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DE RUEHLO #7078/01 2751604
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O 021604Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY LONDON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9474
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS LONDON 007078 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/UBI, INR/EU 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR UK
SUBJECT: (SBU)  BLAIR, BROWN BOTH STRONGER AFTER LABOUR 
CONFERENCE 
 
REF: LONDON 6491 
 
¶1.   (SBU)  SUMMARY:  Prime Minister Tony Blair and 
Chancellor Gordon Brown both emerged stronger from the Labour 
Party's annual conference (September 24-28) in Manchester. 
It was Blair's last as Prime Minister and party leader and 
his speech was a "magnificent valedictory," as guest-speaker 
former President Clinton called it.  Brown gave a solid - if 
not particularly inspiring - speech that consolidated his 
position as front-runner to succeed Blair but did not 
preclude his facing a serious challenge for the top job.  His 
performance was overshadowed by press reports that the PM's 
wife Cherie Blair had been overheard saying he lied when he 
characterized working for Blair as a "privilege."  She denied 
it, and her husband defused that issue with an effective 
joke. 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  SUMMARY CONTINUED:  By the end of the conference, 
Deputy Prime Minister John Prescott had endorsed Brown for 
leader, as had Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett and the 
Blairite Environment Secretary David Miliband.  Prescott also 
made clear he will stand down when his boss does.  Three 
candidates have announced their intention to run for Deputy 
Leader:  Northern Ireland and Wales Secretary Peter Hain, 
Constitutional Affairs Minister Harriet Harman, and Jon 
Cruddas MP.  The only declared challenger to Brown for the 
top job is John McDonnell MP, a left-winger who may be able 
to garner the necessary support of at least 44 MPs in order 
to run, but is seen as having no chance of winning.  If a 
Cabinet heavyweight decides to take on Brown, current 
thinking is that it will most likely be Home Secretary John 
Reid or Education Secretary Alan Johnson.  Controversial 
issues not addressed at the conference include replacement of 
the Trident nuclear deterrent and a specific date for the 
departure of Blair, who has said he will go by early 
September 2007 at the latest (reftel).  END SUMMARY. 
 
(U)  Blair Leaves Them Wanting More 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U)  Prime Minister Tony Blair gave a brilliant 
performance September 26 in his final speech to the annual 
Labour Party conference.  He thanked the party, recalling its 
achievements in power since 1997 which, he said, had made 
"progressive" politics the norm in the UK.  He stressed that 
Labour must focus on the priorities of all the British 
people, even those who are already prosperous.  Above all, he 
urged the party to show it has the courage to govern and not 
go back to the "ridiculous dilemma between principle and 
power" that led it to "revel in its irrelevance" in the 
1980's.  The only legacy he ever cared about was for Labour 
to win the next general election.  He wanted to be the 
"first" Labour leader to win three elections in a row, not 
the only one.  While leadership is difficult, he said the 
British people will sometimes forgive wrong decisions but 
they will not forgive failing to decide.  "They will lose 
faith in us only if we lose faith in ourselves."  Blair urged 
the party to "get after" the opposition Conservatives, 
drawing a roar when he said "if we can't take this lot apart" 
we do not belong in politics. 
 
¶4.  (U)  The PM sought "to heal" the divisions in the party 
sparked by last month's attempt to force him to set a date 
for departure from office, saying New Labour and the three 
successive terms would not have been possible without Gordon 
Brown, "a remarkable man and a remarkable servant of this 
country."  But he stopped short of endorsing Brown as his 
successor.  Blair warned that today's challenges of 
globalization "dwarf" the problems of 1997.  The goal must be 
to reconcile openness and liberty with security.  Praising 
British troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, he said withdrawing 
them would be a "craven surrender" that would "put our future 
in deepest peril."  Accusations that terrorism is a result of 
faulty foreign policy are a "wretched capitulation to the 
enemy."  The war on terror cannot be won by force alone, 
Blair acknowledged, and he pledged to dedicate himself until 
he leaves office to "advancing peace between Israel and 
Palestine."  He said it can be "hard to be America's 
strongest ally" and Europe can be a "headache," but big 
problems cannot be solved without America and Europe.  He 
also said the crisis in Sudan cannot stand.  His parting 
words: "You're the future now, make the most of it." 
 
(SBU) Brown Helps Himself 
------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Gordon Brown helped himself with a solid speech 
September 25 that ticked a lot of boxes even if it failed to 
inspire.  He praised Tony Blair, expressed regret for the 
 
