VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHGL #1002/01 2981618
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251618Z OCT 06
FM AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8625
INFO RUEHQT/AMEMBASSY QUITO 9701
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA 3321
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 2905
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ 0945

UNCLAS GUAYAQUIL 001002 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE, SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
SUBJECT: GUAYAQUIL: NOBOA AND PRIAN WIN BIG, SOCIAL CHRISTIAN'S TAKE 
A HIT 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Conservative, populist presidential candidate 
Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN) carried Guayas province in the first round 
elections with 36 percent of the vote, in line with the 
disproportionate strength he showed in all three coastal provinces. 
The Guayaquil based Social Christian Party (PSC) took a hit in its 
coastal stronghold.  While Presidential candidate Cynthia Viteri's 
strong third place finish accounted for a big chunk of her national 
vote tally, but PRIAN soundly displaced the PSC as the leading party 
in the province.  The PSC party is under pressure to renovate, as 
party boss Leon Febres Cordero faces recrimination from younger 
leaders.  The Christian Democratic Union (UDC) is aggressively 
wooing disenchanted PSC politicians.  However, in the near term we 
expect that the wily PSC leadership will be able to work with Noboa 
to preserve enough PSC perquisites to keep the party from imploding. 
 Guayaquil's economic and political elite are rallying around Noboa, 
although they recognize his political and personal flaws.  End 
Summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Representing 25 percent of the national electorate, Guayas 
province has always played a strategic role in national elections. 
Noboa dominated the 2002 second round presidential elections in 
Guayas, securing 67 percent of the votes in this pro-business part 
of the country. 
 
First Round Blow to the PSC 
---------- 
¶3.  (U) In the first round of presidential voting on October 15, 
Noboa easily carried Guayas province with 36 percent of the vote (up 
from 24 percent in the 2002 first round) compared to almost 27 
percent nationally.  Correa and Viteri garnered 17 percent and 16 
percent, respectively.  The PSC's tally was a full ten percent lower 
than its 2002 tally, when the PSC won 26 percent of the Guayas first 
round vote. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) On election night, Consulate election observers 
participating in the OAS observation mission gathered a sample of 
almost 10,000 votes from five different voting locations around 
Guayaquil.  The sample confirmed the Noboa victory immediately after 
the close of the polls, prior to the crash of the national electoral 
tribunal's contracted preliminary vote count. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Viteri's gender apparently played a role in the election. 
In our sample, 24 percent of female voters in Guayas voted for 
Viteri, while only 18 percent of male voters sided with her.  No 
other candidate's votes were heavily divided by the gender of the 
voter. Whether her gender gained her women's votes or just lost her 
men's votes isn't entirely clear, but anecdotally we hear that 
Viteri's hard luck story was inspirational to working class women. 
 
Social Christian Party floundering 
---------- 
¶6.  (SBU) Long the dominant force in Guayaquil, the PSC scored a 
weak second place to PRIAN.  Weeks prior to the election, we 
reported that the PSC was providing only modest support for Viteri 
while Febres Cordero focused on the congressional races.  That 
strategy appears to have failed.  With 78 percent of the 
congressional vote counted in Guayas, PRIAN has 37 percent of the 
votes.   The PSC is currently showing only 24 percent.  Voters can 
vote both party slate and for individuals.  On the individual side, 
Noboa's wife Annabella Azin Arce leads the field, with exiled former 
president Bucaram's Partido Roldisista Ecuatoriano (PRE) candidates 
holding second and third places.  Febres Cordero is in fourth place. 
 Guayas holds 18 of the 100 congressional seats. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Many Guayaquilenos we speak with are quietly satisfied with 
the PSC's poor showing and hope that it marks Febres Cordero's 
comeuppance.  It is clear that the PSC is divided and many younger 
leaders are frustrated.  On election day, PSC leaders gathered at 
the home of Leon Febres Cordero--presidential candidate Viteri 
stayed at home with family and confidants to watch the election 
results.  In contrast with Correa and Noboa's very visible 
supporters, PSC representatives were largely absent from the polls 
on election day.  We have also heard that the Christian Democratic 
Union Party (UDC) is trying to lure popular Guayaquil mayor Jaime 
Nebot and others away from the PSC by offering its political base in 
the highlands region.  In a recent conversation with the Consul 
General, Nebot was characteristically circumspect about his own 
political future.  He made a point of praising Viteri's campaign and 
her post-electoral "dignity," a common refrain here, where Viteri's 
standing has risen.  Most are blaming the party rather than Viteri 
for her poor showing. 
 
Comment 
---------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Noboa, his wife and all of his inner circle hail from 
 
Guayaquil, and we expect him to easily win Guayas province with the 
majority of the PSC vote going to him in the second round.  Noboa 
values loyalty and delegates poorly, so a Noboa cabinet would 
probably be made up of high level Noboa employees--perhaps from some 
of his overseas operations--as well as some old-school PSC members. 
The political and economic elite from the coast are relieved by 
Noboa's first round win and are confident - perhaps overly so - that 
he will defeat Correa in the second round.  Although they are 
familiar with Noboa's weaknesses, they will provide strong support 
in the coming weeks in an all-out effort to beat Correa. 
 
Griffiths