH FCO AND DFID 
 
 
LONDON 00007623  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
Classified By: PolMinCouns Maura Connelly; reason 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum met in London 
October 23 with officials of the UK's Foreign and 
Commonwealth Office (FCO) and the Department for 
International Development (DFID), to exchange views on policy 
and programs in Central Asia.  Key policy points: 
 
- Both countries seek to bolster the sovereignty and 
independence of the five Central Asian states; policy and 
programs flow from that shared strategic goal. 
 
- The USG and UK are willing to support Kazakhstan's bid to 
chair the OSCE, but only when it meets the standards expected 
of a Chairman in Office.  Realistically, this cannot happen 
in time for a 2009 chairmanship.  The UK position tracks 
closely with the U.S. view, including on steering Kazakhstan 
toward 2011. 
 
- The USG wants the EU to maintain sanctions on Uzbekistan; 
London concurs but notes the Germans, in particular, have a 
different view. 
 
- In the run-up to November 2 elections in Kyrgyzstan, the 
USG and EU need to deliver parallel and consistent messages 
to both government and opposition that they must (a) avoid 
violence; (b) act legally; and (c) act constitutionally.  In 
addition to these parallel private messages, we should 
consider a public statement, depending on how the situation 
develops. 
 
- In Central Asia, DFID conducts programs only in the Kyrgyz 
Republic and Tajikistan, but seeks to increase its 
annual assistance from GBP 5.5 million and GBP 3.5 million 
respectively now to GBP 10 million each by 2010. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
(U) FCO 
------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Simon Smith, FCO Director for Russia, South Caucasus 
and Central Asia(RusSCCAD), chaired a two-hour 
meeting, focused mainly on strategy and policy but with 
participation from officials responsible for assistance 
programs.  Participants: 
 
USG:  SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum; SCA Senior Adviser for 
regional economic integration Robert Deutsch; EUR/ACE 
Director Tom Adams; EUR/ACE Deborah Klepp; Poloff (notetaker). 
 
UK:  Smith; RusSCCAD Deputy Head Andy Page; Central Asia 
Section Head Mike Welch; OSCE/Council of Europe Team Leader 
Lisa Whanstall; Caspian Energy Adviser Angus Miller; DFID 
Head of Europe and Central Asia Pauline Hayes. 
 
¶3.  (C) OVERVIEW:  Smith said Europe needs to sharpen its 
focus on Central Asia and to devote more resources to it. 
Germany's intention to do just that during its EU Presidency 
(first half of 2007) is welcome.  Feigenbaum provided an 
overview of U.S. strategy and policy, noting that his visit 
to London reflects the USG's desire to work 
more closely with key partners in Central Asia, but also to 
fold strategy/policy together with programs/budgets in an 
integrated consultation with key partners, notably the UK, 
Germany and Japan.  He rejected the mentality and 
vocabulary of the "Great Game" as an insult to Central 
Asians, reducing them to the "passive receptacles" of the 
strategies of outside powers.  The reality, he said, is the 
U.S. is focused on Central Asians themselves, bolstering 
their sovereignty and independence.  The five states, he 
said, are not the "objects of struggle" with third countries 
but the focus of U.S. policy.  Unfortunately, he admitted, 
others, including Russia, often appear to see relationships 
in Central Asia in competitive terms; he noted challenges in 
the Russian-dominated media space.  But, he said, the USG is 
succeeding in Central Asia with a multi-dimensional approach 
focused on security, economics, democracy and transnational 
issues, but also on issues that wedge across the seams of 
these baskets.  For example, rule of law is not just a 
democracy/governance issue; it also enhances economic and 
commercial development by creating predictability and 
transparency.  Likewise on customs and borders, which are 
both security and economic issues.  In addition to policy 
 
LONDON 00007623  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
consultations, Feigenbaum and Smith agreed U.S. and UK 
analysts should meet to think systematically about the 
region, including issues of political succession. 
 
¶4.  (C) KAZAKHSTAN:  Smith provided a parallel overview of UK 
policy.  UK priorities, he noted, often track closely with 
USG priorities.  Kazakhstan is a key UK focus.  Smith noted 
that Kazakhstan's President Nazarbayev is due to visit London 
November 21, and the UK has substantial investment and 
interests in that country.  Within the EU, he acknowledged 
that, while Germany broadly shares the UK strategy for 
Central Asia, it differs on specific issues, including 
Kazakhstan's bid to chair the OSCE in 2009: the UK agrees 
with the USG that Kazakhstan does not yet meet OSCE 
standards, whereas Germany supports the candidacy for 2009. 
Whanstall added that HMG wants the GOK formally to defer its 
candidacy from 2009 to a later date by the time of this 
year's OSCE ministerial on December 4; the UK will be 
lobbying EU members this week against the idea of postponing 
a decision on Kazakhstan's candidacy from December for an 
additional six months.  Page said the UK has advised 
Kazakhstan it would help itself with the OSCE by not being so 
close to Russia and so understanding of Uzbekistan's 
misbehavior. 
 
