VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHEG #6196/01 2761501
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 031501Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1812
INFO RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK 0152
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 1052
RUENAAA/SECNAV WASHDC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE WASHDC

UNCLAS CAIRO 006196 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ELA 
ALSO FOR NEA/RA, 
AMMAN FOR WHITTLESEY 
CA/OCS-RICHTER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO KSTH KFLU ECON PREL WHO EG
SUBJECT: AVIAN FLU CASES REEMERGE IN EGYPT AFTER SUMMER LULL 
 
REF: A) CAIRO 981 B) 05 CAIRO 8734 C) STATE 139889 
 
Sensitive but unclassified, please protect accordingly. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Several new cases of H5N1 avian influenza 
(AI) emerged in backyard poultry farms in August and 
September, following a relative lull in outbreaks in the 
early summer.  Both the Ministers of Health and Agriculture 
expressed concern about recent outbreaks. The re-emergence of 
live bird markets, especially in the month leading up to 
Ramadan, may be attributing to recent outbreaks.  Egypt's 
poultry market, devastated by last year by the virus, is 
recovering.  Post's Avian Influenza Working Group (AIWG) met 
September 12 to discuss disseminating information to the 
AMCIT community and coordination with the GOE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------- 
AI REEMERGES IN BACKYARD POULTRY FARMS 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Following a decline in the number of reported cases 
this summer, a second wave of H5N1 influenza appeared in 
backyard poultry flocks on August 24, when three new sites 
were reported in Sohag and Giza.  On September 30, the GOE 
reported two new cases of H5N1 in backyard flocks in the 
Damietta and Giza governorates.  Several days before, the 
Ministry of Health and Population (MOHP) announced a new case 
in Aswan, also in a backyard farm.  Officials reportedly 
culled all birds within a one mile radius.  Since AI was 
first detected in February 2006, at least 20 million birds 
have been culled.  AI, which exists in 21 of 26 governorates, 
infected 14 humans last spring, 6 of whom died.  No new human 
cases have been reported since May 2006.  The MOHP is 
conducting a large-scale vaccination campaign to combat the 
disease, but recognizes that reaching out to backyard farmers 
is a challenge. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
MINISTERS OF HEALTH, AGRICULTURE CONCERNED OVER OUTBREAK 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) On September 20, a NAMRU-3 representative met with 
Minister of Health and Population Dr. Hatem Mostafa El 
Gabaly, who expressed great concern over recent outbreaks, 
and the possibility that the virus may become endemic.  MOHP 
officials do not know if the current virus represents a 
reemergence of the same strain that caused the spring 
outbreak, or a new strain introduced by migratory birds or 
illicit poultry smuggling.  NAMRU-3 recently determined 
through phylogenetic sequence analysis of H5N1 virus carried 
by a wild teal found in December 2005, that the bird species 
may have carried the parent of the virus that caused the 
spring outbreak.  This finding supports the claim that 
migratory birds brought the virus to Egypt, but most believe 
it is now being actively spread through poultry.  NAMRU 
offered to perform sequence analysis on virus strains found 
in the new outbreaks in Upper Egypt, but so far MOA has not 
accepted this offer. 
 
¶4. (SBU) In a September 11 meeting with Minister of 
Agriculture (MOA) Amin Ahmed Abaza, FAS Counselor, along with 
officers from the American Soybean Association/United Soybean 
(ASA/US), discussed the current AI situation, which Abaza 
acknowledged is "less than optimal."  ASA/US vets stressed 
robust surveillance and vaccination programs are necessary to 
truly contain the disease.  They pointed out that Thailand,s 
success in controlling the virus stemmed from precise 
surveillance, tightened biosecurity, and strict stamping-out 
policies, in close coordination with the private sector. 
Abaza agreed, but said it is politically impossible to close 
down backyard and small farmers and move toward a production 
system of complete confinement.  He also noted that in 
Thailand, private industry made financial contributions to 
overall control efforts, an unlikely scenario in Egypt. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
GOE AND DONORS DISCUSS EFFORTS, NEXT STEPS 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (U) In response to recent outbreaks and the impending flu 
season, the UN Disaster Management Team chaired a meeting on 
September 11 with GOE officials, donor agencies and NGOs to 
ensure coordination.  GOE officials highlighted current 
efforts including the following: 
 
--GOE is finalizing a national strategic action plan for 
pandemic flu. They are updating the integrated national 
contingency plan for AI. 
 
