VZCZCXRO5205
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #2048/01 2840558
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 110558Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0151
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BUDAPEST 002048 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC - DAMON WILSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/09/2011 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON HU
SUBJECT: POSTCARDS FROM THE EDGE: FIDESZ CALLS FOR 
PARLIAMENTARY BOYCOTT, PUBLIC DEMONSTRATIONS 
 
REF: BUDAPEST 2029 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: POL/C Eric V. Gaudiosi; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: Addressing the diplomatic community 
October 9, FIDESZ leader Viktor Orban underscored his demand 
for Prime Minister Gyurcsany's departure as "the only key to 
stability" in Hungary.  The present government, he asserted, 
is "paralyzed" and lacks the political credibility to 
undertake reforms.  "National unity is gone," he stated, and 
"the people are under attack."  Maintaining that there is "no 
time for new elections," he called on the majority to "change 
plans or change leaders," reiterating his endorsement of a 
non-partisan "government of experts" to "manage the crisis" 
but signalling his willingness to cooperate with "another 
Socialist Prime Minister."  FIDESZ will walk out every time 
the PM addresses Parliament, and will continue to organize 
demonstrations in the near term and "again in the spring." 
Orban also emphasized his intention to boycott the official 
50th anniversary event and to organize "huge and hopefully 
peaceful"  events on October 23.  End Summary. 
 
GOVERNMENT PARALYSIS; PUBLIC PROTESTS 
 
¶2. (C) Orban opened his remarks by referring to a 
recently-released tape of Minister of Local Government and 
Regional Development Monika Lamperth, who is quoted as 
stating that upcoming government proposals regarding the 
distribution of local development funds will "overwrite the 
assumption ... that FIDESZ will hand out the money."  The 
Lamperth tape, he commented, is "the latest scandal" and 
further reflects the MSZP's deep roots to the "client 
network" of the communists.  FIDESZ will be "very tough" in 
defense of the interests of local governments, and the party 
has asked Debrecen Mayor Lajos Kosa to lead its efforts on 
this front.  (Comment: The appointment of Kosa, a moderate 
with an independent power base within the party, could be 
Orban's way to sideline a potential rival.  For Kosa, the 
position offers high risks and high rewards: he cannot afford 
to be seen as "the MSZP's favorite FIDESZ member," but if he 
can establish a working relationship with the government - 
and a secure funding stream from the government - he will 
heighten the contrast between his constructive opposition and 
Orban's obstructionism.  End Comment.) 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Turning to the broader political situation, Orban 
described the Gyurcsany government as "completely paralyzed," 
lacking the public credibility to carry out its reforms and 
the political solidarity to hang tough in the face of the 
economic impact of its austerity measures.  For its part, 
FIDESZ will "maintain public demonstrations" in the near term 
as the Parliament debates the budget.  Although "the weather 
can stop the protests," he stated, "the people are under 
attack" and could well return to the streets next spring. 
Orban specifically predicted demonstrations by groups 
including teachers, students, farmers, and the police, 
commenting that he could not "stop the protests," only work 
to "keep them peaceful." 
 
"THE MAJORITY MUST CHANGE ITS MIND" 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Orban predicted that the MSZP, "well-schooled in 
power," will realize the hopelessness of the present 
situation and see Gyurcsany's removal as "the only step to 
stabilize the situation."  He maintained that FIDESZ will 
"not exercise power without new elections" in order to "set 
the right precedent" for Hungary's "young democracy," but 
asserted that the situation is too serious to "take three 
months for new elections." 
 
¶5.  (SBU) So serious, he continued, that the political 
parties should agree to a non-partisan "government of 
experts" to manage the situation over the next 12 - 24 
months, a step he described as "political, not 
constitutional."  Such a government would have its specific 
powers and tenure limited by agreement of the parties, he 
proposed, and could be agreed "in a day or two."  Reiterating 
his commitment to "a constitutional solution," Orban also 
indicated his openness to the "far less effective" option of 
a new Socialist prime minister.  Ultimately, the "majority 
must change its mind" and "either change its plan or change 
its leader." 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Until they do, Orban continued, "national unity is 
over."  FIDESZ will walk out on the PM's speeches in 
Parliament and will cooperate with the MSZP during "the next 
government but not with this Prime Minister."  With 
Gyurcsany's departure, he noted, "anything is possible; 
without it, nothing is possible." 
 
 
BUDAPEST 00002048  002 OF 002 
 
 
"THE STATE IS THE ENEMY" 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Orban expressed his surprise at the 
"misunderstanding" of the government's convergence plan, 
characterizing it as revenue collection but not reform.  He 
insisted that "reforms cost money" and that "reforms and 
austerity measures cannot happen at the same time."  He 
reiterated his previous assertion that the best way to raise 
government revenues is to lower taxes, claiming that tax 
increases would drive up to 30% of economic activity into the 
gray economy.  The people "know how to cheat" and will not 
pay taxes, he concluded, because they know "the state is the 
enemy." They recall from the communist era that "opposition 
is legitimate." 
 
"THOSE WHO INVEST ... WILL LOSE" 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Responding to questions from the diplomatic 
community regarding the upcoming 50th anniversary 
celebrations, Orban categorically rejected the possibility of 
participation in government-sponsored events.  "The 
government is a lie," he commented, "and we will not 
participate in a lie" but rather organize events "100 times 
bigger."  He also questioned whether President Solyom would 
choose to participate in the events with PM Gyurcsany. 
(Note: We have received no indication that the President, an 
official host of the commemorative events, is considering any 
such step.  End Note.) 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Asked to comment on what will happen should the 
current impasse continue, Orban stated that growing "social, 
economic, and political unrest" would have "dreadful 
consequences" and could make it "difficult for Hungary to 
survive."  "The people will not be the ones to start 
violence," he continued, but "the solution is in the 
government's hands."  "Investors," Orban noted, are in "a 
difficult situation."  "The present situation cannot be 
stabilized," he concluded, and "those who invest in it will 
lose." 
 
 
FOLEY