¶5.  (C) Feigenbaum stressed that the United States has a 
positive and multi-faceted relationship with Kazakhstan. 
Reflecting this, Nazarbayev's recent visit to Washington had 
gone very well.  Feigenbaum welcomed the UK position on 
Kazakhstan's OSCE bid, agreeing that postponement is a bad 
idea and arguing for a "clean decision" in December:  even 
the GOK, he said, had at various points expressed interest in 
a clean decision.  Neither the USG nor Kazakhstan are seeking 
confrontation. Washington is prepared to give technical 
support to Kazakhstan in meeting the standards by 2011, 
provided it is willing to implement commitments.  The way 
forward, he said, is for the GOK to commit to major reforms, 
notably the four reforms mentioned in Kazakhstani DFM Rakhat 
Aliyev's August speech to the Democratization Commission, and 
then to agree on implementation steps with OSCE.  Progress 
needs to be assessed according to a common OSCE standard, not 
a diverse array of individual national standards.  Noting 
that Nazarbayev plans to visit Brussels on December 3, 
Feigenbaum urged Europe to deliver a consistent message to 
the GOK about standards and 2011. 
 
¶6.  (C) UZBEKISTAN:  Smith said the UK has been strong in 
response to the brutal suppression of protests at 
Andijon, but Germany and others in the EU say the West should 
listen more, engage in more dialogue, explore new discussion 
mechanisms, and be less confrontational with the GOU.  He 
confessed to being puzzled that Germany is so keen to lift 
sanctions on Uzbekistan and so confident that Tashkent is 
ready to engage constructively, including on Andijon and 
human rights.  Welch noted Uzbekistan's charm offensive ahead 
of the EU's decision on renewing 
sanctions.  Regarding a possible Uzbekistan resolution at the 
UNGA Third Committee, he said HMG would prefer the U.S. draft 
it:  the UK  wants to keep its fingerprints off the draft. 
After the UK's high-profile role last year as the EU 
President, the UK would prefer not to be isolated within 
Europe as seeming to pursue a vendetta against Uzbekistan. 
 
¶7.  (C) Feigenbaum said the USG once had high hopes for 
Uzbekistan, but President Karimov's actions suggest he 
opposes the shared U.S./EU agenda of expanding markets, 
greater openness, and regional economic integration. 
Uzbekistan is systematically reducing the American presence 
in the country.  He expressed hope that the EU will maintain 
its sanctions on the GOU.  Washington would like the EU to 
lead one country-specific UNGA resolution on Central  Asia - 
Uzbekistan or Turkmenistan -- and at least to co-sponsor. 
Smith said the UK harbors little hope for major improvements 
during Karimov's tenure.  Feigenbaum added the USG remains 
committed to helping the people of Uzbekistan:  even now, we 
provide the equivalent of ten percent of the GOU's health 
budget and are vaccinating 700,000 children.  Adams said U.S. 
aid to Uzbekistan increased after 9/11 to $200 - 300 million 
per year, but is now down to $100 million and will fall to 
$20 - 25 million because the GOU is closing down the 
implementing organizations.  We are prohibited by law from 
giving military aid, but some cooperation is continuing on 
counter-narcotics and export controls, and we would spend 
 
LONDON 00007623  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
more money in Uzbekistan if the GOU did not stand in the way 
(e.g., on educational reform). 
 
¶8.  (C) KYRGYZSTAN:  Feigenbaum urged the UK to establish a 
diplomatic presence in Bishkek.  Hayes pointed out that DFID 
is present and donor coordination is excellent under World 
Bank leadership.  Looking ahead to the November 2 elections 
in Kyrgyzstan, Feigenbaum urged that Europe join the U.S. in 
delivering parallel messages to both government and 
opposition that they must avoid violence and act legally and 
constitutionally.  The message should be passed privately for 
now, but possibly stated publicly closer to November 2, 
depending on how events unfold.  Welch noted that the EU's 
current draft demarche focuses on the Kyrgyz government, not 
the opposition, but took the point about the need to speak to 
both sides. 
 
