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Viewing cable 06BUDAPEST2027, HUNGARIAN STAND-OFF: DEMONSTRATIONS, CONFIDENCE

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Reference ID Created Released Classification Origin
06BUDAPEST2027 2006-10-06 13:45 2011-08-30 01:44 CONFIDENTIAL Embassy Budapest
VZCZCXRO2429
OO RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHUP #2027 2791345
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 061345Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUDAPEST
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0136
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L BUDAPEST 002027 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT PLEASE PASS TO NSC - DAMON WILSON 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2011 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM HU
SUBJECT: HUNGARIAN STAND-OFF: DEMONSTRATIONS, CONFIDENCE 
VOTE APPROACH 
 
REF: BUDAPEST 2005 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: POL/C Eric V. Gaudiosi; Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) 
 
1. (SBU) Hungarian politics ventured further into the unknown 
as FIDESZ stood by its call for mass demonstrations in the 
absence of PM Gyurcsany's resignation or removal from office 
by October 6. 
 
2.  (SBU) Although FIDESZ had initially rejected 
participation in the Gyurcsany government's planned 
confidence vote in Parliament (REFTEL), claiming that the 
open vote would be a farce, it reversed its decision on the 
afternoon of October 4 at the request of President Solyom. 
 
3.  (SBU) FIDESZ's website now features a large clock 
counting down to noon "deadline" on October 6, and talk of 
the ultimatum has drowned out more moderate voices.  Orban 
continues to drive the party to actions former PM Horn 
described as "without precedent in Europe" and former PM 
Boross characterized as "more in keeping with medieval siege 
warfare than modern politics." Although moderate Debrecen 
Mayor Lajos Kosa (FIDESZ) has criticized the party's use of 
"the tactics of last resort," even he suggested the party's 
call for protests now is an effort to forestall "open revolt" 
if the government's austerity measures go into effect. 
 
4.  (C) Comment: The distance between political conflict and 
open confrontation is narrowing.  Long-time political 
observers cannot remember a time of equivalent antipathy 
between the government and the opposition, and the confidence 
vote will not solve the problem.  As PM Gyurcsany has noted, 
this is fundamentally about the minority's refusal to accept 
the majority's right to govern. FIDESZ has set Gyurcsany's 
removal as its objective and set few limits on its tactics 
whatever the potential consequences.  And the risk is not 
just of domestic political gridlock.  Further deterioration 
of the situation could have serious international financial 
repercussions if foreign investors withdraw their capital and 
foreign creditors call in their loans.   Financial markets 
have already begun to reflect investor worries, with a 
weakened forint and depressed stock index.  A current 
analysis suggests that Hungary, a traditional foreign direct 
investment destination, may now be experiencing at least a 
period of net capital outflows.  End Comment. 
 
FOLEY