VZCZCXRO5963
OO RUEHDBU RUEHIK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBUL #4722/01 2741215
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 011215Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY KABUL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3165
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/OSD WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMCSUU/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFIUU/JICCENT MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFIUU/COMSOCCENT MACDILL AFB FL
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 3111
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO 3246
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 6572
RUEHUNV/USMISSION UNVIE VIENNA 1921

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KABUL 004722 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR SCA/FO, SCA/A, S/CR, SCA/PAB, S/CT, EUR/RPM 
STATE PASS TO USAID FOR AID/ANE, AID/DCHA/DG 
NSC FOR AHARRIMAN 
OSD FOR BREZINSKI 
CENTCOM FOR CG CFC-A, CG CJTF-76, AND POLAD 
USNATO FOR AMBASSADOR NULAND 
REL NATO/ISAF 
RELEASABLE TO NATO/AUST/NZ/ISAF 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958 N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON PARM AORD NATO ETRD EINV KZ
AF 
 REF: Almaty 3296 
SUBJECT: KAZAKH DELEGATION IS ALL BUSINESS IN EXAMINING PRT 
OPTIONS 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY.  A high-level Kazakhstani delegation, led 
by Deputy Foreign Minister Abdrakhmanov and dominated by 
trade, investment and energy officials, visited Afghanistan 
September 24-28, to, among other things, examine the 
possibility of leading or participating in a Provincial 
Reconstruction Team (PRT).  The visit included meetings 
with several Afghan ministers, briefings and consultations 
at ISAF and CFC-A HQs, and a visit to the Norwegian-led PRT 
in the northern province of Faryab. Based on comments made 
by Kazakhs during the visit, we believe their primary 
objective is to establish a low cost toehold in 
Afghanistan.   We will be pleasantly surprised if the 
Kazakhs agree to establish and lead a new PRT, but think it 
is more likely that they will offer to augment an existing 
PRT, perhaps with construction engineers and/or 
agricultural specialists.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ISAF: Strong steer to Sari Pul 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) At ISAF HQ, the delegation received a detailed 
briefing on the structure and functions of PRTs, as well as 
an intelligence assessment on the security situation in the 
north of Afghanistan, where Kazakhstan indicated an 
interest in establishing a PRT or participating in an 
existing one.  The ISAF briefer noted that the north of 
Afghanistan enjoyed a relatively permissive security 
environment.  In most parts, the threat was assessed as 
"low," and in no area was it greater than "medium."  ISAF 
Chief Engineer Brigadier General Dickie Davis (UK), who is 
responsible for ISAF PRT policy, warmly welcomed 
Kazakhstan's interest in PRTs and strongly recommended that 
it consider setting up a PRT in the quiet, but relatively 
neglected and underdeveloped northern province of Sari Pul, 
one of four provinces currently covered by the over- 
extended Swedish-led PRT in Mazar-e-Sharif.  Davis' staff 
subsequently provided the delegation with a 12-page 
unclassified assessment of Sari Pul. 
 
SIPDIS 
 
¶3. (SBU) Davis argued against the Kazakhs establishing a 
PRT in Jawzjan province (another northern province 
currently covered by PRT Mazar-e-Sharif), noting that it 
was important that Jawzjan and Balkh provinces -- dominated 
by opposing warlords -- be covered by a single PRT. 
Otherwise, ISAF would lose the ability to successfully stem 
inter-factional fighting.  Davis emphasized that it made 
"no military sense" to split Jawzjan from Balkh.  However, 
in the question and answer period, it was clear that the 
Kazakh delegation -- dominated by trade, investment and 
energy officials -- found Jawzjan a more attractive 
possibility for a PRT, given the border province's stronger 
economic base, including proven oil reserves. 
 
CFC-A: Not something to be entered into lightly 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶4. (SBU) At CFC-A, Deputy Commander Major General Wilson 
(UK) stressed that leading a PRT was a significant (and 
expensive) undertaking.  He estimated that it cost $5-10 
million to set up a PRT and another $2-5 million per year 
to keep it running.  In order to be effective, a PRT also 
had to be able to provide a significant amount of money to 
spend on reconstruction and development assistance to the 
 
KABUL 00004722  002 OF 003 
 
 
local area.  He noted that several countries had come to 
CFC-A in the past to express an interest in leading a PRT, 
only to find out that it was a bigger challenge than they 
had realized.  Wilson also stressed the importance of a PRT 
including a significant number of police officers to help 
mentor and train the police in its province. 
 
PRT Maimana: An offer of construction engineers 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶5. (SBU) At the Norwegian-led Maimana PRT in the northern 
province of Faryab, the delegation had the opportunity to 
see first-hand what a well-run, medium-size PRT (about 200 
total members) based in a relatively secure area looks like 
and how it operates.  (Note:  The Finnish Government has 
invested 2.1 million dollars in the past two years on 
developing the provincial justice sector, including the 
construction of eleven police stations and training for 
local officials.  The GOF is in the process of building a 
women?s prison. More details will be provided septel. End 
Note).  Questions from the Kazakhs focused on practical 
issues, like the annual running costs of the PRT (estimated 
at $10-15 million, including all salaries) and the source 
of PRT's logistic support.  In response to the PRT 
commander's remark that improving secondary roads in the 
province required more attention, Deputy Foreign Minister 
Abdrakhmanov wondered what the per-kilometer cost of roads 
was in the province and asked whether the PRT could 
accommodate a group of Kazakh engineers and their road- 
building equipment.  The PRT commander replied that while 
there was no extra room on the current PRT compound, the 
Kazakh engineers and equipment would be "very welcome" in 
the new, larger PRT compound, currently under construction 
next to the Maimana air strip and scheduled for completion 
next spring.  Upon boarding the plane to return to Kabul, 
members of the delegation were overheard commenting to each 
other, that since they had to find "something" to 
contribute to the ISAF/Coalition mission, perhaps it might 
be providing just a couple of individuals to a PRT, "like 
the Finns have done" in Maimana. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Kazakhstan will almost certainly make some kind of 
offer in support of the ISAF/Coalition mission here in 
Afghanistan.  That decision, driven by political 
imperative, appears to have already been made; the only 
question is how extensive the offer will be.  We will be 
pleasantly surprised if the Kazakhs agree to establish and 
lead a new PRT, but think it is more likely that they will 
offer to augment an existing PRT, perhaps with construction 
engineers and/or agricultural specialists.  The Kazakhs are 
clearly examining the options here through economic lenses 
and weighing the costs of establishing a PRT against the 
potential benefits it might yield in business deals.  Were 
the oil-rich and well-connected border province of Jawzjan 
on offer for a PRT, Kazakhistan might be more tempted to 
take the plunge, given the potential spin-off opportunities 
it could create for Kazakh business interests.  They seemed 
to find Sari Pul -- a economic back-water that has no 
developed provincial center and lies far off the ring road 
? a far less attractive alternative. 
 
KABUL 00004722  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
NORLAND