¶9.  (C) REGIONAL INTEGRATION:  Deutsch briefed on his 
activities in support of regional economic integration, 
including roads, aviation and electricity, as well as USG 
discussions with the International Financial Institutions and 
other interested parties.  A meeting co-sponsored by the USG 
and Kazakhstan on the margins of the World Bank/IMF meeting 
in Singapore, had discussed the subject at length, with Tajik 
and Kyrgyz participation, as well as UK and other 
participation; a follow-up meeting is planned at next 
spring's IFI meeting.  The USG sees exciting potential for 
Central Asia to integrate southward without detriment to its 
ties with China and Russia.  Electricity transmission to 
Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India seems like a natural fit: 
those countries have growing needs for electricity, while 
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are rich in hydro-power resources; 
as those resources are seasonal, oil/gas from Kazakhstan 
would need to be part of the package.  Ministers from 
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan will meet 
this week in Dushanbe to sign an agreement that will allow 
the World Bank and Asian Development Bank to fund a 
feasibility study leading to a decision next spring on the 
financial structure of the project. 
 
(U) DFID 
-------- 
 
¶10. (U) SCA DAS Evan Feigenbaum, SCA Senior Adviser Robert 
Deutsch, EUR/ACE Director Tom Adams, EUR/ACE Deborah Klepp, 
and Econoff (notetaker) met with DFID Head of Europe and 
Central Asia Pauline Hayes and her team of Central Asian 
development experts at DFID.  FCO Central Asia Section Head 
Mike Welch also attended. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Feigenbaum and Deutsch briefed on the rationale for 
Central/South Asia regional economic integration, including 
the State Department's bureaucratic reorganization. 
 
¶12. (SBU) Adams explained how the U.S. coordinates assistance 
and described USG assistance programs and priorities.  After 
September 11, Adams explained, Central Asia as a whole 
received approximately $600 million per year at the high 
point, with half of that assistance going to Uzbekistan. 
These numbers have decreased since then, with approximately 
$150 million to the region in FY06.  USG assistance to 
Uzbekistan is down to $25 million.  Adams described the 
difficulties of providing assistance in Uzbekistan, where the 
GOU is expelling U.S. assistance implementers.  Although 
Uzbekistan forced the International Republican Institute to 
leave, Karimov is still allowing the National Democratic 
Institute to operate because he likes the approach of its 
country representative, who  emphasizes the philosophy of 
democracy and not Uzbek shortcomings.  The USG has been 
successful in getting some funds to Uzbek NGOs via the 
Russian banking system. 
 
¶13. (C) Adams noted that the Kyrgyz Republic is likely to 
receive Millennium Challenge Threshold status at 
the November 9 MCC board meeting.  This would mean $15-20 
million in assistance over two years to improve governance 
indicators, focusing on judicial reform.  The threshold 
program will hopefully allow the Kyrgyz to make the reforms 
necessary to apply for MCC compact status, which could 
provide $300 million additional 
assistance over 4-5 years, based on the programs in Georgia 
and Armenia. 
 
 
LONDON 00007623  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶14. (C/NF) Hayes noted that in Central Asia DFID only has 
bilateral programs in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan, due 
to their high poverty levels.  She said DFID has put in a 
request to increase UK assistance there sharply in the next 
3-5 years, from GBP 5.5 million in the Kyrgyz Republic and 
GBP 3.5 million in Tajikistan in 2006-7 to GBP 10 million 
each by 2010.  DFID keys its bilateral development strategies 
to the World Bank Poverty Reduction Strategy Programs 
(PRSPs).  To reduce duplication, the UK is coordinating 
assistance and drafting a joint donors' country support 
strategy with the UN, World Bank, Asian Development Bank and 
the Swiss.  Germany, her staff added, declined to participate 
in the joint donor strategy process because it wants to 
explore a regional approach.  Hayes commented that DFID might 
consider working in Turkmenistan if the GOT changes its 
policies, but cautioned that DFID is trying to reduce the 
number of its programs overall. 
 
¶15. (C/NF) To inform the joint donor strategy, DFID 
commissioned a restricted-distribution report on "drivers of 
change" in the Kyrgyz Republic drafted by a knowledgeable 
expatriate not part of HMG.  The surprising findings were: 
(1) donors need to work more strongly outside the government, 
such as media and civil society; and (2) donors need to 
engage more broadly and communicate what they are doing, as 
there is the perception that some donors (especially the 
World Bank) are too close to the government.  DFID agreed to 
share the report in confidence with EUR/ACE and said they 
would like to do a similar report for Tajikistan in the 
December-January timeframe. 
 
¶16.  (U) DAS Feigenbaum cleared this message. 
 
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