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DE RUEHLI #2383/01 2961616
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FM AMEMBASSY LISBON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5287
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LISBON 002383 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EAID CU PO
SUBJECT: PORTUGAL:  WHA DAS MADISON DISCUSSES CUBA 
 
LISBON 00002383  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: POL CHIEF TROY FITRELL, REASONS 1.4 (B,D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  During WHA DAS Madison's visit, Portuguese 
officials stressed a desire to support deeper coordination 
between the U.S. and EU on Cuba policy.  Portugal's new 
interest in Cuba is largely due to its upcoming EU 
Presidency, but also is affected by its desire to broaden the 
trans-Atlantic dialogue.  Portuguese FM Amado is not expected 
to raise Cuba during his meeting with Secretary Rice October 
24 but would be prepared to discuss the issue should the 
Secretary wish to do so.  End summary. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
Coordinating Policies 
--------------------- 
¶2. (U) WHA DAS Kirsten Madison explored U.S., Portuguese, and 
European policies on Cuba during meetings with Portuguese 
officials in Lisbon October 20.  Portuguese interlocutors 
agreed that U.S. and European capitals need to coordinate 
Cuba policies closely to effect a safer and more efficient 
transition to democracy in Cuba.  Madison made individual 
calls upon officials in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
(MFA), the Prime Minister's Office, and the Portuguese 
Institute for Development (IPAD).  She discussed specific 
ways countries could express solidarity with the Cuban people 
and help to create a context in which democratic change can 
take place.  Madison also highlighted current U.S. planning 
to respond positively and concretely to the development of a 
transition government in Cuba.  Madison underscored the need 
for countries to engage on behalf of political prisoners, 
human rights activists, and labor activists. 
 
¶3. (C) The Foreign Minister's Diplomatic Advisor Paulo 
Lourenco agreed that, whenever political transition in Cuba 
occurs, the U.S. and European Union (EU) need to have 
integrated policy objectives and specific plans in place to 
assist the process.  Lourenco lamented that European capitals 
and Washington have had little discourse to date on this 
subject and welcomed Madison's outreach efforts.  Lourenco 
suggested that "trans-Atlantic dialogue" should be 
interpreted more widely, such that the U.S. and Europeans 
also engage regional powers in the Americas on the issue. 
Lourenco opined that, while wider engagement may make the 
process move more slowly, the end result would be worth the 
effort. 
 
¶4. (C) Regarding the appropriate regional powers, Lourenco 
noted that Brazil would be an ideal interlocutor.  Lourenco 
continued that Brazilian President Lula da Silva is a natural 
leader in the hemisphere, but was "losing traction" to 
Venezuela's Hugo Chavez.  Further engagement with Lula, he 
suggested, would be in the U.S. interest.  Madison noted that 
the U.S. sees leadership from Latin America on Cuba as 
essential and views Brazil as key to mobilizing hemispheric 
support for a democratic transition. 
 
¶5. (C) Lourenco and one of the Prime Minister's Diplomatic 
Advisors, Jose Frederico Ludovice, noted that the 
Ibero-American Summit (IAS) November 5-6 in Uruguay will 
demonstrate the commitment of various nations to human rights 
issues in Cuba.  The MFA's Director for South and Central 
American Affairs Helena Coutinho noted that the IAS's 
Uruguayan hosts were eager to push for more open discussion 
of Cuba, but may be prevented from doing so by other states. 
Many nations, Coutinho stated, talk tough behind closed doors 
but are reluctant to criticize the Cuban regime publicly. 
 
¶6. (C) Ludovice related that much of the EU's policy on Cuba 
was driven by Spain and that Portugal would coordinate its 
policies and action closely with its Iberian neighbor.  He 
indicated that Portugal would seek to include Cuba on the 
list of issues for its upcoming bilateral consultations with 
Spain.  It was important, Ludovice stated, that we not be 
seen as driving any efforts towards regime change.  Lourenco 
added that Italy may participate in the IAS, giving Portugal 
and Spain another ally. 
 
Portugal's Optic on Cuba 
------------------------ 
¶7. (C) Lourenco and Coutinho each noted that they do not 
expect violence in the near-term in Cuba, but that policies 
should strive to encourage stability rather than sudden, 
violent change.  Lourenco in particular noted the need to 
protect the institutions that Cuba has, to avoid creating a 
vacuum. 
 
¶8. (C) Coutinho explained that Portugal has a two-track 
approach with Cuba.  The Portuguese are committed to widening 
and deepening contacts with Cuba's civil society, but also 
engages in a dialogue with Cuban officials.  That dialogue, 
Coutinho was careful to note, always includes the need to 
free political prisoners and to halt acts of repudiation 
against human rights activists.  Furthermore, Coutinho said 
 
LISBON 00002383  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
that Portuguese officials stress that continued dialogue is 
contingent upon improvement in these areas. 
 
A Euro Response 
--------------- 
¶9. (C) Coutinho noted that there is a clear sign of change 
forthcoming in Cuba and that the EU is preparing to assist 
the transition.  The 25 current members of the EU, she said, 
are attempting to achieve consensus on concrete measures to 
respond to various scenarios. 
 
¶10. (C) IPAD's Ines Rosa, however, told us that any EU 
assistance proposal would be generated by Commission staff 
resident in Havana and would be distributed to EU capitals 
for comment.  As no such proposal has yet arrived in Lisbon 
for her agency's approval, Rosa opined that any project 
discussions must be at a very early stage. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶11. (C) The MFA has traditionally stayed away from Cuba 
issues, deferring instead to a consensus forged with other EU 
members.  In the last several weeks, however, the MFA's 
leaders have made several overtures to us on the need to plan 
for a coordinated response to Cuba's future.  This change in 
approach is likely due to Portugal's upcoming EU Presidency, 
but may also be due in part to Portugal's desire to broaden 
the trans-Atlantic dialogue to regional Latin American powers 
such as Brazil.  Portuguese Foreign Minister Luis Amado is 
not expected to raise Cuba during his October 24 call on 
Secretary Rice, but will be prepared to discuss the subject 
 
SIPDIS 
if it is the Secretary's wish. 
O'Neal