VZCZCXRO4527
RR RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHAN #1142/01 2831459
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 101459Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3674
INFO RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEV COMM COLLECTIVE
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0698
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANTANANARIVO 001142 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR S/ES-O 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV 
DEPARTMENT FOR CA/OCS/ACS/AF - DONLON 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ASEC CASC MA
SUBJECT:  THWARTED RETURN OF EXILE RAISES POLITICAL TENSIONS 
 
REFTEL:  1) ANTANANARIVO 01136 2) ANTANANARIVO 01135 
 
CLASSIFIED BY CDA GEORGE N. SIBLEY FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D. 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  The low-level political tension in Madagascar 
continues after the Government of Madagascar (GoM) closed a coastal 
airport on Saturday, October 7 to prevent the return of exiled 
political leader Pierrot Rajaonarivelo from Paris via Riunion. 
RajaonariveloQs supporters have peacefully stepped back for the moment, 
but from his fallback position in Mauritius the ex-Vice Prime Minister 
continues to urge his supporters to carry out retaliatory nationwide 
strikes and to promise he will return to Madagascar using whatever 
means necessary in the remaining days of the registration season for 
presidential candidates.  GoM officials are seriously concerned about 
Rajaonarivelo's ability to destabilize the political situation in 
advance of the elections and are apparently divided over his ultimate 
intentions - whether he is simply bluffing to create trouble for the 
current administration or intent on returning at any cost.  The 
perception of the GoM's ability to conduct peaceful presidential 
elections - and the credibility of President Ravalomanana himself - 
have been somewhat shaken by the events of the past weekend.   END 
SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) Following media reports last week that Rajaonarivelo was 
scheduled to land in Toamasina (also known by the French name Tamatave) 
on an Air Austral flight on Saturday afternoon, approximately 1,000 of 
his AREMA opposition party supporters gathered at the airport to 
welcome him. Given the tension surrounding the GoM's pledge to arrest 
Rajaonarivelo upon arrival for crimes of which he was convicted in 
absentia (reftel), the GoM dispatched approximately 500 troops - a 
combination of police, gendarmerie and military - to the airport in 
anticipation of unrest among his supporters.  The demonstrators quickly 
overwhelmed the barriers at the airport, despite the troops firing 
several tear gas canisters, but the confrontation did not escalate 
further and resulted in no injuries. The standoff culminated in the 
early afternoon with the Ministry of Transportation's decision to close 
Toamasina airport to all international flights, citing security 
concerns. 
 
¶3. (SBU) From his current location, now reported to be in Mauritius, 
Rajaonarivelo is urging all political leaders to join him in calling 
for President Ravalomanana's resignation and continues to publicly 
declare that he will return to Madagascar using whatever means 
necessary, no matter what the price, well before registration season 
for presidential candidates closes on October 14.  According to police 
sources, Rajaonarivelo may come on a Thursday, October 12 flight from 
Mauritius and will ask his supporters to meet him to prevent his arrest 
at the airport. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Rajaonarivelo is also calling for a general nation-wide strike 
in retaliation.  Post expects there will be some strikes around the 
country as at least one high-level Rajaonarivelo supporter in the 
parliament is traveling around the country to incite unrest; however, 
it is too early to assess the effectiveness of these appeals. 
Rajaonarivelo's party has also taken out full-page newspaper ads 
appealing to the international community to get involved or risk having 
elections that are not free and fair. 
 
¶5. (C) Some GoM officials we have spoken to are seriously concerned 
about Rajaonarivelo and his supporters' ability to destabilize the 
political situation in advance of the elections and are apparently 
divided over Rajaonarivelo's ultimate intentions - whether he is simply 
bluffing to create trouble for the current administration or intent on 
returning at any costs.  Believing that Rajaonarivelo may go so far as 
to charter a private plane, the Director of Military Affairs in the 
Office of the Presidency (protect) suggested that the general tenor of 
high-level government meetings taking place today is, "things are 
getting bad."  The Minister of Interior (protect) separately noted that 
a number of Rajaonarivelo;s colleagues and supporters had already flown 
to Madagascar from Reunion earlier last week, bolstering the belief 
that Rajaonarivelo's intent is to create trouble. 
 
¶6. (U) The weekend's events also confirmed a three-way split in the 
fractured AREMA party.  The hard-liners gathered in Toamasina announced 
their official support for Pierrot Rajaonarivelo's candidacy for 
president.  The faction faithful to former President Didier Ratsiraka 
will officially boycott elections.  Finally, the smaller and more 
moderate wing, AREMA Matotra, will officially back President 
Ravalomanana's candidacy. 
 
¶7. (U) Local media outlets reported on Embassy Antananarivo's warden 
message cautioning all U.S. citizens to avoid travel to the Toamasina 
area, spinning the significance of this message according to their 
political bias. 
 
ANTANANARI 00001142  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) COMMENT:  Last week, President Ravalomanana promised that all 
exiles are welcome to return to Madagascar but would face the judicial 
consequences upon landing.  GoM officials have clarified to us that the 
Air Austral flight was free to land in Antananarivo but opted not to do 
so.  Media reports have widely criticized the Presidentss decision to 
close Toamasina airport, and at this point we tend to concur that the 
decision made him look weak at best and fearful at worst.  END COMMENT. 
 
SIBLEY