VZCZCXYZ0002
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBS #3382/01 2790944
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 060944Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 3265
INFO RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1430
RUEHLE/AMEMBASSY LUXEMBOURG 8274
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1677
RUEHTC/AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE 8252

UNCLAS BRUSSELS 003382 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BE
SUBJECT: BELGIAN LOCAL POLLS -- FAR RIGHT LOOKS POISED TO 
MAKE GAINS, BUT NOT SCORE BREAKTHROUGH 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Belgium's October 8 local elections will 
prove one thing -- all politics might be local, but all local 
politics have national political implications.  In 
Dutch-speaking Flanders, that means that the far right Vlaams 
Belang party looks poised to make important gains, but not to 
make the dramatic breakthrough needed to breach the cordon 
sanitaire blocking cooperation with other parties, 
particularly in the major cities.  In the French-speaking 
Walloon region, the dominant Socialist Party seems set to 
hold on to the top spot despite numerous charges of 
corruption and cronyism.  Whatever the result, the governing 
Liberal-Socialist coalition will tell the public that the 
local elections are just that and that it will continue 
working until the federal polls in the spring.  End Summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
Vlaams Belang Moving Forward, But not as Fast as it Wants 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶2. (SBU) Several messages have emerged from the avalanche of 
often contradictory polls released over the past few weeks. 
The first is that the Vlaams Belang (VB) has increased its 
support throughout Flanders, in the process solidifying its 
position as the second largest party in the region. 
Unfortunately for VB leader Filip De Winter, increased 
support does not look like it will translate into a majority 
or near majority outside of the Antwerp suburbs.  The party 
has put most of its energy into scoring a breakthrough in 
Antwerp; polls suggest they will come close, but not gain an 
overall majority.  Failure to achieve a majority would prove 
a big disappointment for the party's leaders, who are eager 
to show their ability to govern, and for many of its voters. 
They have grown tired of casting protest ballots for the last 
ten years, and may want to have someone representing their 
interests in a position actually to do something.  VB may 
manage to muscle its way into government in a few small towns 
and rural areas where local politicians could prove willing 
to ignore orders from their leaders in Brussels if that is 
what it takes to hold on to their own seats. 
 
¶3.  (U) The other big message concerns the Flemish Christian 
Democrats led by Yves Leterme, the Minister-President of 
Flanders.  Most polls indicate the party is going to recoup 
ground lost six years ago.  This should translate into 
success in rural areas, but probably will not gain the party 
victory in any big ities.  Despite local scandals, the 
Flemish Socialists should retain their control of the urban 
areas.  Interestingly, the Christian Democrats probably will 
make a dent in the otherwise monolithic support that the 
Socialists enjo in the Muslim and immigrant communities. 
 
4.(U) The Flemish Liberals led by Prime Minister Verhofstadt 
look like they will do poorly in the elections.  In an 
attempt to prevent a complete rout, the Prime Minister has 
backed away from plans announced at the outset of the 
campaign not to get involved in the local races.  Of late, he 
has even started campaigning for the current 
Liberal-Socialist ticket in Ghent, joining his Socialist 
cabinet colleague in a series of mildly salacious billboards 
touting the accomplishments of the city's red-blue 
administration since 2000. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
Socialist Machine Clicking Smoothly in French Areas 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶5. (U) The Francophone Socialists (PS) will pay a price for a 
series of corruption charges against the party's old guard, 
but the most recent polls suggest only limited damage at the 
polls.  In practice, this means the PS will have to form 
coalitions rather than rule without partners.  French Liberal 
(MR) leader and Finance Minister Reynders has high hopes of 
becoming mayor of Liege, and the MR and French Christian 
Democrats may score an upset in Namur, where the governing 
socialists may lose out on power for the first time in years. 
 Development Minister De Decker (MR) is leading in Uccle, a 
Brussels suburb.  Defense Minister Flahaut seems to have the 
pole position in his native town of Nivelles.  Justice 
Minister Onkelinx, also PS, faces a tough fight in the 
Brussels region commune of Schaarbeek, a heavily immigrant 
area, but a setback may not necessarily harm her federal 
career.  The Front National, the far right group active in 
French-speaking areas, should gain numerous protest votes, 
notably in Charleroi, ground zero of the anti-corruption 
investigation.  Lacking charismatic and effective leadership, 
the Front should be in no position to hinder the socialists. 
 
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Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Because of the recent skirmishes inside the 
Liberal-Socialist federal cabinet, and the painstaking budget 
negotiations, the local elections of 2006 will reverberate 
more than previous local elections.  Disappointing returns 
for the federal coalition parties would not immediately 
unnerve Verhofstadt's cabinet, a poor showing is certain to 
cast a pall over the Prime Minister's attempt to kickoff his 
own campaign to keep his job.  Simply put, if he has a 
choice, Verhofstadt would rather do well in the polls, than 
have to explain why losing is unimportant.  End comment. 
Korologos 
.