VZCZCXYZ0016
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHAN #1134 2791236
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 061236Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO
TO AMEMBASSY ANTANANARIVO 0089

C O N F I D E N T I A L ANTANANARIVO 001134 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR S/ES-O 
DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E - MBEYZEROV 
DEPARTMENT FOR CA/OCS/ACS/AF - DONLON 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/06/2016 
TAGS: ASEC CASC MA PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: TEST-2 RETURNING EXILE RAISES TENSION IN MADAGASCAR 
 
 
Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY DCM GEORGE N. SIBLEY FOR REASONS 1.4 
B AND D. 
 
¶1. (C)  SUMMARY.  The planned return to Madagascar of an exiled 
political leader, Pierrot Rajaonarivelo, has the potential to trigger 
unrest in some parts of the country. Rajaonarivelo, a former Vice 
Prime Minister and the Secretary General of the AREMA Party, has been 
tried and sentenced in absentia for crimes arising in part from his 
role in the 2001-2002 crisis following the last presidential 
elections.  He is expected to be arrested on his arrival if he returns 
-- as he has told his supporters he will -- on Saturday, October 7. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU)  With presidential elections set for December 3, 2006, the 
leading opposition AREMA Party has requested amnesty for its exiled 
leaders to return from France to Madagascar to contest the election. 
Rajaonarivelo has headed AREMA since 1997 when Didier Ratsiraka was 
elected president and was constitutionally required to relinquish his 
political post.  Rajaonarivelo served as Vice Prime Minister in charge 
of Budget and Decentralization during Ratsiraka's term (1997-2002). 
Former President Ratsiraka is also in exile in France, but he is 
elderly and retains modest political support; Rajaonarivelo is the 
preferred AREMA candidate. 
 
¶3. (SBU)  President Ravalomanana has said publicly that the exiles are 
welcome to return, but must face the judicial consequences if they do 
so.  In March 2003, Rajaonarivelo was tried and sentenced in absentia 
to 5 years imprisonment for complicity and abuse of power.  After 
appeal the sentence was reduced to three years in May 2005, an outcome 
that has again been appealed by Rajaonarivelo's legal team.  In a 
separate case, Rajaonarivelo was sentenced to 15 years of hard labor 
for embezzlement in August 2006; his legal team chose not to be 
present at this trial to preserve the right to protest the legality of 
the sentence.  The government's position is that Rajaonarivelo should 
be jailed pending the outcome of his appeal; AREMA claims that the 
sentence was unjust and politically motivated, and that he should be 
free pending the outcome of the appeal in any case. 
 
¶4. (C)  AREMA scheduled a three-day national conference in the coastal 
city of Toamasina (also known by the French name Tamatave) for October 
7-9.  Our AREMA contacts report that Rajaonarivelo has left Paris and 
flown to the Indian Ocean island of Reunion on October 6, and that he 
will fly into Toamasina from Reunion on the afternoon of October 7. 
French Ambassador Le Roy called the Ambassador October 5 confirming 
this report.  Our contacts in the Madagascar police tell us 500 troops 
have already been positioned in Toamasina and that a designated team 
has been instructed to meet the plane and arrest Rajaonarivelo on 
arrival.  The arresting officer, who is known to us, is concerned that 
there may be a large crowd meeting Rajaonarivelo and that there might 
be significant potential for violence if he carries out his orders. 
He has apparently told his superiors that he will not carry out these 
orders if the situation appears likely to spin out of control. 
Separately, President Ravalomanana's Chief of Staff (protect) has told 
us that if Rajaonarivelo is on board, the flight is likely to be 
diverted to Antananarivo to effect the arrest away from the AREMA 
supporters. 
 
¶5. (C)  Earlier this week Rajaonarivelo wrote to President Chirac 
seeking French intervention on his behalf with President Ravalomanana. 
 He reportedly mentioned the risk of imminent trouble and repression 
if he were arrested. In particular, he expressed concern that he could 
not prevent the "cotiers" (coastal inhabitants) from seeking revenge 
against the Merina (the dominant ethnic group on the high plateau). 
 Several AREMA sympathizing newspapers have published paid full-page 
advertisements in advance of Rajaonarivelo's expected return.  In them 
Rajaonarivelo requests, in a lightly veiled threat, that the military 
forces stand aside, "the blood of the Malagasy people should not be 
shed with your weapon."  The paid ad also states: "In fact, if there 
is no freedom, it would be impossible to meet the hopes of the U.S. 
Embassy for a free and fair election." Many of our Malagasy contacts, 
disputing the French Ambassador's public claims of neutrality, believe 
the French Government is covertly supporting Rajaonarivelo in his 
effort to oust President Ravalomanana. 
 
¶6. (SBU)  The Emergency Action Committee met to discuss the potential 
for violence over the weekend and the Consular Section is preparing a 
warden message (Septel). 
 
¶7. (C)  COMMENT.  Politically, President Ravalomanana's popularity has 
declined since the 2001 election, but the AREMA Party's base of 
support, due to its own poor record when governing, is weaker still. 
Rajaonarivelo and AREMA have raised the stakes irresponsibly by 
playing the ethnic card.  Tensions between the coastal and highland 
people in Madagascar have a long history and playing on this division, 
if successful, risks turning a political contest into a quasi-ethnic 
conflict. END COMMENT. 
 
MCGEE