VZCZCXRO8633
RR RUEHPA
DE RUEHBP #1198/01 2971558
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 241558Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY BAMAKO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 6308
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAMAKO 001198 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/24/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN ECON ML
SUBJECT: RPM FANS FEARS THAT TOURE PLANS PRESIDENCY FOR LIFE 
 
REF: BAMAKO 01154 
 
Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER GLENN FEDZER FOR REASON 1.4 (b) 
 
1.(C)  SUMMARY:  National Assembly President Ibrahim Boubacar 
Keita (IBK) and his Rally for Mali (RPM) party have not 
quietly accepted political isolation by President Amadou 
Toumani Toure (ATT).  His allies are responding with 
accusations that ATT plans to replace Malian institutions 
with cronyism and destroy the Malian tradition of political 
consensus.  One RPM party leader said ATT intends to stack 
the National Assembly with friends in the next election with 
the ultimate goal of revising the constitution to become 
President for Life.  The RPM is distributing bootleg copies 
of a controversial book highly critical of ATT's cronyism and 
the party's recent rhetoric likely reflects the approach the 
RPM will take throughout the presidential campaign.  Although 
it is difficult to gauge IBK's popular support, there are no 
signs that the RPM's efforts will rally anyone new to its 
camp - or that any of ATT's allies would risk endangering 
their own political futures by jumping ship.  Nor have we 
seen any evidence that ATT seeks to extend his mandate 
indefinitely via a revision to the Constitution.  End 
Summary. 
 
-------------------------------- 
Let the Marginalization Begin... 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C)  The Rally for Mali's (RPM) Secretary General Bocar 
Treta says President Amadou Toumani Toure (ATT) is "dangerous 
for democracy, dangerous for Mali, and dangerous for the 
region" because of ATT's "plan" to replace Mali's democratic 
institutions with a system built around him and his cronies. 
ATT's first move, according to Treta, was to marginalize the 
RPM in the National Assembly and the National Electoral 
Commission (CENI) (reftel).  Treta expects that ATT will 
eventually supplant a functioning party system in the 
National Assembly by pushing trusted friends and allies into 
seats during next year's Assembly elections, regardless of 
these candidate's party affiliations.  The new Assembly would 
then have a majority of "Friends of Amadou" willing to amend 
the constitution and extend ATT's presidential mandate 
indefinitely. 
 
¶3.  (C)  Treta says the RPM will continue to fight its 
exclusion from the CENI in court, and refuse to take up the 
two seats offered by other parties (reftel).  Treta wants the 
courts to invalidate the current CENI composition and replace 
it with one that allocates the CENI's 1st Vice Presidential 
post to the RPM.  As for the National Assembly, Treta noted 
that by law, leadership posts should reflect party 
distribution, but the RPM has decided not to waste efforts on 
an organization that will be replaced in a year, following 
the 2007 legislative elections.  Treta added that the RPM was 
concerned over the Malian Government's failure to agree on a 
unique ballot for the Presidential election or, as te GOM 
claimed, to open the electoral rolls to public scrutiny. 
(Note: Despite RPM claims to the contrary, the electoral 
rolls were available at www.dgemali.com.  End Note.) 
 
--------------------------- 
But the votes are out there 
---------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (C)  To stay relevant in Malian politics, Treta conceded 
that the RPM needed allies in political circles and must 
energize grass roots political supporters.  Treta insisted 
that the RPM's leader, Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK), was far 
more popular in the interior and among the more populous 
Bambara speakers in southern Mali than ATT, and that 
expatriate voters, particularly in France, would also back 
IBK (Note: 500,000 of the expected 6.5 million voters 
eligible to participate in the presidential balloting are 
living outside of Mali).  He claimed most Malians in France 
were bitter because ATT had failed to extract more favorable 
immigrant and visa concessions for them from the French 
Government and would therefore vote overwhelmingly for IBK. 
 
¶5.  (C)  Treta further piled on accusations that ATT 
introduced regionalism into Malian politics (ATT is from 
Mopti, to the north of Bamako) and planned to keep Mali under 
the thumb of northerners "for the next thirty years." 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Even as "the Sphinx" rears its ugly head 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (C)  Treta readily provided the Embassy a local copy of a 
recently released book attacking ATT and his cronyism.  The 
controversial book, "ATT-cratie: la promotion d'un homme et 
de son clan" (septel) has created a stir in the local press 
for its harsh criticism of the President and many (but not 
 
BAMAKO 00001198  002 OF 002 
 
 
all) of the ministers and advisors close to him.  The book, 
allegedly written by a former ATT minister using the name "Le 
Sphinx," was initially available only in France but is now 
being distributed in cheaply reproduced local versions by IBK 
and the RPM.  RPM party headquarters appeared to have at 
least one box of the books. 
 
¶7.  (C)  Comment: Treta's discourse reflects opposition 
sentiment towards ATT, and no doubt is a preview of the 
rhetoric the RPM and other opposition forces will use to 
attack the President during and after the campaign.  ATT's 
evident strategy of isolating, and then politically 
destroying, IBK is classic hard-ball politics.  Casting 
aspersions on ATT's long-term ambitions is equally typical 
mud-slinging; it remains to be seen if the mud sticks in the 
minds of the electorate.  If true, it might prove more 
effective at creating fractures among ATT's allies in the 
long term, many who reportedly back ATT for the moment as the 
best way to further their own political and presidential 
ambitions, than rallying more support for the RPM. 
McCulley