differences they have had, mentioned virtually all his 
Cabinet colleagues by name, highlighted his record of 
devolving governmental authority, and said Parliament should 
have the final say on such issues as war and peace.  He 
denounced anti-Americanism, affirmed the need for global 
cooperation against terrorism, indicated willingness to 
consider extending the period of detention without charge for 
terrorism suspects "if necessary," and stressed individual 
responsibility and the need to obey the rules.  He pledged to 
raise the minimum wage and enforce it, double investment in 
public housing and raise spending on students in state 
schools.  He urged creation of a GBS20 billion global fund to 
help developing countries implement cleaner energy.  Knowing 
that he needed to give the public a clearer sense of who he 
is, the Chancellor spoke of the profound influence his 
parents had on him, depicting himself as "quite a private 
person" committed to performance rather than image.  He was 
"proud to be Scottish and British" and "would relish the 
opportunity to take on David Cameron and the Conservative 
Party."  Brown's solid but not particularly inspiring 
performance may not preclude a leadership challenge by a 
party heavyweight, because many in the Labour rank and file 
and the UK public would welcome a mature airing of competing 
visions for the post-Blair future.  As of now, Brown is the 
clear favorite even if challenged. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  The Chancellor's address was upstaged by a 
reporter's claim to have overheard Cherie Blair remark 
"that's a lie" when Brown said in his speech that it had been 
a "privilege" to work with her husband.  She flatly denied 
making the remark, but the media made hay of it given her 
poor relations with Brown over the years.  The Prime Minister 
cleverly defused this issue in his speech the next day by 
joking "at least I don't have to worry about her running off 
with the bloke next door."  (NOTE:  The Browns live next door 
to the Blairs on Downing Street.  END NOTE.) 
 
(U) Clinton Praises Blair and Brown 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶7.  (U)  Former President Bill Clinton was the featured guest 
speaker at the conference.  In his September 27 address, he 
said the Labour government had been a "stunning success" for 
Britain and the world.  As expected, he had warm words for 
Blair, whose moving speech he called a "magnificent 
valedictory."  He also praised Gordon Brown's "brilliant 
economic leadership."   He noted that the UK has shown it is 
possible to implement Kyoto environmental commitments in a 
way that does not damage the economy but actually creates new 
sources of employment.  The former President urged his 
audience to be proud of Labour's achievements in office, not 
allow them to be taken for granted, and always embrace 
change, making clear to the British public that the 
"progressive" party is the natural "agent of change" in the 
UK. 
 
(U) Support for Brown Grows 
--------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (U)  Closing the conference, Deputy Prime Minister and 
Deputy Party Leader John Prescott endorsed Brown as the next 
leader.  Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett had done so 
earlier in the week.  Environment Secretary David Miliband - 
a staunch Blairite who calls himself part of the "second 
generation of New Labour" and is seen as a potential future 
Prime Minister - came out for Brown even before the 
conference.  Prescott also made clear he intends to stand 
down when Blair resigns, so the party will hold elections for 
both Leader and Deputy Leader. 
 
(U) Candidates, Actual and Potential 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  So far, only Brown and John McDonnell MP have 
declared their intention to run for the leadership when Blair 
steps down.  When there is a vacancy, a valid nomination 
requires the support of 12.5 percent of Labour MPs; that 
currently puts the magic number at either 44 or 45, depending 
on rounding.  McDonnell, a left-winger, may be able to muster 
that many signatures but is given no chance of actually 
winning.  A more serious challenge to Brown could come from a 
Cabinet heavyweight.  The most mentioned possibilities are 
Home Secretary John Reid, a staunch Blairite, and Education 
Secretary Alan Johnson, a rising star with strong union 
 
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roots.  Both are keeping their options open. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The field contending for Deputy Leader is more 
crowded:  Secretary of State for Northern Ireland and for 
Wales Peter Hain has announced he will stand; so have 
 
Constitutional Affairs minister Harriet Harman and Jon 
Cruddas MP.  Cruddas, a former Blair aide, wants to abolish 
the post of Deputy Prime Minister and combine the jobs of 
Deputy Leader and Party Chairman.  Johnson said earlier this 
year that he intended to run for Deputy Leader when the job 
became vacant.  Leader of the House of Commons Jack Straw is 
also believed to be interested. 
 
(U) Controversies Avoided 
------------------------- 
 
¶11.  (U) Some in the party were irked that the Conference 
Arrangements Committee rejected attempts to place on the 
agenda debates about the timing of Blair's departure and 
about whether or not to replace the UK's Trident nuclear 
deterrent.  On Trident, Blair has promised a decision by the 
end of this year.  The committee ruled that the matter was 
not suitable for the conference agenda because it had already 
been discussed fully by the national policy forum.   Three 
senior figures, Hain, Harman and Secretary of State for 
International Development Hilary Benn, however, all said 
there still needs to be a full public debate - in the 
country, if not at the conference. 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  COMMENT:  We assess that Blair's masterful speech 
will help him retain authority despite the knowledge that his 
days in office are numbered.  Some find it hard to imagine 
him reprising this performance at the spring conference in 
February, but we do not find that argument compelling:  as 
long as he remains Prime Minister, he will be prominently in 
the public eye and will continue to make eloquent speeches; 
his final farewell may be even more emotional than this one. 
Blair has said he will go by early September 2007, but May is 
seen as a key time:  he will reach the ten-year mark in 
office on May 2; elections will be held in Scotland and Wales 
on May 3 for devolved legislatures and in England for local 
councils.  Labour is likely to get hammered no matter who 
leads the party; there is much to be said for letting the 
outgoing leader remain in power until after the elections to 
take the blame rather than spoiling his successor's start. 
 
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