--MOHP is training health care professionals in 20 
governorates, including 4000 physicians, as well as nurses 
and healthcare administrators. They conducted public 
awareness outreach to 121,000 people in non-urban areas. They 
are re-airing TV public service announcements used during 
last year's outbreak. 
 
--The Veterinary Serum and Vaccine Research Institute, an arm 
of MOA, has requested H5N1 virus and aims to create a vaccine 
using the Egyptian isolate. MOA is conducting active 
surveillance, and has carried out 3,339 tests since the end 
of the epidemic. Surveillance activities have been increased 
in rural areas nationwide, including 1037 villages with more 
than 13,000 samples collected from birds and 6,000 human 
samples in the last three months. 
 
-The State Information Service's portal on AI outbreaks and 
information is http://birdflu.sis.gov.eg/html/index.htm. 
 
--------------------------- 
POULTRY INDUSTRY RECOVERING 
--------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Last spring's regional AI outbreak placed Egypt's 
poultry industry in severe crisis (ref A), drastically 
reducing demand in a country that normally consumes 800 
million birds per year and relies heavily on eggs and poultry 
as protein sources.  In November, prior to the outbreak, 
Egypt temporarily banned all poultry and poultry part imports 
(ref B). The ban has been partially rescinded, and importers 
are bringing in frozen whole chickens from Brazil to meet the 
demand.  According to the FAO, demand for chickens will reach 
previous levels by January 2007. The Egyptian consumer, 
however, continues to prefer purchasing birds in live 
markets. To combat outbreaks in the spring, the GOE placed a 
ban on backyard poultry farms in urban areas, as well as live 
open markets. Despite an ongoing ban on these facilities, 
live bird markets have emerged again in several locations 
throughout Egypt. Case studies from other countries have 
highlighted a correlation between market movement and virus 
circulation. 
 
¶7. (SBU) After last spring's outbreak, the GOE compensated 
farmers whose birds were culled, doling out 3LE ($0.50) per 
bird culled close to an outbreak site and 5 LE ($0.87) per 
bird dying of the disease.  Sixty-four percent of the overall 
compensation, however, went to owners of thirty-five of the 
total poultry flock.  An estimated 4.5 million Egyptian rural 
families have or have had small backyard poultry flocks; most 
were not compensated in the ordered cull. 
----------------------- 
EMBASSY AIWG RECONVENES 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) On September 12, post's AIWG, composed of 
representatives from NAMRU-3, USAID, Public Affairs, 
Consular, RSO, RMO, and USDA (APHIS and FAS) reconvened for 
the first time since June. The group focused on outreach to 
the American community for the upcoming flu season, including 
distribution of a DOS-produced DVD on pandemic influenza to 
both Embassy staff and the American community at large (ref 
C). Consular is issuing a public announcement for the 
American community on FAQs on AI.  AIWG members also reviewed 
coordination efforts with the GOE, on both financial and 
technical assistance. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Comment:  While the GOE claims to be engaged in 
active surveillance, it is unclear how systematic their 
response has been. If their surveillance activities are 
limited to biosecure, highly-sophisticated areas, there will 
be a false picture of the real AI situation in Egypt. 
Considering how widespread AI was earlier in 2006, it is 
possible that AI H5N1 is endemic and we will continue to see 
outbreaks in years to come. 
RICCIARDONE