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RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK IMMEDIATE 0811

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LONDON 007136 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR AF/S, WHA/CAN, EAP/ANP, EUR/AGS, EUR/NB, EUR/WE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM ZI UK
SUBJECT: (C) ZIMBABWE:  FCO CONVENES U.S., CANADA, 
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND 
 
REF: EMAIL STEVE HILL - RICK BELL 10/03/06 
 
Classified By: PolCouns Rick Mills; reason 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1.  (U) Action Request; please see paragraph 11. 
 
¶2.  (C)  SUMMARY:  FCO Zimbabwe Section convened a meeting 
with London-based political officers from U.S., Canada, 
Australia and New Zealand October 4.  The UK's priority on 
Zimbabwe is to ensure renewal of EU sanctions in February; it 
expects renewal but not without difficulty.  FCO believes an 
EU-tabled UNGA resolution would be desirable but more 
difficult to achieve, especially as prospects of passage in 
the General Assembly are not encouraging.  Anticipating that 
the UNSC may be less helpful on Zimbabwe next year, the UK 
may try to push for a country-specific discussion of Zimbabwe 
this year in the UNSC.  The UK may end up having to allow a 
senior Zimbabwean official (but not President Mugabe) to 
attend an EU-Africa summit in 2007, which Portugal is keen to 
arrange during its EU presidency.  FCO seeks closer 
coordination regarding policy and contingency planning. 
Poloff shared ref talking points, which were timely and much 
appreciated.  Questions emerged from the discussion, for 
which FCO would like more detailed information from USG 
(paragraphs 10-11).  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶3.  (C) FCO Zimbabwe Section Head St. John Gould and his team 
convened a meeting October 4 with political officers from the 
U.S. Embassy and the High Commissions of Canada, Australia 
and New Zealand.  Gould led the discussion, which covered the 
EU, the UN, "bringing forward change," contingency planning 
and coordination. 
 
¶4.  (C) EU:  Gould said: 
 
- The EU has slipped back to a division between northern 
countries supporting the UK's hard line and southern 
countries (notably France, Portugal and Italy) less willing 
to challenge the Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ). 
 
- The UK's priority is to ensure renewal of EU sanctions in 
February 2007.  Gould "would be surprised" if sanctions were 
not renewed.  However, as renewal requires unanimity among 
the 25 member states, Gould anticipated that France and 
Portugal would both cause difficulties:  France wants to host 
a Franco-African Summit in February and will likely press for 
an exception to the travel ban so that President Mugabe can 
attend.  Portugal is keen to arrange an EU-Africa Summit 
during its EU presidency (second half of 2007; Germany, which 
will have the presidency the first half of the year, is 
"solidly" with the UK).  Gould allowed that the UK might end 
up having to accept a compromise whereby a senior GOZ 
official subject to the travel ban (such as the Foreign 
Minister) would be allowed to represent Mugabe. 
 
- The UK would like the October 16 GAERC to result in 
"conclusions" by the EU Foreign Ministers, but France is 
objecting. 
 
¶5.  (C) EU - UNGA:  London would like the EU to table an UNGA 
resolution specifically on Zimbabwe, referencing the 
Tibaijuka report and the resolution of the African Commission 
on Human and Peoples' Rights.  However, France, Portugal, 
Italy and Austria are skeptical, partly because the last such 
draft in 2004 was blocked by a "no-action" motion.  The EU's 
October 10 meeting will be "the last chance" to get agreement 
on such a resolution this year.  Gould opined that it would 
be easier for the EU to support a draft tabled by someone 
else. 
 
¶6.  (C) UN:  UNSYG Annan has "drawn a blank" on Zimbabwe and 
his term is nearly up, so Gould expects nothing from the UN 
Secretariat in the near term.  The UNSC's composition in 2007 
 
SIPDIS 
suggests that it will become harder to get action against the 
GOZ, so the UK is considering trying for a country-specific 
discussion of Zimbabwe this year in the UNSC.  Gould admitted 
it was unlikely that any action (PRST or Resolution) would 
come out of it.  Gould was heartened that Tanzania spoke out 
on Zimbabwe in the Security Council, and pleased that 
President Bush had met with President Kikwete, which should 
bolster the latter's resolve. 
 
LONDON 00007136  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C) "BRINGING FORWARD CHANGE":  Gould said that FCO 
Minister for Africa Lord Triesman is keen to find ways to 
hasten change in Zimbabwe rather than standing helplessly by 
until Mugabe departs the scene.  This is easier said than 
done, however, Gould acknowledged: 
 
- The opposition and civil society are divided, and the GOZ 
has shown it is willing and able to crush dissent. 
Nonetheless, Harare missions should keep coordinating support 
for the most strategic groups. 
 
- South Africa is potentially key, but has been 
disappointingly unwilling to challenge Mugabe.  It does seem 
to be more willing lately to talk about long-term change in 
Zimbabwe, but not to take action while Mugabe is in power. 
 
- Within the ZANU-PF regime, dissatisfaction is increasing, 
but Mugabe is a master at fending off challenges.  The UK is 
contemplating having its ambassador tell Mugabe there is no 
chance of a policy change while he remains in office, but has 
not/not reached a decision on this. 
 
¶8.  (C) CONTINGENCY PLANNING AND COORDINATION:  Gould 
emphasized the importance of close coordination on policy and 
contingency planning, in capitals as well as in the field. 
(He was not/not implying that such coordination is lacking in 
the field, his point was that capitals should be more tightly 
lashed up as well.)  The UK has up to 20,000 nationals in 
Zimbabwe, he noted, and experience elsewhere has shown that 
if one western country takes drastic action in a 
deteriorating situation, that tends to create a chain 
reaction.  Contingency planning for a worst-case scenario 
should be very discreet so as not to contribute to 
instability.  One specific item to watch, according to Gould, 
is Air Zimbabwe's safety:  the company is "cutting corners" 
on spare parts. 
 
¶9.  (C) Among ourselves, we should have a clear understanding 
of what reforms would enable us to re-engage fully with the 
GOZ, and what levers are available to us, Gould said.  The UK 
will meet at officials level on October 6, then put a 
proposal to ministers.  It will then want to consult with the 
USG.  Gould said the FCO is thinking of inviting U.S., 
Canadian, Australian and New Zealand officials who cover 
Southern Africa in their respective capitals to come to 
London for further consultations. 
 
¶10.  (C) FCO QUERIES:  Poloff shared ref points, which were 
much appreciated.  Based on the discussion, FCO would like 
more information from the USG on the following: 
 
- USG thoughts on an UNGA resolution; 
 
- Details of USG engagement with SADC (especially military); 
 
- USG engagement with China regarding Zimbabwe; 
 
- USG assessment of coordination regarding contingency 
planning. 
 
¶11.  (U) Action Requested:  We would be grateful for 
responses to the queries in paragraph 10 that we can pass to 
FCO. 
 
Visit London's Classified Website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/london/index. cfm 
Tuttle