VZCZCXYZ0000
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBS #3447/01 2850931
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 120931Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3319
INFO RUEHLE/AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG 8284
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1681
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 8256

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 003447 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN LOCAL ELECTIONS -- FAR RIGHT STUMBLES, 
COALITION PARTNERS FARE POORLY 
 
REF: BRUSSELS 3382 
 
¶1. (U) In elections for almost 600 communal and provincial 
council elections on October 8, the Flemish Liberal party 
(senior member of the governing four-party coalition) fared 
badly, as did its Francophone Liberal partner.  Leaders of 
the Flemish Liberals have ascribed their poor showing on 
infighting, and anti-establishment sentiments in the public. 
They hope good economic news and the Prime Minister's talents 
on the hustings can help turn a dire situation around.  The 
Socialists lost seats in some of their traditional bastions 
in the French-speaking part of the country, but feel 
confident they will be part of a coalition come federal 
elections next year.  Christian Democrats had the most reason 
to smile.  In Flanders and, to a lesser degree, in the French 
areas, Christian Democrats won back much of the ground that 
this traditionally dominant party lost in the 2000 local 
polls. 
 
------------------------- 
Has Vlaams Belang Peaked? 
------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The far right Vlaams Belang (VB) captured seats in a 
number of communes beyond its traditional heartland in and 
around Antwerp, but failed to achieve a hoped for 
breakthrough in larger cities, most notably Antwerp, where 
the current mayor gained a plurality.  VB lost council seats 
in Ghent, suggesting to some observers that the far right 
wave had crested.  A VB parliamentarian with whom we maintain 
discreet contact told poloff the party's leadership was 
extremely disappointed with its lack of success in the big 
cities, which he blamed variously on immigrant voters 
concentrated in these areas, and lackluster candidates and 
internal disorganization.  Although our contact claimed VB 
had done well in the local elections, it was worried about 
"stagnation" and would review its strategy to determine "what 
happened in the major cities."  The party hoped to do better 
next spring in the federal polls, aiming to get 25-30% of the 
vote. 
 
---------------------------- 
Immigrants and Women Succeed 
---------------------------- 
 
¶3. (U) Immigrants and women scored noteworthy gains. 
One-third of the newly-elected councilors are women, and the 
number of Belgians of immigrant descent (primarily of 
Moroccan and Turkish-origin) increased significantly.  In the 
fifteen biggest Flemish cities, the number of foreign origin 
councilors more than doubled from sixteen to 40.  In the 
Brussels communes, the increase was even more striking:  from 
fourteen elected officials in 1994 (mainly of Arab origin), 
to 91 in 2000, and 145 in 
2006, with representatives of Moroccan, Turkish, and 
Congolese origin, among others.  With two exceptions, each of 
the nineteen Brussels communes now has at least one elected 
official of foreign origin.  The gains were less spectacular, 
but still notable in the French-speaking region. 
 
---------------------------------- 
Comment: Liberals Out, Leterme In? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Most analysts agreed the local elections gave the 
Christian Democrats momentum for next year's federal polls. 
While the local success of key Flemish Liberal Ministers 
offered the Liberals energy and hope for 2007, the Liberals 
are still in a deep hole, particularly on the economic front. 
 The Flemish Socialists have warned their Liberal coalition 
partners to "straighten up," i.e., knock off the internal 
fighting, and get some successes to flaunt in 2007, starting 
with a sound budget, otherwise, according to a Flemish 
Socialist party official, "it will be the end of the purple 
coalition, and you might have the Christian Democrats and the 
Socialists in a coalition." 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Noting the gains made by the Christian Democrats, 
several commentators have pointed to Flemish CD&V leader 
Leterme as a, if not the, leading candidate for Prime 
Minister in 2007.  On the other hand, the smart money here 
believes it is too soon to tell if he actually wants the job. 
 It remains to be see if Leterme can balance the demands of 
an alliance with the decidedly pro-Belgian state French 
Socialists on one side, and the Flemish nationalists in his 
own camp.  Leterme's approach to constitutional reform talks 
early next year should give a good indication of his interest 
in the top job.  If he wants the job, he is unlikely to strip 
the federal government of too much power. Korologos 
 
.